Some Post-South Carolina Primary Thoughts

1) Demographics show South Carolina’s Democratic Party is no more representative than those in Iowa or New Hampshire. It’s an open primary, so some Republicans dilute the voting pool, but only 7% of white South Carolinians are Democrats. So it appears that moderate white Democrats and moderate black Democrats are the ones who can’t agree on their candidate.

2) The Democratic Party was built on machine politics, and those tactics still retain power. From exit polls via CNN (emphasis mine):

South Carolina Democratic Rep. James Clyburn’s late endorsement Joe Biden was a critical factor for about a quarter of South Carolina’s Democratic primary voters, while a similar share said his announcement of support for the former vice president did not matter to their vote at all. Among black voters, the share calling it the most important factor in their vote rises to about a third.

That’s a lot of people making up their minds based on what someone in authority tells them to do. So, do endorsements matter? Apparently they do if you time them right.

3) The media reaction, painting Biden as having revived his campaign, was baked in. At no point did Biden lose his lead in polling; it merely narrowed as Sanders rolled up his victories, then reversed after the Clyburn endorsement. IOW, this has no more predictive value than Buttigieg’s strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. Though pundits are predicting this will consolidate the establishment vote behind Biden, I doubt it, because Bloomberg has concentrated his spending on Super Tuesday states. Biden will have to outperform him then before he can claim that mantle.