El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You*. Part 1…
*Well, not all as in ALL. Just every primary where I think I know enough to make a prediction. Some of which, invariably, will be wrong.
National Races:
U. S. Senate D’s: Tom Carper routs Keith Spanarelli. Over/under on Spanarelli: 12%.
U. S. House R’s: Tom Kovach routs Rose Izzo. Over/under on Rizzo: 11%.
Statewide:
Delaware Insurance Commissioner (D): Mitch Crane 47%, Karen Weldin Stewart 38%, Gallagher 9%, Spivack 6%. This race is not over yet. While trends favor Crane, and the party endorsement will help, you can’t be sure if the insurance industry will decide to ‘double down’ on KWS, and help fund a last-minute blitz. Won’t matter as long as Crane executes his game plan, but he has to execute his game plan. Gallagher and Spivack only serve to take votes away from the two contenders, and I think some of their supporters will recognize this before Primary Day. It also wouldn’t hurt if Gov. Jack Markell spent one-tenth the time helping a worthy D like Crane as he has spent working for the unworthy ethically-bankrupt Tony DeLuca. But then, DeLuca pushed for, and the Governor signed, the disastrous bill permitting the merger between Blue Cross/Blue Shield (DE) and Highmark to go through. The disastrous merger that KWS promoted and Crane opposes. Hmmm, that couldn’t have anything to do with the Governor’s staying on the sidelines here, now could it?
State Senate:
SD 1 (D): Dave Brady’s campaign has been depressingly dismal, as anyone who sees his signs seemingly put up at random at locations far out of his district can attest. Harris McDowell has run an effective campaign, at least when contrasted with Brady’s, and McDowell will defeat Brady, something like 61-34, with perhaps as much as 5% of the vote going to James Martin. McDowell was and remains a very vulnerable incumbent, but Brady gave people no reason to vote for him as an alternative. A political guy in the district who has no dawg in the hunt explained it thusly:
“Dave seems to be running because he’s still pissed off at the 2002 House redistricting” that eliminated his district.
He even reportedly pulled out those 2002 maps at a candidate’s forum. Let me state the obvious. The results of a 2002 House redistricting will have exactly zero bearing on a 2012 Senate race. I like Dave, and I like Harris. But Harris’ record in recent years, especially as it related to the SEU, has been far from exemplary. I wish Dave had been able to run a more coherent campaign in order to give voters a clearer choice.
SD 3 (D): Sen. Bob Marshall wanted to run for Mayor, but finally opted to run for reelection. I have heard that polls showed that his name recognition throughout the city was not nearly as strong as he had anticipated. While Eric Anderson may well have a bright political future, I don’t think the future is now, not on Marshall’s home turf. And Tim Meades doesn’t have a bright political future. Marshall should win fairly handily.
SD 6 (D): Only one candidate has poured a lot of money into this race, and that’s Andy Staton. He also has the Schwartzkopf machine supporting him. I don’t see this race as being competitive. Bob Frederick will finish second, and that Micheal Miller guy will finish up the track.
SD 6 (R): I could be wrong here. But, without Christine O’Donnell wielding her potent Not-A-Witches’-Brew, I believe that teabaggers will prove impotent this year, especially in eastern Sussex. Plus, Rethugs just might want to win one for a change. Plusplus, I think that statewide R’s want to rebuild their threadbare bench. Not to mention that (a) Ernie Lopez is an excellent candidate, probably the best that the R’s have offered this year, and; (b)even by Quirky Urkie standards, his run this year has been downright eccentric. So I’m predicting Lopez, 60-40, over Glen Urquhart.
SD 18 (R): Sen. Gary Simpson over Opaliski. Not a contest. Next.
SD 19 (R): I will once again say just how quiet this race has been. Surprising. When in doubt, go with a theory that could well be disproven: There are more than enough establishment R’s in western Sussex to turn back a less-enthused teabag base. So, I think Sen. Joe Booth triumphs by a bigger margin over Eric Bodenweiser than in 2010, make it 55-45. Maybe double-dipping is an attribute that is admired in western Sussex?
