Time To Make The Districts-Part Trois
In which we create a new Senate district downstate. But…will the ‘new’ district be truly new? I propagandize, you decide.
OK, kids, for those of you who came late to class, or just didn’t bother to show up, you will want to read these two seminal treatises on redistricting here and here. Well, perhaps not seminal treatises, but they’re a treat for statheads and redistricting fanatics like me. Plus, it’ll help you make sense of this installment, if indeed there is sense to be made.
Anyway, if you can only remember two numbers, let them be 21 and 40,621. There are 21 Senate districts in Delaware and the minimal permissible population for each is 40, 621. In other words, in order to create a new district downstate (we’ve already shown how to do away with two districts upstate) you need to cull that population from existing districts. The population’s there. Follow along with Chad Livengood’s article in the Journal, and you will see how to build a new district. For purposes of this exercise, I will first stipulate that every incumbent in the area under discussion today will have a district in which to run. The Senate D’s took the loss of Queen Bee (not to be confused with Aunt Bea) hard. They could try to craft the 15th to make it even more favorable to Cook, or to cut out Sen. David Lawson entirely (he lives in Marydel, on the DE/MD line), should they want to bring her back. The Senate must avoid this mistake. The 15th SD is already a solidly D district, people were just sick of Cook. Leave it more or less alone and let political nature take its course.
Let’s also stipulate that there is next to no such thing as a ‘sure thing’ for the D’s from the 15th SD on south. The good news is that there aren’t many ‘sure things’ for the R’s, either.
Keeping in mind the magic number of 40,621, how do we find that many residents to create a new district? Easy. Here are the populations of districts in the region:
15th (Lawson-R): 51,296 (Plus 10,675)
16th (Bonini-R): 50,103 (Plus 9,482)
17th (Bushweller-D): 47,176 (Plus 6,555)
18th (Simpson-R): 54,015 (Plus 13,394)
19th (Booth-R): 48,816 (Plus 8,195)
20th (Bunting-D): 49,455 (Plus 8,834)
21st (Venables-D): 44,799 (Plus 4178)
Of these districts, only Venables’ district, which is in the far southwestern corner of the state, is within the permitted +/- 5% population range. Other than perhaps a little tweaking of the lines to draw someone into the district or someone out of the district, I expect this district to remain pretty intact. Like SD 5 (Cloutier) in the northeastern corner of the state, due to location, these districts don’t lend themselves well to willy-nilly redrawing.
Excluding the 21st, let’s just add up the population available to create a new district, shall we? My trusty calculator spews out a figure of 57,085. More than enough to create a new district. And since districts can have a maximum allowable population of 44,897, there’s plenty of wiggle-room to make this work and to have districts above the minimum requirement and within the plus/minus 5%.
Ladies & Gentlemen, time to make the district. Based on the numbers, I propose that the ‘new’ district be a district for an incumbent senator. That senator? Gary Simpson of Milford. Check out the maps in the News-Journal article, and you can build the district along with me. Simpson resides in the far northern area of his district. He has by far the largest population growth of any downstate district. He can take the northern portion of his district, part of the southwestern portion of Bonini’s district (Bonini lives just south of Dover, so he doesn’t live in this area), and the northeastern portion of Booth’s district. I would actually take an even bigger chunk out of Bonini’s district, the southern portion west of the S. DuPont Highway, and an even bigger chunk out of Booth’s. Bonini could get his numbers back from the portion of the 15th around Viola and Woodside East, both immediately adjacent to his existing district. Bonini would also lose his Milford area ED’s to Simpson. Booth could pick up some extra numbers from the northwestern portion of Bunting’s district. There would need to be some adjusting and indirect shifting, but Simpson would retain his 18th SD, Bonini would have a tougher district in which to run, and Booth’s district would be more compact.
So, where, O where, is the new Senate District, El Somnambulo? My answer is, “Meet the new district, almost the same as the old district.”
