Game of Thrones, Episode One: Rules of the Game and the Governor.

Press play and have this music play throughout, to enhance your reading pleasure, and to give the appropriate musical backdrop….

The rumblings have started. The game of musical chairs begins as potential candidates start eyeing a particular chair and then nervously eye each other while the music plays.

The chairs available in 2016 are:
U.S. Representative
Governor
Lt. Governor
Insurance Commissioner

The additional statewide chairs available in 2018 are:
U.S. Senator
Attorney General
Treasurer
Auditor

So in working through this, let’s make some assumptions:

1. Governor Markell will not be a candidate for any of these upcoming races. This is because I assume, no matter who wins the Presidential election, Markell will be in the Cabinet. He is the perfect Democrat a Republican President would chose for Secretary of Education or Secretary of Commerce, and I can see President Hillary Clinton likewise tapping him for Commerce, Education or Treasury.

2. Treasurer Ken Simpler is not running for Governor, but for reelection in 2018.

3. In the same vein, and much to my personal chagrin, Attorney General Matt Denn will not be running for Governor either, but will run for reelection in 2018. For you see, Mr. Denn is the most progressive statewide official and has been since his arrival as Insurance Commissioner back in 2004. But, and this goes for Simpler too, two years on the job is not enough of a platform to run for a new one. Beau Biden recognized this back in 2010, back when he had been on the job of AG for 4 years, but spent 18 months of that in Iraq. And it is a shame too, since that was likely his last chance at higher office. But I digress. For Denn, and I am sure he is aware of this, a run for Governor so soon after a switch of office to AG from LG, coupled with his history of jumping from IC to LG after one term, an uncomfortable reputation might emerge.

4. Insurance Commissioner Stewart and Auditor Wagner will not leave their respective jobs voluntarily until they die. They will not retire. And they cannot be defeated in a primary. For Wagner, having an elected statewide Republican is still a rare enough thing that I am not sure another Republican can be found to challenge him. For Stewart, the only way she can be defeated is if you limit her primary challengers to 1. If she has more than 1 primary challenger, her 32% inexplicable base support in the party will allow her to win. But that will never happen because Tom Gordon and Dennis Williams will step again with their City-County-Stewart unholy tripartite alliance and save her with one or more primary challengers.

5. Beau Biden will not run for any office in 2016. His announcement that he was foregoing a 2014 reelection race and would instead run for Governor in 2016 was a smokescreen, a place-holding statement to preserve his political capital and position in the Party and politics should his health and/or prognosis improve. It was a wise, smart move on that front. But it is not our reality. Beau Biden is not running for Governor, or any office. And I am not going to pretend that he is. If he starts making public appearances, if he starts speaking at these public appearances, and if he releases information as to his health scare, treatment and prognosis, then I will take him seriously as a potential candidate.

6. Tom Carper has a one more election cycle in him before he turns into Bill Roth and someone Carpers him. And I say that wanting Carper to retire to the Florida beach with Castle with every fiber of my being.

So, having said all that, let’s look at who are the candidates for Governor first, because the candidates for this highest office will determine, in a trickle down that actually works, the candidates for the other offices.

This might be Tom Gordon’s last chance to run. If he had had his way, he would be already serving as Governor, having succeeded Ruth Ann Minner in 2008. He is 62 years old right now, so assuming the next Democratic Governor serves 8 years, he would be 72 in 2024. That’s probably young enough for one final run at the job, but it’s punishing it. I mean, do we really expect Gordon to stick around New Castle County for the next 10 years until 2024?

Without Beau running, we will see a confrontation between two of the Delaware Democratic Party’s largest power bases: the Biden clan, represented by Gordon, and Carperco, represented by Carney. How Gordon does depends entirely on how the county government is doing in a year. If Gordon is beloved and seen as a miracle worker as he was back in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, then he wins. If not, I think Carney wins.

On the Republican side, Lacey Lafferty, now, everyone knows that she is a complete and total joke right? She doesn’t have any legitimate supporters, right? I hope? Bonini is already running, and I expect Lavelle to get in, because I think the Simpler win gives him hope, and because in a Lavelle v. Carney race, Lavelle might actually have the advantage in charisma and personality.

I will say this, given the Markell Administration’s horrible approach to education, I dare say that the GOP, with Lavelle as its standard-bearer, might actually win this. But then again, this being an overwhelmingly blue state in a Presidential year, it is likely that Carney wins by 20. Objectively speaking though, this is the GOP’s best chance since 1988 to get back into the Governor’s Mansion.

One person I have not talked about, and he is the wildcard, in more ways than one, in this race, is Representative John Kowalko. You all are aware of Mr. Kowalko’s dismissal from the Education Committee by Speaker Schwartzkopf. As a result, Mr. Kowalko got a lot of progressive sympathy and letters to editors on his behalf published in the News Journal. There is even a petition to draft him for Governor. Depending on how this year plays out with education and the General Assembly, and given recent events in the Progressive Democrats for Delaware (his allies have solidified complete control of the organization), I can see him running for Governor. Running would require him giving up his safe seat in Newark, but that might be attractive to him if there is a Carney v. Gordon race where he could garner a significant disaffected progressive vote who are not enthused with their choice, and depending on how frozen out he is in the General Assembly.

Coming tomorrow, Episode Two, where we discuss who are the volunteers for exile in Washington.