Tomorrow’s Special Election In RD 37: An Uninformed View From Upstate
My uninformed view.
While R’s have traditionally done better in special elections than D’s, it’s pretty clear that the Democratic Party has the better ground game this time. Massive phone banks and grassroots activity. Special elections often are more about the parties than the candidates, and that could well be the case here. I honestly don’t know what the R’s are doing–especially since the entire Suxco Rethug Executive Committee resigned en masse back on September 21:
Resignation of Sussex County Republican Committee
Greetings, fellow Republicans,
For those who are yet unaware, the Executive Board of the Sussex County Republican Committee has resigned. Know that this decision was undertaken after numerous hours of contemplation and not decided hastily. After days of deliberation, we feel this is the best course of action. We have been honored to lead and serve the Republican Party in our little part of the world although it has not been very pleasant recently.
Marilyn Booker
Lewis W Briggs, II
Hylton Phillips-Page
Betty Bridgeman
The Democrats certainly could, and should, have selected a stronger candidate than Jane Hovington. Perhaps, though, this was a Pete ‘n Val choice in the sense that, if elected, Jane would be a go-along ally of Stell Parker Selby–and our PAL Val. In fact, it’s my strong uninformed view that this is indeed the case.
The Republican candidate, Valerie Jones Giltner, appears to be a reasonable (all things are relative) R, likely in the mold of Ruth Briggs King. Having said that, she is a political novice with a lower public profile than Hovington.
In other words, the D’s have a shot. The registration skews R: 5558 D; 6164 R; and 4182 I. While the I’s skew towards the R’s, I expect independent turnout to be even lower percentage-wise than what the D and R turnout will be. And turnout is almost certain to be miniscule.
If the D’s win, it might give them, at least temporarily, a super-majority that would enable the House to pass that constitutional amendment legalizing ‘no-excuse’ absentee balloting.
I feel pretty confident that the D’s will make this race competitive. I’ll go 53-47 for Giltner.
And that’s the uninformed view from upstate. What do our Sussex Spies think?
The Dems do have the better ground game. Not only have the phone banking and canvassing been effective in informing Democratic voters of the election, but fundraising has been successful An initial mailing for Jane Hovington went out to all Democrats who are permanent absentee ballot voters- its receipt coincided with the voters’ receipt of the absentee ballots. There were 3 mailings for Hovington. The Republican candidate has managed only one mailing. Jane Hovington is actually a good candidate for this district in that she has decades of involvement in Georgetown and the surrounding area. IF she can greatly increase the African-American turnout, she will have a shot.
You are probably correct that Giltner is favored and 53-47 is a reasonable prediction. if somehow Jane should win, she has little chance in winning again in 2024. No Democrat can with this district in a regular election, Lisa Rochester managed only 40% in 2022, and she was the top D vote getter.
Based on your reading of the race, perhaps I was too optimistic. Lisa only got 40%?
Just to be clear, this election would still leave 14/41 House seats in the hands of the GOP, which is just over 1/3rd.
However, that would make the House Dems one GOP vacancy away from a supermajority and despite his myriad flaws, GOP Rep. Mike Smith has been supportive of the Green Amendment, so this could give it a real shot of passing if the Dem Caucus is united on the matter (admittedly a big if).