I have no idea what’s going to happen tonight… Do you?
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Iowa Caucus Open Thread
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Nate Silver is calling it for Santorum tonight.
Which should end it all for him then, like Huckabee?
3 possibilities – Romney wins with money and electability, Paul wins with superior organization among his followers, Santorum wins through old fashioned shoe leather and peaking at the right time (ie before the PACs can run negatives against him).
Democratic turnout will be an story as well, and if Obama loses any delegates, Fox will be sure to play that up.
David Nir crunches the CNN entrance poll (notoriously poor predictor though it is) as follows:
Paul 25.5%
Romney 23.1%
Santorum 18.6%
Gingrich 12.7%
Perry 10.2%
Bachmann 7.3%
Huntsman 1.4%
I repeat, entrance polls are very poor predictors, and don’t encounter for second-choice picks that come up in caucus procedure. But I’d say this pretty clearly shows that one of the top three listed above will win.
Interesting chat on msnbc right now.
According to the entrance polls, 13-14% of the electorate is over 30, a majority of which support Ron Paul.
CNN’s entrance poll pegs Paul’s support among 30-39 year olds at 40%, giving Paul a major lead with voters under 40.
I predict that at the end of the night, Santorum will still hate his penis.
Here’s some fun numbers from the CNN poll – Rick Perry’s support by educational level:
Never Attended College: 19%
Some College: 11%
College Graduate: 7%
Post-Graduate Study: 7%
A win for Paul would be a win for Gen X and Y
Updated entrance poll numbers (which are still garbage):
Romney 24.0%
Paul 23.9%
Santorum 18.3%
Gingrich 12.8%
Perry 10.7%
Bachmann 7.5%
Huntsman 1.5%
Other 1.2%
The first precinct is in. 9 votes for Paul, 4 votes for Perry, 3 for Mitt, 3 for Santorum, 2 for Gingrich, none for anyone else.
Current TV has Cenk and some of his crew PLUS VP Al Gore and Gov Jennifer Granholm. Sorta wonky commentary — they are talking about the fact that less than 10% of the caucusers are under 30 and more than 30% is over 50.
1% reporting, Santorum 26%, Paul 23%, Romney 18%, Gingrich 16, Perry 10, Bachman 7, Huntsman 0.
Im switching over to Curent, although props to Lawrence Odonnell and Chris Mathews for injecting a little reality into the commentary.
Romney’s kid trusts his Dad whole heartedly. What a snooze…
CNN calling Iowa for Obama. 😉
So Ijust saw some footage of lines of people putting votes in baskets — no ID check, huh?
6% reporting: 24% Santorum, 24 Paul, 22 Romney, 14 Gingrich, 9 Perry, 6 Bachmann, 1 Huntsman
4 votes (not %) for Cain and 2 for Roemer.
Fox News is sticking it to Bachmann. Also, they say that Paul is taking a healthy 21% of Evangelicals.
Current reporting that Gary Johnson is dropping out totally and endorsing Ron Paul.
Still a statistical tie:
11% reporting: 24% Paul, 23 Santorum, 23 Romney, 13 Gingrich, 9 Perry, 6 Bachmann, 1 Huntsman
Fox saying Santorum won a bellwether suburban Des Moines precinct.
DKos notes that 3/4 of the electorate self ID’d Republican, compared to 9/10 last go round. That’s the Paul factor at work, along with Independents who want to vote in a Caucus with something at stake.
Fox calls a strong performance for Paul in Des Moines “worrisome”.
So the Gary Johnson story is a hoax. Current reported what they heard on MSNBC and NBC is now saying that it is a hoax.
16% reporting.
24% Paul, 23 Santorum, 23 Romney, 13 Gingrich, 10 Perry, 6 Bachmann, 1 Huntsman.
Herman Cain and Buddy Roemer still being beaten by “No Preference”.
I switched to Fox just so I can listen to people who have a personal stake in this.
WaPo reporting 16% in –
Ron Paul 3,821 24.1%
Mitt Romney 3,650 23.0%
Rick Santorum 3,636 22.9%
Newt Gingrich 2,058 13.0%
Other 2,703 17.0%
Scumtorum is running away with it in Calhoun County (91% counted and he has 29.5% to Paul with 17.75% and Romney with 17.23%)
AP shows Paul 1st, Romney in second, just 14 votes ahead of Santorum.
NYTimes:
Paul 4,440 24.0%
Santorum 4,292 23.2
Romney 4,183 22.6
Gingrich 2,460 13.3
Perry 1,817 9.8
Bachmann 1,096 5.9
18% reporting
Major pro-Romney vs. anti-Romney fighting at Fox.