THE BIG ONE:
SD 11 (D): Is it possible for an incumbent to spend $150,000 on a State Senate primary race and lose? We’re about to find out, and I think the answer is yes. Especially when the bulk of that money goes toward campaign lit that, at some point, only reminds voters that they’ve never seen the so-called ‘incumbent’ who is sending out all that lit. This race would be over were it not for Gov. Jack Markell, who is simply not the guy I campaigned for and voted for. He would rather have the thuggish Tony DeLuca ‘enforcing’ discipline in the Senate caucus than to have bright legislators able and willing to think for themselves. I’m sure I’m not the only one who is keenly disappointed in Markell’s turning against the type of grassroots campaign that got him elected (along with big gobs of money). But, I don’t think it’s going to be effective. Bryan Townsend is an amazing candidate, and his team has run a textbook grassroots campaign. I somehow doubt that last-minute Markell robocalls are going to motivate voters to go out and vote for someone they’ve never met in DeLuca’s 14 years in office. And I know that robocalls WILL get out D’s who have met and can’t stand Tony DeLuca. Were it not for the full-court press by Markell, who should be but won’t be ashamed by his actions, this wouldn’t even be close. But, the Thugocracy has worked to make it close, and it will be close. However, it’s tough to run a campaign without a candidate you actually want the public to meet. Townsend 53-47. But only if people who want him to win help him to win by voting. No excuse staying home for this one. As close to ‘Good vs. Evil’ as you’re ever gonna get.
COMING TOMORROW: WILMINGTON, NEW CASTLE COUNTY, AND THE STATE HOUSE OF REPS.
If you can’t wait, tune into today’s Al Mascitti Show, and hear El Somnambulo predict ALL the key primary races. 10-12 noon on WDEL-AM, 1150 on your radio dial.
Uh, by the way, I reserve the right to change these predictions right up until the last minute. So, go ahead, give me strong persuasive reasoning to demonstrate that I’m wrong. In other words, something that I haven’t heard before, ad nauseum.
And, if anyone wants to defend Jack Markell, feel free. I never expected to agree with him on everything, but I never expected him to embrace the Dark Side either. Talk me down.
Tags: Andy Staton Delaware, Bob Frederick Delaware, Bryan Townsend Delaware, Dave Brady Delaware, Dennis Spivack Delaware, El Somnambulo, Eric Anderson Delaware, Ernesto Lopez Delaware, Glen Urquhart, Harris McDowell, Karen Weldin Stewart, Keith Spanarelli, Micheal Miller Delaware, Mitch Crane, Paul Gallagher Delaware, Rose Izzo, Sen. Bob Marshall Delaware, Sen. Joe Booth Delaware, Sen. Tony DeLuca Delaware;, Steve Tanzer Delaware, Tim Meades Delaware, Tom Carper, Tom Kovach
I liked your Lopez/Urquhart, but 60-40 overstates it a bit. How much infrastructure have the teabags built and how much of the O’Donnell vote was just lashing out? We’ll see. But I think they’ve built some. Lopez in a squeaker – 52/48
Markell quiet re Crane? I get it. There is an Dem incumbent.
Markell HELPING DeLuca? Markell is a politician. Look at it as politics 101. If DeLuca is a Dem incumbent and if he wins, Markell has his nuts in desk drawer. If Townsend wins, he is a dependable vote for decency and the right thing.
The only losing play is for Markell to have backed Townsend in the event of a DeLuca win.
VERY VERY disappointed with Markell on two fronts:
1. Support of DeLuca- Bryan is a great candidate , DeLuca is corrupt
2. Crane should have been endorsed by Markell- no excuses here (I already know the excuse anyway and it’s bull)
I expected better from our GOV.
Jason: My point about Crane is that he, like DeLuca (the only way that they’re alike), were both endorsed by the Party.
It’s not like Markell was endorsed by the fucking Party 4 years ago. Which is why I’m so pissed off at him. Four years ago, Markell WAS the Bryan Townsend of his race. Now he’s supporting the corrupt machine guy.
” If DeLuca is a Dem incumbent and if he wins, Markell has his nuts in desk drawer”
Thanks Jason! First good laugh of the day.
I’m not trying to excuse Markell, I’m just pointing out that over and above being a (mostly) clear thinking Democrat, he is a politician.
