Blue Tsunami Looks More Likely–NYTimes Poll Shows D Senate Support Solidifying:
Democrats are ahead of Republicans in almost all of the seven battleground states that will determine which party controls the Senate, according to the final set of polls from The New York Times and Siena University before the midterm elections.
The surveys found that Democrats hold sizable leads in Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Kansas, which has not elected one since 1932.
To win a Senate majority, Democrats need to defend all the seats they currently hold and flip at least four seats that are currently held by Republicans. It has been seen as an uphill battle because many of the seats they need to win are in Republican strongholds.
But the new polls found Democratic candidates ahead in five states that now have Republican senators and effectively tied in a sixth. They hold leads in Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas and a narrow edge in Alaska. They are effectively tied in Iowa.
My thoughts? I was looking for one trend in these polls and did not find it–Republicans ‘coming home’. If anything, they’ve solidified in the other direction. Particularly in Maine and Michigan, with Texas and Kansas not far behind. I see no way that the ‘tsunami’ ends at the Senatorial level.
Traitor Of The Year–At least, until Fetterman switches parties:
Michigan Democrat Haley Stevens’ shocking last-minute endorsement of Mike Rogers, a Republican Senate candidate, has sparked fierce backlash from members of her party.
Stevens, who narrowly lost in the Democratic primary for Senate to Abdul El-Sayed, announced her support for Rogers after a feud with the El-Sayed campaign over an outside group’s campaign ad that blamed the high cost of living on US support for Israel.
Stevens had said she would appear at a campaign event if he denounced the advertisement, El-Sayed’s campaign disinvited her.
Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, a Democrat from New York, described the move as “a despicable betrayal”.
“Senate Democrats are united in our support for Abdul El-Sayed, because we know he will fight for the economic interests of working families in Michigan, unlike Mike Rogers, who is a tool of Donald Trump and billionaire donors,” Schumer posted on social media.
Nancy Pelosi, a California representative, posted that Stevens had “chosen to dangerously betray Michigan families’ healthcare, freedoms and future with her horrific endorsement”.
Zohran Mamdani, the New York mayor, also said that “working class people’s lives are on the ballot on Tuesday”.
“Haley Stevens just betrayed them by endorsing the very Republican she said she wanted to run against,” Mamdani posted.
So. ‘I’ll show up if you take back the mean things you said about Israel.’ How ‘junior high’ is that? Guess what? He’s gonna win, and Stevens is toast. She recasts herself as a victim in 3-2-1…Fox News in her future? The upside? This from Mike Murphy:
Angry Bitter Karens Magazine has a new cover!
‘I didn’t go after Kansans, I merely had a collection agency do it for me’. Roger Marshall’s closing ad. Somehow, I don’t think it will have the effect he intends…:
Ouch, babe. I’m calling it–that race is OVER.
If It’s A Tsunami, Here’s The Race I’m Most Interested In:
Ahead of a pivotal election night, (Dr. Annie) Andrews is in an unexpectedly tight contest against Darline Graham, a political novice who inherited the seat following the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, in July and now hopes to serve a full six-year term. The Republican candidate’s credentials—her family name and an endorsement from President Donald Trump—have voters in the Palmetto State questioning if she’s not just a “nepo senator,” especially when contrasted to Andrews’ hard-earned medical bona fides and political campaign history.
The result, a race that should be a safe GOP hold but Fox News has moved to a toss-up, has Republicans worried. In the two weeks leading up to the election, Trump rallied twice in the state he carried by almost 18 points in 2024, and the GOP top Senate PAC has pledged $5 million to prop up Graham and prevent a Democratic pickup that would be one of the biggest upsets in the country. Even the interim senator herself, who doesn’t seem to particularly enjoy campaigning, acknowledged feeling a “little nervous” about the polls.
Should Graham lose, this loss will be every bit as much on Trump as the imminent loss in Texas by Ken Paxton is. Trump hand-selected both of them. I mean, Can you imagine, South Carolina? It’s almost impossible to find a more predictable Republican state.
ICE Violating The Law. One can only hope that the election comes with consequences for ICE’s inhumanity:
Immigrants who have been granted release from detention after winning habeas corpus petitions in court are being re-arrested by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The Guardian has identified at least 20 cases nationwide relating to people who were detained after being released on habeas corpus petition in the last year, according to court records, attorneys and media reports.
Increasing arrests and detentions have led to immigrants filing more than 91,000 habeas petitions as they seek to challenge their detentions, according to research by ProPublica. More petitions have been filed since 25 January than during the past three presidential administrations, including Trump’s first term, combined, the outlet found.
A petition of habeas corpus – Latin for “you shall have a body” – challenges in a federal court the government’s right to hold someone in custody while their main legal case is proceeding.
But in a new development, people are winning their release only to find themselves quickly detained again.
“We’ve seen a very, very sharp increase in people who are released on habeas petitions, only to be very rapidly re-detained, often in violation of the federal court’s order,” said Bridget Pranzatelli, an attorney with the National Immigration Project.
Courts are taking notice. In an October ruling, the 10th US circuit court of appeals in Colorado denied the government’s attempt to dismiss a habeas petition on the grounds that they had the power to re-detain the petitioner. The government had a previous “demonstrated pattern of re-detaining” non-citizens who had been granted habeas relief, according to the court.
In Louisiana, in the case of another client of Pranzatelli, a federal judge held a senior federal immigration official in contempt of court for violating orders, demanding Ibrahim Mohammed’s release after he had been re-arrested three times by ICE, as first reported by the Banner. Two other federal judges, in Pennsylvania and Minnesota, have also held federal immigration authorities in contempt or threatened to do so.
Attorneys believe that certain re-detentions are connected to the Trump administration’s push to deport people to third countries.
“It’s really tethered to the explosion of third country agreements with primarily African nations in the past four months,” said Susanna Booth, senior attorney at Amica Center for Immigrant Rights, based in Washington DC.
The Trump administration is increasingly sending immigrants who cannot be removed to their home countries, either because the country will not accept them or they have protections from being deported there, to another country entirely, where they don’t hold citizenship and often have no ties. In the past, these immigrants were essentially safe from deportation.
The Worst of the Worst are in charge right now. Democrats simply must fight them tooth-and-nail following the election.
What do you want to talk about?
47’s administraition is truly a wicked one. In his first act, putting babies in cages and seperating them from their parents. Who ever heard of such evil? Thank God Independents seen threw this monster. Thinking Republicans did the same. Never so few has done such distruction to so many in so short of time? 47 has the whole world hating America. Who would have thought our president would pick on Canada? Canada is one of the best countries in the world and I have been to many. Pure unadulterated EVIL is what was elected as president of the UNITED STATES OF AMERCA in 2024. Do your job and replace this DEMON and save DEMOCRACY and THE RULE OF LAW. THE BLASFEMER MUST GO.
One point about the ‘7 battleground states’.
That is, that we already have a flip of one R seat assured–North Carolina, which is not mentioned among the battleground states. I predict that, by the time that seat comes up again, Carolina will have turned Carolina Blue.