Delaware Dem's Latest Posts
Your Predictions
El Som and I have posted our predictions. And we vary wildly from each other on a few key races. Where do our beloved readers and commenters stand? If you want, please post your predictions below in the comments from the following races. The House and Senate races I selected are the ones that are most competitive.
US Senator–Coons v. Wade
US Rep–Carney v. Izzo
Treasurer–Barney v. Simpler
AG–Denn v. Kittila
Auditor–Mayrack v. Wagner
6th SD–Snyder-Hall v. Lopez
10th SD–Hall-Long v. Marino
17th SD–Bushweller v. Warfield
18th SD–Emory v. Simpson
21st SD–Venables v. Richardson
4th RD–Brady v. Keesler
9th RD–Hortiz v. Hensley
10th RD–Matthews v. Travis
11th RD–Newlin v. Spiegelman
15th RD–Longhurst v. Lenzini
20th RD–Mayor v. Smyk
22nd RD–Mackenzie v. Miro v. Newton
29th RD–Paradee v. Kramer
30th RD–Gallo v. Outten
31st RD–Lynn v. Chick
37th RD–Rappa v. Briggs King
41st RD–Atkins v. Collins
Friday Daily Delawhere [10.31.14]
![Friday Daily Delawhere [10.31.14]](http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2874/11660162465_ddc71b6dc6_z.jpg "Friday Daily Delawhere [10.31.14]")
Happy Halloween! This photo of Frightland was taken by Jay Joslin on Flickr.
Thursday Open Thread [10.30.14]
Man, you get Republicans into a room with their donors and supporters and they really open up about their plans. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who is inexplicably considering a presidential bid for reasons passing any human understanding, said earlier this month in such a private gathering that “white men who are in male-only clubs are going to do great in my presidency.”
I’m sure, Senator. I’m sure.
Much like my predictions yesterday for all the state races, I will also predict all of the U.S. Senate races as well. Look for that on Monday. Here are some of the latest polls, inside…
Thursday Daily Delawhere [10.30.14]
![Thursday Daily Delawhere [10.30.14]](http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3949/15436580357_02fe96fe2f_z.jpg "Thursday Daily Delawhere [10.30.14]")
A bridge for the Wilmington & Western Railroad over Red Clay Creek near Yorklyn. Photo by Xzmattzx.
2014: My Predictions
Everyone knows who the President of the United States. But after that, it’s a crap shoot. A Jimmy Kimmel (I think, maybe it was a Jimmy Fallon skit) revealed that some people in New York don’t know who Joe Biden is. And we know moving down the electoral ladder, from governor to U.S. Senator to your representative in Congress to your state Senators and Representatives and your local councilpeople, that the smaller and more local a position, the less likely it is that people are going to know who they are. So the people who have the most power to affect your daily and everyday life, i.e. your county and city councilmen and women, your state representatives and senators, are strangers to you. But everyone knows Obama.
As a local political blog, we strive to keep you informed as to who the most important politicians to you are. But even we fail at that sometimes. National political news is easier to follow, because you know the players and the players want to be known, and you have many people wanting to tell you the story. If you want to follow local politics, your choices are limited, hard to find, and often lacking much substance. And its hard to follow events because the players are lesser known to you.
So to help in that, let’s start in talking about and predicting all of the offices up and down the ballot. And as you see below, I have included all the statewide and county level Row offices, even though I think some of them should not be elected offices (yeah, we shouldn’t be electing sheriffs, treasurers, recorders of deeds or wills, at any level of government).
Now, El Somnambulo has already posted his predictions for you. And he, along with our illustrious founder, Jason330, are very pessimistic, in their attitude, and in some of their predictions. I am a little more optimistic and realistic.
Wednesday Open Thread [10.29.14]
![Wednesday Open Thread [10.29.14]](http://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/GOP.No_.png "Wednesday Open Thread [10.29.14]")
Some moderateish GOP Senator (who is actually a flaming conservative mouth breather but in today’s environment, he appears sane standing next to the likes of tea party), like Rob Portman, said recently that, for the GOP to win in 2016, it will have to govern between 2014 and 2016. There is just a little problem with that. Governing in a divided government means compromise with the President of the United States, unless of course your party controls enough seats to have veto-proof majorities. Even the rosiest scenario does not predict that for the GOP. And the GOP cannot impeach President Obama and Vice President Biden, for that will guarantee Democratic victory in 2016 everywhere, in every office, up and down the ballot. And yet, they are campaigning about stopping Obama if they should win the majority. You cannot stop Obama and then compromise with him.
First Read says Republicans have two big challenges to governing if they win control of both the House and Senate next week.
