I enter tonight with both hope and trepidation. Hope that a superior slate of insurgents can eat away at Delaware Way insiderism. Trepidation that the unparalleled influx of dark money will rescue some profoundly unworthy incumbents.
I place the over/under at 4.5 when it comes to setting the line for progressive pickups. Why? Because I have five that should flip. I think Branden Fletcher Dominguez, Rae Krantz, Michelle Booker, Shay Frisby and Kira Alejandro will win. Should any of them not win, it could be a tough night. There are some legit tossups as well. If all five of the preceding candidates win, we’ve got Adriana Leela Bohm, Tye Grier, and Rob Bahnsen to look at. If it’s a real good night for insurgents, then Shané Darby and Pam Salaam could also win. Maybe Jason Hoover. Maybe one or two others.
Polls are closing. I will keep updating the results here as they come in. If any of you get results before they’re officially posted, please share your info.
Oh, and, of course, your comments.
One way or another, I’ll likely have a hangover tomorrow. Hope it’s a happy hangover.
Taking an additional anti-anxiety pill. Not to mellow me out, just to make me less–anxious.
The Department of Elections site crashed.
However, the absentee ballots and early voting numbers were up for quite a few districts. Rae Krantz and Branden Fletcher Dominguez have strong leads. Shay Frisby leads Ray Seigfried, which is kind-of a surprise since we thought the early voting demographics worked a little against us.
More if/when the Department of Elections gets their shit together. Which is far from a slam-dunk. That agency needs an overhaul.
Spotlight Delaware is hosting real-time results that are backed up every 20 seconds, so even when DOE crashes the numbers are live on our site
https://spotlightdelaware.org/
I’m confused. It seems like statewide races are being called without machine votes?
AP calls aren’t official. Think of them as “projected winners.” They only call statewide races. Some are so clearly ahead in early voting, AP makes the call when their metrics are confident.
Thanks, Jake. Spotlight Delaware to the rescue.
Up-to-date results here:
https://spotlightdelaware.org/
OK, let’s look at the numbers. Rae Krantz and Branden Fletcher Dominguez will be heading to Dover, I’m calling it.
Rae Moore will win the D primary in RD 8.
Pam Salaam has a narrow lead over Franklin Cooke.
Shay Frisby has a narrow lead over Ray Seigfried.
Dave Redlawsk is likely winning that primary in RD 23. Has a big lead.
Alonna Berry is skunking Ruby Schaeffer in RD 20.
I’m calling it for Kira Alejandro. Guess Kyle Grantham will have to polish up his resume.
Helena Creamer is the surprise early leader to succeed Penrose Hollins. Jason Hoover is second, and the trade unions guy Curtis Linton is in third. Early, though.
Ted Lauzen will almost certainly be the ‘Democratic’ Treasurer nominee. Michael Miller is ahead of the Other Michael Smith.
Krista Griffith is up big early over Rob Bahnsen.
More numbers in. The Cruce/Bohm race is a nail-biter.
Whoa! Pam Salaam has pulled significantly ahead of Franklin Cooke!
Jason Hoover has now taken a narrow lead in NCC Council District 4. Curtis Linton is 400 votes behind.
‘Dr. Mike’ Katz has won the honor to get skunked by Chris Coons.
Man, Mike Miller is showing respectable numbers. if someone had spent a half-million on his campaign, he may have had a shot. 🙂
No updates in the last 20 minutes. 30.4% of the vote in so far.
I wouldn’t sleep on the race between Tye Grier and Lumpy Carson. Ol’ Lump has about a 70-vote lead, all from early voting. Which, as the incumbent, was likely.
But there’s no election day vote in yet, and I think Grier might have the advantage there.
60% of the results are in.
A whole lot more vote just dropped. Oh, boy, let’s check it out.
Shay Frisby has opened up about a 500 vote lead on Ray Seigfried.
Adriana Bohm has edged out in front of Dan Cruce.
Michelle Booker maintains a narrow lead over Stephanie Bolden.
I’m calling it: Krista Griffith will defeat Rob Bahnsen.
Pam Salaam is up by about 350 votes over Franklin Cooke.
Tye Grier has pulled ahead of Lumpy Carson!