18% in – 4440 votes for Paul, 4292 for Santorum, 4183 for Romney
Thing is, Dole won in 1988 and Pat Robertson was a strong 2nd, well ahead of GHWB, and you see how far that got them.
If Paul wins this it will be fun watching the press pretend that second is really first and third is really second.
WaPo reporting with 22% in:
Ron Paul 5,348 23.9%
Rick Santorum 5,283 23.6%
Mitt Romney 4,988 22.3%
Newt Gingrich 2,978 13.3%
Other 3,814 17.0%
Obama smartly buys every square inch of the Des Moines Register’s webiste front page not showing the results: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage
CNN showing Paul leading in Des Moines, Romney leading in Cedar Rapids and Davenport
WaPo reporting with 24% in:
Rick Santorum 6,067 23.2%
Mitt Romney 6,060 23.2%
Ron Paul 6,018 23.0%
Newt Gingrich 3,502 13.4%
Other 4,518 17.3%
Herman Cain has 5 votes.
Apparently he thinks Iowa Nice: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLZZ6JD0g9Y
yes, I wanted an excuse.
CNN shows tiny Howard County going for Bachmann so far.
Amazing – Paul, Romney, and Santorum are within 50 votes of one another!
Other: 181 votes
Huntsman: 169
No Preference: 90
Herman Cain: 10
Buddy Roemer: 8
cool frickin’ results map!!! http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results
26% reporting, 3 way tie at 23%
Romney 6297, Santorum 6256, Paul 6240
WaPo with 30% in:
Mitt Romney 7,425 23.1%
Ron Paul 7,375 23.0%
Rick Santorum 7,358 22.9%
Newt Gingrich 4,248 13.2%
Other 5,715 17.8%
Gingrich leading in Winneshiek county
Scumtorum has won Boone County – 100% of the vote counted, he has 30%, Paul 21%, Romney 17%, Perry 13%
Still less than 100 votes between the top 3!
GOP Caucus electorate approximately 57% male.
I hope folks recognize the GOP Iowa caucuses will be decided by approximately 20% of registered Republicans in Iowa, or something slightly over the population of metro Wilmington. Further, the Iowa delegates (28, selected AFTER the voting takes place, will be 1% of the GOP delegates that will attend Nat’l GOP convention. This is simply a media event…and always has been. Incidently…the caucuses also permit open registration.
Gingrich leading by 1 vote in Monroe county
Top finishers in Emmet County, 100% in: Santorum 65 votes, Bachmann 47, Perry 43, Ronmney 42. I can’t think of a better summation of how the split in the anti-Romney vote helps him compete here.
47% reporting:
24% Santorum, 24% Romney, 22% Paul, 13/10/6/1 Ging/Perry/Bach/Hunt
Santorum 13,339
Romney 13,011
Paul 11,972
49% reporting:
Santorum 13,594 24%
Romney 13,204 24%
Paul 12,205 22%
Still no votes from Sioux City
52% reporting:
Santorum 14,606 24%
Romney 14,205 24%
Paul 13,145 22%
Lyon County goes 61% for Santorum. O’Brien county goes 45% for Santorum.
Santorum pulling ahead!
60% reporting:
Santorum 16,916 25%
Romney 15,688 23%
Paul 14,459 21%
Gingrich 8887 13%
Perry 7164 11%
Bachmann 3665 5%
Huntsman 351 1%
Other 235
No Preference 132
Herman Cain 28
Buddy Roemer 21
MSNBC officially projects Paul will finish 3rd
Santorum leading in Sioux City
88% Reporting, and it got closer than before!
Santorum 26,443 25%
Romney 26,398 25%
Paul 22,728 21%
Gingrich 14,244 13%
Perry 11,099 10%
Bachmann 5496 5%
Huntsman 628 1%
Over 100,000 votes in, and Santorum and Romney are separated by less than 50 votes!
Rick Perry wins Union and Taylor counties
1563/1774 precincts reporting, and 13 votes separate Santorum and Romney!
Santorum 26,552
Romney 26,539
1567/1774 precincts reporting, 19 vote lead for Santorum
Santorum 26,608
Romney 26,589
Paul 22,850
Gingrich 14,387
Perry 11,181
Bachmann 5526
Huntsman 629
ROMNEY PULLS AHEAD!
89% reporting, 1585/1774 precincts
Romney 27,101 25%
Santorum 26,976 25%
Paul 23,155 21%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 5%
Huntsman 1%
Gingrich now praising Santorum.