The brand new district is the coastal portion of the district vacated by Gary Simpson. Call it SD 13. Or SD 4. The district would include both Lewes and Rehoboth, and would be a Democratic-leaning district. Which, come to think of it, resolves a particularly thorny political issue in a Solomonic manner. Here’s how. I will first quote from my favorite political philosopher, me:
Folks, the simplest way to resolve Senate redistricting is for Sen. David McBride, who actually lives in Lewes, 90 minutes away from the southernmost tip of his district, to retire. I make this proposal not (just) because he doesn’t live remotely close to his district any more (even though he maintains an official ‘residence’ there), and not (just) because he’s spent over 30 years in Dover. It’s because his district is ideally situated to address virtually every remaining redistricting issue in New Castle County. McBride was so obstinate during reapportionment that he insisted that every place he had once lived remain in his district, even as he had moved southward five times during his bloated tenure in the General Assembly. Also, since he had once paved the streets in Dunleith some three decades ago, he insisted that the predominantly African-American communities of Rosemont and Dunleith remain in his district.You know, to show that he was a civil rights pioneer, or something.
Perhaps I was a little too hasty in my call for Dave McBride to retire. Under my devious scenario, his New Castle-based 13th SD would become the Lewes-based 13th SD. And, because he lives in Lewes, he would be the incumbent senator for the 13th. How could he possibly complain?
Don’t you just love a happy ending? I know I do.
Coming up next: The House of Representatives!
Okay. This wraps up the Senate. Can you put it on the bottom shelf for me? Who is going to be the Senate winner and who the Senate loser?
Senate D’s are the winners. They have solidified their majority, they haven’t overreached, they’ve ensured that the new district ranging from Delaware City to Middletown is a strong D district, and they’ve still got four nice juicy pick-up chances staring them in the face: the 5th, 12th, 15th and the new Rehoboth/Lewes district.
City of Wilmington loses a seat. The other loser is whomever else loses their district. I’ve explained why I think McBride makes the most sense.
There are young lewes/rehoboth area up and coming repubs who have been cultivating their moderate brands in anticipation of a new district in the area.
too bad moderate repubs in lower delaware get the same treatment as the Jews/Gays
A RINO might make a decent candidate for that area, but he/she could never get past a primary.
i don’t know, the actual voters in the area are reasonable republicans. its the central/western sussex blowhards who yell and agitate on the rehoboth radio station who give sussex its reputation.
this is interesting:
http://stateplanning.delaware.gov/information/agencyshare/documents/hispanic_density_legislative_districts.pdf
one of the young RINOs I mentioned is hispanic. not really a selling point at the beach though…unless guilty repubs will vote for him to make themselves feel like they really arent racist, you know, because he’s the right kind of hispanic…
I agree with jason330 – he would never get past the primary and the 9/12 idiots – with posts like Colley’s on “bean festivals’ and immigration raids at Breast Cancer screenings.
and “purity” tests – no gays, no minorities, pro-life in all cases, women bare-foot and pregnant, do away with civil rights, etc….
a moderate would be OK for eastern Sussex but not for the “wing-nuts” – remember how they demonized Castle.
It is what makes Sussex look so bad
i dont remember, did odonnell win the 14th?
The 14th is the Bruce Ennis district. No way she won that one. You probably mean the 18th, and I’ll check on it. I doubt that she won it, though.
I agree that a moderate R might have a chance in that district, Relatively speaking, Simpson is moderate for an R from downstate.
But I think D’s would be favored, and that the district would attract some real good possible candidates.
O’D won 7 of the 20 ED’s that feed into Ennis’ district. (7&8 in the 8th, 5&9 in the 9th and 2, 6, 8 in the 28th)
As long as y’all keep your new district line east of Baywood on Rt 24 you’re fine. Long Neck Rd was the SCCOR breeding ground, WGMD listener base.
If you want to play it safe, don’t cross Love Creek. Angola area may be fine.. but just don’t cross into 19966. Thar be crazies.
This is mah new ‘hood. Trust me on this one.
Great stuff, Brian. Just a question, though. Wouldn’t a few crazies ensure either a Rethug primary or a crazy R candidate? Which might be even better for the D’s?