Helena Creamer has moved back ahead of Jason Hoover. Stick a fork in the trade unions guy.
Dave Tackett has moved ahead of Mike Kozikowski.
Of course, if Tackett wins, it triggers a special election in that district. Here we go again…
82%
And, another dump.
Dan Cruce has edged back ahead of Adriana Bohm.
Just about ready to pop the cork over Shay Frisby. She has an 800-vote lead over Ray Seigfried. Perhaps I didn’t need that second anti-anxiety pill after all…
Michelle Booker maintains a narrow lead over Stephanie Bolden.
This Ayanna Khan-Flowers is leading in that three-way D primary to succeed Kevin Hensley. Didn’t see that coming.
Pam Salaam has just about put away Franklin Cooke!
Tye Grier is widening her lead over Lumpy Carson.
Jason Hoover has retaken a narrow lead over Helena Creamer.
This is shaping up as quite the night for progressives.
We’re up to over 90% of the vote in. No significant changes.
Looks like David Tackett will defeat Mike Kozikowski.
On merit.
District 33 separated by 7 votes at 90.0%. Every vote counts.
While Keonna Watson will likely lose to Nicole Poore, she’s at 47% of the vote.
Bummer about Keonna Watson. She ran it well, and it’s heartening to see how close she was, but Poore’s was just more visible.
And as for Flowers, I have 2 thoughts. 1. If Wall had won, that seat would stay with Republicans because of how unpopular Appo school board incumbents are right now and 2. I’m shocked I never received a text from Lowery’s campaign, not sure about a call.
Thanks for providing context. That race completely puzzled me.
Keona Watson was one of the hardest working and fearless candidates I have ever observed.
Throughout her campaign she was one of the most enthusiastic, energetic, honest candidates I have ever supported. She was quite the opposite of her opponent. I pray that she returns as a candidate. She would be such an asset as one of our leaders in the Delaware General Assembly unlike her opponent.
What Rep Dist is she?
As things now stand, here are the changes in the House:
In: Michelle Booker Out: Stephanie Bolden
In: Branden Fletcher-Dominguez Out: Josue Ortega
In: Rae Krantz Out: Deb Heffernan and her designee, Ed Mulvihill
In: Pam Salaam Out: Franklin Cooke
In: Tye Grier Out: Lumpy Carson
We’re looking at a possible sea change in that caucus.
Which progressives lost? Unfortunately,
It looks like Adriana and Shane lost.
That’s about it of the competitive races.
Shout out to Tye! An absolute legend.
Tye and Pam, couldn’t be more thrilled!
Absolutely gutted for Adriana and Shané. Just goes to show that the richest and whitest constituencies don’t care if you suck up to billionaires (SB21). (Highlands, Trolley Sq, Triangle)
However, in real working class/lower-middle class, and poorer areas WFP platform resonates. So I guess working families dig the Working Families Party message. Contrary to corporate Dem propaganda (a million bucks worth of it too).
Also, attention Ray Siegfried. Fuck off, now. No one likes you. How many times do you need this demonstrated. Lol.
Shay’s great campaign manager, Jamie Rubin, had the best post-mortem on Ray’s campaign:
“Signs plus Arden=Win??”
It never made sense, but who are we to argue?
I think you’re right. Adriana did extremely well in the working class portions of the District. Without Highlands, Trolley, and Triangle, she wins easily. She just got hit way too hard in those areas and couldn’t recover.
Whenever I drive through the Highlands I’m struck by the political signs for candidates like John Carney. They might have money, but they’re not very smart.
I spent my day at Lincoln Towers the Trolley polling place. The voters were among the most condescending and smug group of humans I’ve observed in the wild. Their “Hate has no home here” banners on their cute porches conceal folks with pure disdain for their poor neighbors in the high rise where they voted and all the good folks in Northside and Edgemoor!
The Highlands, Trolley and Triangle is pretty much the unofficial home of the Delaware Way.
Not Brandywine Hills?
Oh, yeah. Add Brandywine Hills for sure!
Which reminds me–these so-called white liberals LOVE having signs reading ‘Nnamdi’. Keeps their unacknowledged racism respectable. If ‘Nnamdi’ was still Albert Mills, they wouldn’t have signs reading ‘Albert’.