Year: 2016

People pay a lot of attention to the right track wrong direction number. They shouldn't. It no longer has any meaning. If it did, President Obama would not have been reelected, for you see 58% of the respondents saying the country was going in the wrong direction at the same time 53% of the voters reelected the President. No, what that number means now is 100% opposition from all members of the President's opposition party, coupled with those liberals, left leaning independents, progressives, and Democrats who are upset with Republican obstruction and growing income inequality and the power of corporations and billionaires, and Donald Trump. For example, I personally approve of the President's job performance, and will vote for the Democrat in the fall, but I think things in the country are going in the wrong direction. So the value of this statistic as a predictor for the presidential election is nil. It is more instructive to look at how everyone says they are doing personally. An end-of-year Economist/YouGov poll found that 63% of Americans surveyed said it was a pretty good year for themselves and their families. Those numbers suggest that the Democrat is still well positioned to win.

The HuffPost Pollster averages show Donald Trump with a double-digit lead and five candidates — Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Jeb Bush — bunched within 7 points of each other for second place. For four of them (except Cruz who is currently leading in Iowa) the primary may make or break their chances. And it is not only about in what place they finish but the strength of their finish. If the establishment choices are all bunched together in the low teens or high single digits, that is a disaster for the establishment. If one or two of them finish at 20 and 15 behind Trump and Cruz, that is much better. If Christie or Kasich don't finish strong, they are gone.

Erica Grieder:

Some Republican operatives, [Jeff} Greenfield reports, are considering a particularly dramatic response. Trump himself has indicated, at several points, that he might run as a third-party candidate if the Republican Party denies him the nomination. Those threats have some resonance, because an independent Trump wouldn’t have to skim off many Republican voters to effectively doom the GOP nominee in the general. But the same would be true if Trump himself is the nominee. The only difference between the two scenarios is that Trump is self-obsessed, prone to snits and grudges, and has never shown the slightest concern for how his histrionics might affect other people. By contrast, someone like Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney would pause to consider the potential consequences of their actions. A third-party run would likely guarantee Clinton’s election, and a coordinated defection among party insiders might lead to the end of the Republican Party as we know it. But if Trump somehow becomes the Republican nominee, I think Republicans need to take the risk. By doing so they might destroy their party, but Trump might destroy the country. Any party that would seriously nominate such a person for president is a party that should be put out to pasture, if not sent straight to the glue factory. Since June, Trump has caused more harm than most politicians manage in a lifetime. And if he had the power of the presidency? A few sweet nothings from Vladimir Putin and Trump would be tripping all over himself to give Alaska back to Russia. Trump’s sheer awfulness has already made it virtually impossible for me to make fun of Obama. It surely casts the relative risks of a Clinton presidency in a different light. She likely wouldn’t repeal Obamacare, but she can hardly make it worse.

Eugene Robinson at The Washington Post:

The economy continues to grow — slowly, perhaps, but steadily. Crime is at or near historical lows. About 90 percent of Americans have health insurance, which is closer to universal coverage than we’ve ever been. Budget-busting medical costs have slowed their ranks’ rise. These and other positive trends should continue, as meanwhile the nation lives through an election campaign that will not be able to dodge issues of fundamental importance. In 2016, we’re likely to see an exercise in democracy that is passionate, messy, at times ugly — but vitally important. Happy New Year, and note that the seat-belt light will be on through November.