I’m not posting my predictions as I am (a) personally invested in some of these races, and (b) I have no idea the extent to which the unprecedented flow of dark money into state legislative races will impact some contests.
However, someone who I deeply respect (although I disagree with a couple of their predictions), thinks the winners of key contested races will be: Rep. Nnamdi Chukwuocha, Michelle Booker, Rae Krantz, Branden Fletcher-Dominguez, Rep. Rae Moore, Gemma Lowery, Rep. Krista Griffith, Rep. Franklin Cooke, Rep. Kim Williams, Alonna Berry, David Redlawsk, Tyeisha Grier, Rep. Kerri Evelyn Harris, Adriana Bohm, Shay Frisby, Sen. Spiros Mantzavinos, Sen. Nicole Poore, and Sen. Kyra Hoffner.
OK, this anonymous (to you) predictor has laid it out there.
Let me hear what you think. Again, who you think will win, not who you hope will win.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Michael A Smith won the treasurer’s race. I don’t want him to, but he’s run a decent campaign. Lots of energy. Ted Lauzen is a Republican and incredibly boring and a bizarre personality. Gives me the creeps.
I find him dishonest, especially with women. I know of at least two examples of intelligent
women arguing with me about his past. When I told them that Smith ran against Frank Burns
in a primary under questionable circumstances, both women retorted that I had the wrong Smith and that this Smith never ran for office before. He led them to believe that he had never run for office. Was he ashamed of his past political history?
I did not vote for anyone in that race.
Take solace in the fact that it’s little more than a row office, and he’s little more than a twerp.
He’s ambitious too. If he weren’t so patronizing to the party’s elders, I’d say he has a decent chance of becoming the next Chip Flowers.
Whaddaya gonna do? One’s a stealth Republican, the other has the name of a Republican. So in November I’m voting for the actual Republican. Given Mike Ramone’s history we might at least get nude swimming out of it.
The way the Delaware Democratic establishment got behind a Republican (Lauzen) from Ohio who was literally donating to his future opponent, Mike Ramone only a few years ago…..and has literally done nothing in Democratic circles is a fascinating case study for sure. I think being able to spend 250k of your own money helps. But yea, just so odd….
! Kira Alejandro !
Poore, Nnamdi and Cooke both win on sheer power of name recognition. I feel bad for Pam but she wasn’t able to reach the southern extent of her district. I think Ortega also wins out – the domestic violence story fell out of the news cycle incredibly quick, and wasn’t leveraged as a campaign issue.
Mike Smith’s spending dominated the campaign and he’ll be our next bean counter
Moore/Williams is a real tossup. I’m not sure if Williams knocked a single door this campaign, but reportedly Moore was working the beat aggressively in the last four weeks.
Spiros is safe- Lopez didnt put in much effort at all.
Kerri Harris will sit another term. I listened to her opponent’s interview and it was unimpressive – lots of unspecific grievances and lacking in a clear direction/strategy.
Kira also wins and gets extra credit for the most effective campaign. She seized on the NIMBY issue in Yorklyn, and carefully packaged it as genuine environmental concern. She also had a more effective working-class cosplay.