“Sarah McBride to Primary Tom Carper” Part 3
We’ve chatted a bit about how the shambling corpse has said he is running again and how that (by freezing out LBR) works to McBride’s benefit. But can she win? McBride is politically savvy enough to know “Can I win?” is the most important question leading up to a “go/no go” decision.
She would need to get about 70,000 votes in a primary. That’s my estimate based on the outcomes of the Harris and Scarane primary challenges. Having not run statewide, 70k looks like a tall mountain for McBride to climb, but it comes down to money and drive. Let’s look at drive first.
When McBride introduced Jack Markel on the evening of his upset defeat of John Carney everyone knew they were in the presence of a nascent force in Delaware politics. Sometimes you just know if someone has the goods, and the poised and confident young person the stage had it. Time passes…national press secretary with the Human Rights Campaign, Center for American Progress, the White House during the Obama administration, and the return to Delaware where my assessment turned out to be spot on.
Her timing was perfect. Her interest in a Delaware Senate seat caused Harris McDowell, to retire without putting up a fight. Her election garnered national headlines as she became the first transgender state senator in United States history. Let’s just say that it is not a resume that indicates that she’ll be satisfied with state senator.
It is also a resume that doesn’t suggest that she could fritter away her freshman year. And of course, she hasn’t. McBride worked her signature Family Leave bill from Milton to Yorlyn. While she does not meet my criteria of “having won statewide” she gets about as close that that as you can get without checking that box.
Next up: Money
And she can raise gobs of money nationally. Not to mention grassroots support from all across the land.
She’s almost certainly gonna run for something in 2024. She’s not even risking her State Senate seat.
I hope that she thinks big as opposed to thinking incrementally.
If this sounds like I’m lobbying her online, I am.
This whole series is lobbying.
The fact that Sarah wouldn’t be risking her Senate seat by challenging Count Carpula is perhaps the most compelling argument for why she just may do it. I’ll bring the stakes and holy water.
I just wanted to put it out there that Carper is likely keeping LBR from the senate because he’s a racist. No I won’t be commenting on that further.
No. I think LBR is reluctant to take on her former boss.
I disagree with her, and maybe she’ll change her mind.
I wouldn’t call Carper racist, and don’t think it adds to the conversation to do so.