My uninformed view.
While R’s have traditionally done better in special elections than D’s, it’s pretty clear that the Democratic Party has the better ground game this time. Massive phone banks and grassroots activity. Special elections often are more about the parties than the candidates, and that could well be the case here. I honestly don’t know what the R’s are doing–especially since the entire Suxco Rethug Executive Committee resigned en masse back on September 21:
Resignation of Sussex County Republican Committee
Greetings, fellow Republicans,
For those who are yet unaware, the Executive Board of the Sussex County Republican Committee has resigned. Know that this decision was undertaken after numerous hours of contemplation and not decided hastily. After days of deliberation, we feel this is the best course of action. We have been honored to lead and serve the Republican Party in our little part of the world although it has not been very pleasant recently.
Marilyn Booker
Lewis W Briggs, II
Hylton Phillips-Page
Betty Bridgeman
The Democrats certainly could, and should, have selected a stronger candidate than Jane Hovington. Perhaps, though, this was a Pete ‘n Val choice in the sense that, if elected, Jane would be a go-along ally of Stell Parker Selby–and our PAL Val. In fact, it’s my strong uninformed view that this is indeed the case.
The Republican candidate, Valerie Jones Giltner, appears to be a reasonable (all things are relative) R, likely in the mold of Ruth Briggs King. Having said that, she is a political novice with a lower public profile than Hovington.
In other words, the D’s have a shot. The registration skews R: 5558 D; 6164 R; and 4182 I. While the I’s skew towards the R’s, I expect independent turnout to be even lower percentage-wise than what the D and R turnout will be. And turnout is almost certain to be miniscule.
If the D’s win, it might give them, at least temporarily, a super-majority that would enable the House to pass that constitutional amendment legalizing ‘no-excuse’ absentee balloting.
I feel pretty confident that the D’s will make this race competitive. I’ll go 53-47 for Giltner.
And that’s the uninformed view from upstate. What do our Sussex Spies think?