Otherwise, I’m with you, and I hope that those drawing the lines are paying attention.
Great piece El Som – and the new “18th” is a very obvious district…although I would suspect they would even consider bringing the line a little further south and include Milton into the district (which btw, I believe Lewes/Milton could also be a likely candidate for a House district).
For candidates, I think the bumbling teabagger Weeks is a no-brainer candidate (although I’m not sure his teabagging buddies upstate will support an effort again and I think he hasn’t a clue how to raise money)… Dem Candidates – there a couple that come to mind… Russ McCabe if they pull Milton in (if he doesn’t have a shot at a new House district), Frank Shade, or Andy Staton.
Again, excellent observations, Sussex Voter. I think that, on the House side, you could conceivably see TWO new districts along the eastern shore…might even do away with one of the districts in western Sussex to do this.
But that’s getting ahead of myself. I’ll start the series on the House next week.
Don’t think Andy Staton fits the new 13th (or whatever). Lots of new people have moved into that area, and I don’t know if a longtime Leg Hall denizen like Andy fits the profile. Having said that, I like Andy, and perhaps he’d be better suited to one of the new RD’s.
Sometimes I think that redistricting should be taken away from the political process as much as possible and be determined entirely by a set of objective criteria–criteria that is applied entirely nonpartially, perhaps technologically. I think in terms of a computer program that segments and distributes the districts according to population and, as much as possible, in approximately similar geometric shapes. Then let the chips fall where they may politically.
Short term, yes, I agree El Som.. but you have a whole decade’s worth of elections and I wouldn’t risk the GOP finally getting their act together and moving moderate as a strategy say in 2014 or 16 when their current nutbag strategy finally fails.
I’d rather, if given the option, stick the crazies in a Moderate R district so they undermine their own establishment candidates in primaries like they did with Castle.
Actually.. the Castle/O’Donnell primary numbers in Sussex might be a good source of guidance as to which election districts are moderate or loony.
COD lost in the 14th, but won the 37th, but she lost the 1st and 2nd of the 37th, which shows that the 37th is Dem east of Rt 5.
I like Brian’s idea and think he’s right. The crazies will eventually peter out and we need to plan for the future way past 2012.
Weeks, and O’Donnell and Izzo will all run again. The 9/12ers are not going to give up so easy, but as long as they run these crazy, flawed candidates, the Dems will wi.
El Som: You are thinking of Andy Stayton lobbyist and ex Trooper. Andy Staton (spellng) isa REALTOR and major supporter of Pete S. He is young and would make an attractive candidate.
JP: You’re right! Man, you’re out of Dover for a couple of years and fossilization sets in.
Sounds real good to me.
Yes – I was thinking Staton, Chair of the 14th, ran PS’s campaign, and I believe he was just appointed to DEFAC. He is a Washingtonian turned Sussex Countian and will probably identify with many of those in that area. Will be interesting to watch the players (on both sides) jockey for position.
but doesn’t he live too close to pete? they both live in the same development.
Phil: Former Reps Terry Spence and Bruce Reynolds lived right across the street from each other in the same development. They drew the district line right down the center of the street they lived on.
If the D’s don’t divide communities like the R’s did, then you’re right about a House run, it won’t work. But if Staton is considering the Senate race, there would be no problem.
Wow.. surprised the election numbers backed up my hunch. You learn alot from delivering pizzas. LOL
Impossible to divide RBY&CC
However, don’t forget John Brady is now a Democrat. He lives in between Millsboro and Rhoboth.
I voted for John, but he didn’t really run a very good campaign for IC. Still, he’s someone who would be an interesting choice, however, were I in the General Assembly, I wouldn’t push to create a district just for him.
The big plus on the House side is indeed Schwartzkopf. He knows what he’s doing, and I’m super-confident that whatever plans he develops for Sussex will be the most advantageous for the caucus.
Not so sure on the Senate side. Moreso than the House, they tend to think of themselves as independent operators and are mostly concerned about themselves, not the future of the caucus.