Yes. 4 years ago Markell was the outsider, but barely. It is conceivable that DeLuca and Markell have a seedy and sordid history that predates that election.
I am sorry you guys (Geek and the two Jasons) didn’t respond to the request for helping Jim Martin expose McDowell’s serious breach of ethics with SEU business. – I hope to tackle the issue later this week but have been swamped with NCC County stuff.
Jim and Dave have been both checking into the deceit and both are looking for people to help get the message out. If DL decides to take an interest in this incredible story, Jim Martin’s #652-3957 and Dave Brady’s #798-5532. I have recommended that they contact Nathans too.
Townsend will likely lose, which is unfortunate as he is smart, good, and decent.
FWIW, When I talked with KWS on Sunday morning, she was heading to Arden after another early event and then planning to be in Middletown for Chris Bullock’s fish fry later in the afternoon. She appeared with Bullock on TV later that night.
Also, it is very interesting to see a reference to Jeff Taschner above. What about that guy keeps him so invisible yet so freaking powerful? He was just named to the Governor’s Task Force on Charter School Law Improvement. He gets into the IC vetting committee and allegedly creates a ‘situation’? hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
I don’t necessarily like the idea of giving his wife Renee the seat as chair of NCC Council if it means giving her husband yet another avenue of power and control. The last thing NCC government needs is another powerful wedded pair heavily tied to HIGH DEM interests. The party elevated Mr. Clark by endorsing him as more and more dirt is surfacing on how closely his wife was involved in county ordinance creation (SEE DE WAY for the latest).
The Hill has a story today about the DNC and the teachers currently not exactly ‘in harmony” – http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-education-dems-20120904,0,6567521.story
By Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times
Teachers unions’ alliance with Democratic Party frays
So it brings to mind, where was Jeff Taschner during the curious dance between DE DEMs and the DSEA over RTTT – where the DSEA acted to eliminate collective bargaining for teachers in the low performing schools? Was his counsel loudly persuasive and successful at arm bending for teachers to follow Jack Markell’s initiative? I have to wonder. And worry a bit.
oops, the Jeff Taschner reference is on the Labor Day Open Thread not here
http://delawareliberal.net//2012/09/03/labor-day-open-thread-9-3-12/#comment-297361
“The last thing NCC government needs is another powerful wedded pair heavily tied to HIGH DEM interests.”
So as long as they’re not actually married it’s OK?
What is a high dem? Daniello smoking pot?
A HIGH DEM is a part of the Great Delaware Democratic Conspiracy. If you hang out here long enough, you get accused of being a part of it.
Tick, Tock 🙂
What will JP do when he no longer has KWS to pay him to be her blog spokesman?
I will continue to earn a nice living in my profession and FYI I speak for myself here, what I did get I got to enter data. Tick, Tock……..
Lopez was caught on tape coordinating with a PAC and has been forced to pay $40k before he can spend any other campaign money.
Urkle on the other hand isn’t a great campaigner or very smart. So it remains to be seen if Urkle can make hay with this.
Tony DeLuca ran away from Mike Matthews at the Labor Day parade when Mike asked him about a debate with Townsend. Ran.Away.
I want Crane to win. But I just don’t know if he can overtake a person that has been on the ballot numerous times in such a low turnout race. Hopefully he can pull it out, we need him.
@hmmmm – He can and he will.
I can’t bring myself to vote for Carper. I’m voting for the Green candidate.
SussexAnon. Tell us more about the Abscam you say Lopez was involved in. Thats news to us in Sussex. Cape Gazette says election commish reversed after she realized she sited incorrect law. Cleared Lopez completely.
While stories about illegal campaign contributions make the hearts of political scribes and junkies go pitter-pat, their effect on, say, a Lopez-Urquhart primary will be very close to zero.
Agree on Lopez-Urquhart, but probably by a smaller margin. Every sane Republican I know (there are still a few left) has told me that he or she is voting for Lopez. Of course, I also know a few insane ones, and they are all for Urquhart. It’ll be close, but I think Lopez will pull it off. If he does, he might even get some Dem votes in the general, given his very rational answers in a Cape Gazette interview. He also just comes across as a much more likable person than Urquhart, who seems to have been the guy who wrote Clint Eastwood’s monologue for him.
