Okay, I’ll admit I’ve always had trouble with the “L” word, but, geez Louise, this is looking like a Landslide.
The NEW Swing/Toss Up States:
Nevada: Obama 48.9% McCain 46.8%
North Dakota: Obama 43.8% McCain 47.4%
Missouri: Obama 47.4% McCain 48.3%
Indiana Obama 45.5% McCain 48.0%
West Virginia Obama 45.2% McCain 46.3%
Virginia Obama 50.3% McCain 46.5%
North Carolina Obama 48.2% McCain 47.3%
Now I know Obama promised to change the map, but this is nuts! The best news out of all of these numbers? We aren’t talking about Ohio and Florida.
That is a little too close for comfort actually. Many of those have McCain within the margin of error (which is 3 or 4 percentage points).
But Jerry, these are the new SWING states. Click on the link and check out the map.
BTW, every state listed was Red in 2004. McCain is now fighting on his home turf.
Comparison: If Obama was tied with McCain in Delaware, Oregon, Connecticut, etc. That would be very, very bad for Obama.
Okay, I get it.
Good, Ohio and Florida were getting too arrogant. 538 had a 94.9% of an Obama victory this morning and a >50% chance of an Obama landslide (>375 EVs).
Let’s remember the lesson from 2004. Winning a narrow electoral victory provides zero political capital (even if W claimed otherwise), and this prevented him from achieving what he wanted in 2005 (social security privatization).
Obama needs a landslide to get the policy passed–responsible withdrawal from iraq, real health care reform, re-regulation of the markets, restoration of fair income taxation, etc.
None of these items will be easy, but with ‘the L word’, and with 58 or more Democratic senators, it can happen.
More work to be done …
Nope. I can’t relax until Nov. 5 – don’t care what the polls say. Who know what can happen in 3 weeks – that’s like a year in politics.
I love this video. Obama’s headquarters staff put it together. thinking about the day before the election. If you like music from Les Mis, you’ll really like it.
Les Misbarack http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ijYVyhnn0
My mom just sent me the video, June. Love it!
I’m not relaxing either, just providing a little inspiration! West Virginia, North Carolina, and Virginia??? Who’da thunk?
I agree with Jerry – this is not a landslide. A political “landslide” should be inching a lot closer toward 10 points.
Thanks for the video, June. It was great! To the barricades!
Pandora, can you put the video in a prominent spot so more readers see it? I think it’s worth it — better than some I’ve seen on the “front page.”
pandora
didn’t check, which polls are these?
I’ve learned this season not to rely too much on SurveyUSA, Zogby, or Gallup, as they have all constantly shown hiccups and wild changes in direction not visible in any other poll (and not consistent with each other)…
You’re right about changing the game–Obama has successfully done it, although the margin in even some of the old battlegrounds will be far too razor thin for Democrats preference; Florida in particular is likely to be a bit dicey for him–polls there in both 2000 and 2004 were exceptionally volatile for the two weeks right before election night….
I give Obama his due: 70% of his lead is due to excellent strategic choices, and only 30% to the fact that John McCain has, since August, managed to run a campaign that made both Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale look like geniuses….
Steve, it’s Pollster’s compilation. Florida is Obama 51%, McCain 44%. But, hey, anything can change. I’m hopeful, not stupid.
Patrick, the simple fact that these states are the new swing states is my point. Come on, all of these states should be firmly red.
June, I’m on my way out the door. Hopefully, another DL contributor will pick up the ball. I love Les Mis, but then again I’m an elitist! 🙂
Old news today’s poll much better
In the name of fairness, TT, I pulled the numbers from Pollster.com which combines ALL the polls. I’m well aware of the new polls, but chose to focus on trends lest someone has a problem with a particular pollster. If 538 has taught me anything it’s that all polls are not created equal.
Hi Steve,
“I give Obama his due: 70% of his lead is due to excellent strategic choices, and only 30% to the fact that John McCain has…”
And how did you arrive at those figures?
As a point of information:
This date in 2004:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct14.html
and today:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct14.html
Love that change.
Blue is my favorite color!
This doesn’t exactly fit in this topic (except it is about Obama). Read “Sorry, Dad, I’m voting for Obama” by Christopher Buckley (William F.’s son). He explains why at http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-10/the-conservative-case-for-obama/
Buckley got death threats and had to resign from the mag
I don’t believe any of these polls. They are calling land phones not cell phones. That alone skews the numbers.
The polls were wrong in the primary! Even the exit polls couldn’t be explained.
If Obama carries West, by God, Virginia, the world will surely end and it won`t matter anyway.
Ha! I don’t hold out hopes for West -by God – Virginia. I’m just happy it’s in play.
Here’s a way to help swing Florida –
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/dafdd1aa7b.
Enjoy and pass this on to your Jewish friends. It would be a mitzvah.
anonone
sorry didn’t see the question: how did I get 70-30; roughly I thought Obama should get slightly more than twice as much credit for smarts as McCain got credit for stupidity….
Steve,
LOL. Spoken as a true professor.