“One, after portraying Obama as either incompetent, ruthless, or both, how do Republicans sell any kind of deal with Obama back to their base? That’s the problem when your message, especially on the campaign trail, is entirely against the president. It makes cutting deals with him AFTER the election more difficult. Two, to pass legislation in the Senate, Mitch McConnell and Republicans will need to get 60 votes — and that means placating the GOP conservatives (including those running for president next year), the GOP moderates (Susan Collins and the folks up for re-election in 2016 like Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, etc.), as well as centrist Democrats (Joe Manchin, Angus King, etc.). That won’t be an easy task.”
And come inside for the Governor polls I promised yesterday…
Wednesday Daily Delawhere [10.29.14]
![Wednesday Daily Delawhere [10.29.14]](http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3938/15598900526_e9157cc5c9_z.jpg "Wednesday Daily Delawhere [10.29.14]")
Hockessin Friends Meeting House, on Old Wilmington Road in Hockessin. The meetinghouse was built in 1738. Photo by Xzmattzx.
Tuesday Open Thread [10.28.14]
![Tuesday Open Thread [10.28.14]](http://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/blackvote-240x180.jpg "Tuesday Open Thread [10.28.14]")
“How can the national polls look so bad for Democrats (see the NBC/WSJ/Annenberg and Washington Post/ABC polls), but the competitive Senate contests all be within the margin of error? Here’s an answer for you: There are two different midterm environments taking place in the country a week before Election Day. The first is the nationwide one, where there does seem to be a wave building for Republicans and where the GOP has a huge enthusiasm advantage. The second election, however, is taking place in the top Senate and gubernatorial battlegrounds, where Democrats have spent a tremendous amount of money building field organizations and getting (as best they can) their side fired up.”
“This tale of two different midterm elections — not too dissimilar from what we saw in 2012 where the national and battleground polls didn’t match up — also helps explain why House Democrats are in trouble in states not holding competitive races like in California, Minnesota and New York (after all, embattled GOP Rep. Michael Grimm could very well win).”
We have a lot of Senate polls here today, and tons of Governor polls tomorrow…
![Tuesday Daily Delawhere [10.28.14]](http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3942/15493748266_aefc9917fc_z.jpg "Tuesday Daily Delawhere [10.28.14]")
Monday Open Thread [10.27.14]
E.J. Dionne Jr. on some underappreciated facts about the 2014 Midterms:
Underappreciated fact No. 1: The number of Democratic seats that are not in play this year.
In planning its effort to take control of the Senate, Republicans shrewdly launched challenges to Democrats in states that would not automatically be on a GOP target list. “Broadening the map” is wise when you’re in a strong position. Two of the states on that extended list, Colorado and Iowa, have paid off for Republicans. […] Just as striking is how many Democrats seem to have nailed down races the Republicans had once hoped to make competitive. This has narrowed the GOP’s path to a majority. Among them: Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota, Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Rep. Gary Peters of Michigan, who is likely to retain Sen. Carl Levin’s seat. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia is also polling well, though he was always favored against former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire is in a tougher race with former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown, but she has led most of the way.
[U]nderappreciated fact No. 2: How important economic issues have been in shoring up the party’s incumbents and in giving life to Democratic challengers in Georgia, Kentucky and (a much longer shot) South Dakota. [E]ndangered Democrats are campaigning on a different set of national concerns related to economic worries. These include equal pay for women, relief for student loan recipients and a minimum-wage increase. Several Democrats, including Shaheen and Michelle Nunn in Georgia, have made an issue of opposing the outsourcing of U.S. jobs overseas.
[U]nderappreciated fact No. 3: Given Obama’s low approval ratings, Republicans could have been running away with this thing. They’re not, because they look more extreme and out of touch than they did four years ago.
Monday Daily Delawhere [10.27.14]
![Monday Daily Delawhere [10.27.14]](http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3941/15622586485_e88b9bf632_z.jpg "Monday Daily Delawhere [10.27.14]")
Nearing peak color on Old Coach Road in Pike Creek. Photo by Xzmattzx.
Sunday Open Thread [10.26.14]
“Voter frustration with members of Congress is currently even higher than it was 2010 or 2006. Fully 68% of registered voters say they do not want to see most members of Congress reelected – 14 points higher than in 2010 and 19 points higher than in 2006. And roughly a third (35%) say they do not want their own representative reelected, compared with 32% four years ago and 26% eight years ago.”
“Yet unlike in those elections, when a single party controlled both the House and Senate, anti-incumbent sentiment now crosses party lines. Republican and Democratic voters are about equally likely to oppose the reelection of most representatives and their own member of Congress.”
Sunday Daily Delawhere [10.26.14]
![Sunday Daily Delawhere [10.26.14]](http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5613/14929153023_e6390e2e61_z.jpg "Sunday Daily Delawhere [10.26.14]")
Walker’s Mill, on the Brandywine River in Henry Clay Village. The mill was built in 1815 as a cotton mill, and was converted into a weaving mill in 1843 by A.I. DuPont. The mill operated until 1938. Photo by xzmattzx.
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