92% reporting (1629/1774), and Romney leads by only 13 votes!
Romney 27,830
Santorum 27,817
Santorum wins Sioux county (which is not where Sioux City is) with 46% of the vote.
LEAD CHANGE – Santorum now up by 47 votes
93% reporting (1645/1774)
Santorum 28,049 25%
Romney 27,977 25%
Paul 24,144 21%
Gingrich 15,097 13%
Perry 11,702 10%
Bachmann 5751 5%
Huntsman 668 1%
No Preference 122
Other 109
Cain 55
Roemer 46
Santorum leading in rural counties and Sioux City (Woodbury County). Romney leading in the other cities (Des Moines, Davenport, Cedar Rapids) and the suburbs of Omaha (Pottawattamie County)
1658/1774 precincts reporting, Santorum lead grows to 129 votes
Santorum 28,276
Romney 28,147
Bachmann delivering a speech that is 100% polemic against Obama.
95% reporting, and the gap narrows a bit – Santorum leads by 54 votes
1690/1774
Santorum 28,895
Romney 28,841
1700/1774 – Santorum leads by 109
Santorum 29.017
Romney 28.908
1705/1774 – Santorum leads by 113
Santorum 29,051
Romney 28,938
Only about half of Story county is in, which has thus far broken 27% Romney, 26% Paul, 21% Santorum. This ain’t over.
DKos Elections calculates that if the outstanding precincts vote in proportion to their counties, Romney would win by 85 votes. And there will be no recounts.
Santorum’s looking forward to more votes from Harrison county, where just under half has reported, and where he leads 25% to Paul’s 21% to Perry’s 18%. But Harrison is much smaller than Story, which is where Ames is.
Also, only 74% of Dubuque county is in – where Romney leads 31% to Santorum’s 25%
Perry is going home to Texas, in what is sure to be a precursor to his campaign’s end.
Santorum’s lead shrinks to 37 votes – here it comes.
97% reportinng (1714/1774)
Santorum 29,210 25%
Romney 29,173 25%
Paul 25,307 21%
Story county’s in, and Romney leads by 4! FOUR VOTES! 98% reporting:
Romney 29,638
Santorum 29,634
WNYC is ahead of AP. 99% reporting, and Santorum’s back up – by FIVE VOTES.
Santorum 29,662
Romney 29,657
DKos Elections crunches the new numbers, and now predicts a narrow Santorum win
Santorum still has 7 precincts outstanding in Harrison County.
WNYC revises its previous numbers – Romney now +12
Romney 29,657
Santorum 29,645
WNYC’s Santorum numbers continuing to mysteriously shrink. Romney +26
Romney 29,657
Santorum 29,631
WNYC reports Romney +22
Romney 29,676
Santorum 29,654
Romney +10
Romney 29,683
Santorum 29,673
Harrison still at 46%
DKos Elections number crunching (predicting how remaining precincts will vote) comes out with a projected TIE! Insane!
Harrison County’s in, delivering a big gain for Santorum – Santorum now leads by 27 votes.
Santorum 29,892
Romney 29,865
Santorum +18
Santorum 29,944
Romney 29,926
Looks like there’s a precinct left in Clinton County, which went 31% to Romney and 26% for Santorum
Another precinct remains in Keokuk County, which Santorum is winning 24% to Romney’s 19%. But Keokuk is smaller than Clinton.
Did I mention McCain is apparently going to endorse Romney tomorrow?
The AP site confirms it – only 2 precincts left.
Still waiting for the final 2 precincts, which represent Clinton City and Sigourney City, both of which have been going for Romney.
Not sure what just happened, but WNYC is now showing a 1 vote lead for Romney. This is historic!!!
Romney 29,957
Santorum 29,956
1775/1776 – Santorum +4. Keokuk/Sigourney City is in. This will go down to the LAST PRECINCT!
Santorum 29,968
Romney 29,964
Still no reporting from the final precinct in Clinton City, but apparently the Romney camp is declaring a 14 vote victory after speaking with state officials.
I’m going to have to assume Romney’s right, because its way past my bed time and I’m packing it in.
From a friend – tonight it’s like Mormon, Munchkin, Douchebag, Dolt.
When you add up the years and money spent by Mitt to secure this so called victory just what did each of those 8 votes cost him??? Now we have the old man John McCain coming out today to support a brother million heir forgetting that when he was a POW during Nam Mitt was avoiding Military Service by going to France to convert Christians to the Mormon Cult.