“…given his very rational answers in a Cape Gazette interview.” For every Dem vote won with rationality there is a wingnut vote lost.
Cassandra: “Tony DeLuca ran away from Mike Matthews at the Labor Day parade when Mike asked him about a debate with Townsend. Ran.Away.”
I do not usually post on blogs, but I saw something in the comments that was so obviously false that I felt the need.
Ms Willing, in an effort to take a swipe at Jeff Taschner, claimed that collective bargaining does not exist in low performing schools in Delaware. The implication was that Mr. Taschner as General Counsel for DSEA did something nefarious.
That is simply false. Collective bargaining does exist in Partnership Zone schools. In fact every district has had to negotiate with their local unions to reach Memos of Agreement or contract waivers if they needed changes beyond what was allowed in the existing contract.
Moreover, this is something that DSEA had to advocate for in the original Delaware RTTT application to the federal government; because NCLB does not protect collective bargaining normally in under performing schools.
If you do not know of what you are writing, then don’t write it. This should particularly be the rule when you attack the character of both an individual and an organization.
You are an idiot.
And I can tell you are an articulate genius based on that comment.
FWIW, When I talked with KWS on Sunday morning, she was heading to Arden after another early event…
That woman is in WAY over her head as IC. She could attend every church carnival & town fair from now til election day & she’d still be incompetent. Eff her–she’s just another “delaware way” hack.
The Establishment is pulling out all the stops for DeLuca. Matt Denn dragging DeLuca’s sorry butt through Norwegian Woods, John Carney apparently doing robocalls. I say ‘apparently’ b/c, if you got a call from John Carney, how could you really tell whether it was a robocall or not?
The entire fucking Democratic party establishment circling the wagons around an ethically- and morally-bankrupt sleazebag.
Ladies and gentlemen, YOUR Delaware Democratic Party.
Sickening. I know everyone in politics is going to disappoint me sooner or later. With Denn I had hoped for later. Much later. This makes it tough for Townsend.
Karma is a bitch:)
I’m not sure what you are getting at, but I’m sure I don’t care.
Crane has serious character issues. One only needs to see the people
he has working in his campaign.
@cassandra WOW your discussion has totally come to fruition in the Townsend v DeLuca primary!! Sickening . . .
June 25th, 2012 • Related • Filed Under
By cassandra_m
This Question of the Day is inspired by the article in today’s NJ by Adam Taylor taking a look at some of the current complaints and issues about the Delaware Democratic Party’s endorsement process.
May Townsend win and then send the governor a serious message.
I just can’t get off this Markell thing. 4 years ago, the State party went all-in for John Carney over Jack Markell. Daniello and company’s all-out effort for Carney in 2008 is now matched by Daniello and company’s all-out effort for DeLuca in 2012. Efforts, BTW, funded by those who contribute to the party, which is why I stopped contributing. This year, the party is expending nowhere NEAR the effort on any race other than DeLuca’s.
And, for his faults, John Carney is not a corrupt, immoral, or unethical person. DeLuca is all three. And here we have Jack Markell, who had to fight the Party thumb on the scale last time, becoming DeLuca’s biggest cheerleader this time. He simply is not the person I supported four years ago. Maybe he thinks there should only be one white knight in shining armor in the Democratic tent. Well, right now, there are none.
The Lopez comment is incorrect. He still has to pay $42k for his violation and cannot spend any money until he does so.
Question: Are RD 13 Mitchell and SD 7 Blevins being challenged in a primary, by the GOP or anyone for that matter? I haven’t heard anything and they are both up for reelection. Hmmm.
Crane loses to Weldin-Steward despite party support. The incumbent will largely win due to the womens vote and the safeness of the incumbent. Besides KWS winning the sign war, I have not heard one radio ad from Crane but lots from KWS. KWS wins by 65+ percent.
