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Wednesday Open Thread 9.18.13
NATIONAL–SYRIA–WaPo/ABC Poll: Large majorities of all Americans, including Democrats, Republicans and Independents, support the diplomatic deal struck this past weekend where “Syria places all of its chemical weapons under control of the United Nations, which would then destroy them.” Democrats support it 86% to 12%. Independents support it 82% to 16%. And even Republicans support it 71% to 22%. I guess it is only our media and John McCain that don’t.
The 62 District Strategy – Early 2014 Edition
Today, if I had to give you my opinion on which Senate seats will be competitive and which will not, I honestly think only one will be: the 6th. Ernie Lopez faces a potential primary, and will apparently face a spirited challenge from Democrat Claire Synder Hall. If Lopez loses to Urquhart, then this seat becomes a Lean Democrat race. If it stays Lopez v. Synder Hall, then it is a Lean Republican race with a chance to become a true toss up.
Now, you may be wondering why I don’t think the 4th SD will be competitive, especially since Lavelle barely beat former Senator Katz last time, 50.1 to 47.5. Well, I believe that race was close because it was against an incumbent (Katz) who did his best to swing to the right after being the progressive challenger to former Senate President Pro Tem Tony Deluca. He had to swing to the right because Deluca made his district much more Republican in redistricting as revenge for the leadership challenge, which, ironically, ended up costing Deluca his own seat. So, now the district is more Republican. There is now no Democratic incumbent in office. Lavelle is in the Republican Leadership. He is very vocal and visible in the paper and on the radio. Thus, unless a major Democrat challenges him, I don’t see Lavelle losing this seat for a while.
Tuesday Open Thread 9.17.13
Noam Scheiber expects a government shutdown on October 1, and he thinks it will be a good thing since it will sober up the Republicans ahead of the debt ceiling vote.
Fortunately, a shutdown is almost certainly a good thing. Yes, it can slow the economy and wreak temporary havoc on people who rely on government services. But these consequences are nothing alongside the fallout from defaulting on our debt, which will happen if we don’t raise the debt ceiling by mid-October. That’s why Boehner’s inability to persuade conservatives to postpone their Obamacare demands until the debt-ceiling fight is in fact a hugely welcome development. It gives everyone a chance to sober up before we take on the substantially higher-stakes proposition of avoiding a debt default. In fact, if Boehner and the White House had both been a bit more pro-shutdown back in 2011, when this whole B-movie horror flick started, that year’s debt ceiling fight and the sequester may never have happened, and we might not be in the mess we’re in today. A little bit of shutdown, I’d wager, goes a long way.
Updating the Maps…
I was updating our State Senate and House District maps tonight, along with figuring out which of the Senate seats are up in 2014. As I was going through election results dating back to 1998 to determine the two different classes of Senate seats, I kinda thought it was unfair that one class of Senate seats always went two years after the “Everyone Runs after the Census” Election held in the second year of the decade, until I realized that other class of Senate seats always ran two years before the “Everyone Runs” Election. It was my “duh, here’s your sticker” moment of the day.
Anyway, come inside for the updated maps that we will be using next year.
Kudos to Senator Townsend and Representative Osienski
Starting last Friday, State Senator Bryan Townsend and State Representative Ed Osienski began participating in the Food Bank of Delaware’s SNAP Challenge, where they live for a week off $31.50, which is the average national Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefit per person. You hear all the time from evil conservatives about how good the lazy […]
Welcome to our newest contributor, ProgressivePopulist
Since the retirements of three of our long serving contributors (Nemski, Unstable Isotope, and LiberalGeek), we have been looking to add new contributors to the Delaware Liberal fold. Right now we have 7 active contributors, but we have found that having a group blog of around 10 contributors is what keeps a blog going and what keeps it fresh. So we have been looking recently for new talent. And we found some right here in our comment pages.
New State Revenue Estimates Due This Afternoon.
Given concern over the recent Moody analysis that Delaware is the only state in the union that could be facing a recession, and over our stagnant if not rising state unemployment rate, it is going to be interesting to see how the revenue figures are holding up after the Delaware Economic and Financial Advisory Council (DEFAC) meets today. At their last meeting, “officials predicted a 140 million dollar budget gap for fiscal year 2015[.]” So that is the marker that will tell us if our Delaware economy is getting worse or better. If that gap narrows, better. Widens, worse.
This should be fun…
Governor Markell will be holding three town halls up and down the state over the next four weeks. Starting off in Kent County tomorrow at the Delaware Tech’s Dover campus at 7 pm. The next one will be down in Sussex County on Thursday, October 3, at the Cape Henlopen High School in Lewes. And finally the Governor comes back up north to New Castle County on Thursday, October 10 for a town hall at Delcastle High School near Newport.
The Governor wants to defend his record on the economy, but I think there are going to be uncomfortable questions on education and campaign finance.
Monday Open Thread 9.16.13
We screwed up this weekend and didn’t give you an open thread. Our apologies. So I am posting the Monday Open Thread early in the morning today to balance that out a little. Have at it.
Over the weekend, the U.S. and Russia agreed to a deal on Syria and its chemical weapons. I don’t know about you, but I really do think that Obama played another one of his long game strategies here, and I think it payed off.
In the other big national political news this weekend, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is out as Fed Chair nominee. Mr. Summers informed the President of his intention to withdraw yesterday. Obviously the White House and Summers himself did a head count of the Democrats in the Senate, and if Jon Tester is publicly against you, then it could not be good. That clears the path for the Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen. And this also indicates the first clear victory of liberal opposition to President Obama. Liberals have opposed Obama policy choices before (public option, the Bush tax cuts), but have always lost.
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