Say Hello To…Cathy Cloutier’s Worst Nightmare
Her name is Kyle Evans Gay. She’s an attorney with Connolly Gallagher and lives in the same community where Cathy Cloutier, um, maintains a residence.
I think she’s odds-on to win, especially in a district with current registration like this: 14,725 D; 10,526 R; and 8770 I.
While I’m optimistic about her chances, I’m a bit concerned that her initial outreach to voters sounds like an appeal to middle-class and upper middle-class voters. I want to hear what she has to say about criminal justice reform, economic justice, gun control (an issue where Cloutier is exceedingly vulnerable), environmental racism, and the like. She represents a large swath of Claymont, including some economically-challenged communities. I want to make sure that she will be a forceful advocate for their needs.
Here’s her website. Let me just say that it’s early and, while Cloutier has made clear at every possible turn that she will run for reelection, the reality of an opponent of this stature can often change one’s mind.
Let the campaign begin. Or end.
No safe seats, 2020. While these NCC races are going to be locked up early, we need candidates that will help throughout the state. If Kyle Evans Gay gets a more path the general I could see her doing that.
I think there may be a primary, but I don’t, as of now, see it as being a competitive primary. And, with more than a 4000 D registration plurality, I think the primary might even help. If she locks up the D’s, she wins.
Actually, when I take a closer look at the map, there’s very little of Claymont in the district. A couple of apartment complexes in the northernmost part of the district and Greentree. That’s about it. Everything I-95 and east is in McDowell’s district.
That McDowell district is beyond funky. Drawn, no doubt, to preserve a third Wilmington senate seat. With roughly 1 senate seat for every 50,000 residents in 2020, I can’t see the city holding on to a third senate seat with only 70,000 living in the city. McDowell’s seat will be heavily redrawn to not look like a gerrymandered mess.
If Sarah McBride runs and wins, she may have to move elsewhere if the lines are redrawn and she wants to keep the seat in 2022.
I thought that there was no way for there to be three city districts 7 years ago. Bob Marshall was contemplating retirement/running for mayor , and I figured that was the one that would be divvied up.
It can be done, though. You can move the 2nd or 3rd out into McBride’s district. And/or, if a district has to go and DelCollo’s still in office, well…I don’t want to get too wonky, but that move can impact every district from the city to Sokola, Sturgeon and the 5th.
To the extent that there’s been population growth in the southern portions of NCC, Poore and Hansen’s districts, in particular, will likely need to be reduced in population. Maybe even Townsend’s. You can push the northern districts a little further south and things might be OK. Under that scenario, McDowell’s district might even move a little more back into the city. Which would enable the 5th to pick up a bit of Claymont and have enough population.
Actually, if one district has to move, I’d just as soon that it was the westernmost Kent County district that Dave Lawson currently holds. I doubt that there’s been much population growth there, so a move to Sussex, if necessary, wouldn’t impact the D’s hegemony in NCC. Kent County’s population has grown less than that of NCC. If a district has to be lost to Sussex, it should be from Kent County.
This all means that you want the right leadership team in the Senate in 2020. No more favors for the Colin Boninis of this world.
I apologize for the wonkiness. I had a chance to work on three redistrictings while working for the General Assembly. I’m a redistricting obsessive…
Oh, one more thing, (shut UP, already) as city districts move further out of the city, the likelihood that someone from the city will hold those seats decreases accordingly. However, at least you have three senators presumably protecting the city’s interests.
OK. I’m done. For now.
heard she raised over 10k on her first day
Money will not be a problem for her. I think there’s still a good chance that Cloutier does not run.