The County Executive race is complicated to predict. Lets look first at candidate Bill Shahan who I like to call honest Abe. I expected him to come out of the gate and gain lots of public notiriety. But that didnt happen. Im voting for him anyway. BUT, now lets take a look at Clark and Gordon. Both have brought a level of sleeze to the County and State and appear to be viable candidates for the job. The Dem party has endorsed Clark which appears to mean nothing due to lack of Union support. Gordon has appealed successfully to the Unions for support and done a great job so far with Editorials, signage, etc. But you have to say to yourself should you be stuck in a rut to decide which of the two “funded” campaigns you despise the least and cast your ballot accordingly? I have thought about this for about a week now, thinking of each of the two sleezebags and voting for the one I detest the least would be my vote initially. But then I thought Im not voting to bet on a football game where I am picking the expected winner, but instead voting to see a change in the corruption the two notable candidates bring to the table.
@Fly: You’re an idiot, plus you’re forgetting about all of KWS’s dirty secrets she’s collected since January 2009 that she thinks nobody knows about. To quote her pathetic stooge jpconnorjr: tick tock.
Crane ad is running on radio down here in Sussex. He also has ALOT more signs down here than KWS. I have also received 2 Crane mailers to KWS’ one and Spivak just sent me one. Spivaks was targeted to women voters.
Dennis Williams next Mayor of Wilmington…no discussion required.
Spivak is a McDowell plant. KWS only has supporters in Wilmington and fortunately there aren’t enough of them to elect her.
Spivak and Crane are both plants. Pansies
KWS will win in New Castle County and not you rude accusing people in Sussex.
I have seen two KWS signs in all of Kent and Sussex. And they’re unreadable, with a photo of her taking up a fifth of the space. A heck of a lot more Crane signs.
Touche Charlotte:) and just for the hell of it………Tick, Tock…
And please refrain from call people idiots on behalf of Mitch Crane!
@Fly: You’re a total pig, just like your girl KWS. I hope the editors kick your sorry ass off this blog.
@Fly: I only call people idiots when they’re real idiots like yourself and your bitch. And Mitch Crane has nothing to do with it. Get the hell off this blog and take your dirty mind and racist homophobic comments with you.
FlyOnTheWall — you will need to engage in smarter discourse than that in some of your recently moderated comments.
Cut out the “bitch” comments. You would think someone calling out racist and homophobic comments wouldn’t engage in sexist comments.
Have you actually ever met KWS? I have and she does not have it.
She is complaining and very whiny …. Like Mitch
Fly is done here. i moderated george’s last comment because it wouldn’t make sense without Fly’s last comment.
Let’s move on.
x
Charlotte your perspective though I disagree is fun to hear
@Pandora: Sorry about that, although “bitch” in this context referred to behavior, not gender.
Apology accepted, just tone it down – everyone, tone it down. Thanks.
Just a bunch of Kool Aid drinkers. Opinons no facts.
You have no idea what is actually happening. You are all just campaign managers and workers busting nads.
Tone it down, Charlotte. There won’t be another warning.
Must have struck a nerve.
@Charlotte – You people just don’t know when to give up, do you.
@JackDaws
Yes, collective bargaining does exist in PZ schools (although not at POC as it is a non-unionized charter). That said, the DSEA and the local, the CEA, had a chance to defend the CSD BOE as we attempted to protect teachers and they did nothing of import. Now, it is important to note that the President was Diane Donohue who later took a DOE job after stepping down as DSEA president in front of a union election.
Also of note, and to your point. Mr. Taschner would not have been in a position to effect the process that in my opinion was both a blow to the effectiveness of collective bargaining rights for educators and an internal hit to DSEA as an effective organization insofar as it defends it teachers.
The teachers in CSD’s PZ school ceded professional rights around selection, retention, and transfer for a meager increase in pay that came with additional time required. A bad deal for the DSEA and the local bargaining unit anyway you slice it. But again, Mr. Taschner would not have been involved in this in any noticeable or particular way from what I could see as board president that year.
SD 11 is Evan Queitsch’s to lose. He is a credible candidate who will either run against an over the hill, corrupt union electrician in Tony DeLuca, or a naive 30 year old lawyer who still lives with his parents in Bryan Townsend. Evan Queitsch lives in the real world, ultimate grassroots candidate, and ready to restore Delaware to greatness.
hahahahahhhahahahahaha John T
What Idealist said.
John T is clearly involved in some strange initiation ritual.
Who knew being Christine O’Donnell’s hired thug was real world experience?
Now I know that all John T needs for Evan to be viable is for Evan to call local school board members communists.