Delaware Dem's Latest Posts
The Penultimate U.S. Senate Forecast
And now for our Senate Forecast. I imagine we will do one more of these on Monday. As the polls stand now, the Democrats will pick up a net 1 seat, increasing their total to 54 seats (52 actual Democrats, and 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats). The Democrats will pick up, or take away from the Republicans, the Senate seats in Massachusetts, Indiana and Maine. The Republicans will win seats in North Dakota and Nebraska, according to recent polling. Though it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Democrats can retain both of those seats. Heidi Heitkamp has led in recent polling in North Dakota, and Bob Kerrey just got the endorsement of Chuck Hagel, and recent polling before the Fischer internal had the race tightening significantly. If they do win both, the Democrats will hold 56 seats. Impressive feat in a year that Republicans were suppose to retake the majority.
The Polling Report [11.1.12]
![The Polling Report [11.1.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8050/8144693105_765ce26d31_z.jpg "The Polling Report [11.1.12]")
Nate Cohn: “Absent a possible but unlikely last-minute shift in the polls between now and Election Day, Romney’s chances will come down to the low but existent risk that the polls are and have been completely wrong. As Senators Harry Reid and Michael Bennet can attest, the polls have been wrong before and could be wrong again. But the Romney campaign’s revival of August’s welfare attack and their recent Jeep outsourcing antics suggest that Boston’s numbers don’t show something too different, while Chicago has unwaveringly maintained that they hold a modest and clear lead in Ohio. With Obama near 49 percent and just six days to go before the polls close, Romney’s window for a comeback is getting vanishingly narrow.”
Meanwhile, 78% rate the President’s response to Hurricane Sandy as excellent or good, while 8% view it negatively. It’s good press for the President, and in fact it is good governance, but I doubt it moves the polls that much. The polls were already moving in the President’s way before the Hurricane struck, both nationally and in the battleground states.
We once again have a lot of polls today. The only major change is moving North Carolina back to a Tied status, from LEAN ROMNEY.
![Thursday Daily Delawhere [11.1.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8330/8131059333_105ba7198a_z.jpg "Thursday Daily Delawhere [11.1.12]")
![Halloween Open Thread [10.31.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8472/8141698505_3309ed3f31_z.jpg "Halloween Open Thread [10.31.12]")
The Polling Report [Halloween Edition]
![The Polling Report [Halloween Edition]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8049/8141426948_188b29c532_z.jpg "The Polling Report [Halloween Edition]")
This Halloween Polling Report is scary for Republicans. Normally when a challenger defeats an incumbent, he is leading by wide margins right now. Remember 1992? Clinton was leading in all the polls, both national and state, by margins enough to ensure he would win 270. That is not the case for Mr. Romney right now. He is woefully behind the ball in the battleground states. In the end, he may win Florida and North Carolina, but the rest of the toss ups have Obama leading, as you see on our map.
Indeed, the point of our map, and why it is different from all other polling maps, is to show you who would win the election if the election where today. For that is all a poll can ask you. So that is all we are showing. And right now, we are showing an clear Obama victory. If Romney were to win, this map should be showing a clear Romney victory right now. It’s not.
So we have a lot of new polls out. The biggest surprise to me? Georgia is not lockdown safe for Romney. Georgia.
![Halloween Daily Delawhere [10.31.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8194/8131059427_3f7e5140a9_z.jpg "Halloween Daily Delawhere [10.31.12]")
The Ocean Meets Rt. 1
Looks to me like the new shoreline is on the shoulder of Northbound Route 1. I imagine that Rt. 1 in this area is going to be closed for quite some time, as Rt. 1 would flood at every high tide.
Tuesday Open Thread [10.30.12]
First Read: “Now with Sandy moving away from the East Coast, the real impact begins today — assessing the damage, realizing what happened, and the government (federal, state, and local) beginning the recovery. And this is the true high-wire act for President Obama and his administration: making sure the recovery and relief begins immediately and […]
Christie offers praise for Obama, and I offer praise for Christie
I said yesterday in one of the Hurricane threads that, while I detest the politics of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) otherwise, I find his response and handling of disasters to be spot on. His assholish schtick is exactly what is needed during these disaster, for there are always idiots who stay behind, ignore warnings, and then get in trouble requiring rescue, risking even more lives. These assholes who never listen to authorities need to be treated, publicly, like assholes, and Chris Christie does that, early and often. And I like it.
Since his state has been ground zero for the landfall of Hurricane Superstorm Sandy, Governor Christie has been all over the national media last night and today. He just spoke to Matt Lauer this morning, and whe Lauer asked about the competence and efficiency of the federal response, Christie said it’s been “great,” noting that he spoke directly to President Obama at midnight and FEMA again this morning. Christie said Obama “has been outstanding.” On CBS, Christie said “cooperation from the president of the United States has been outstanding. He deserves great credit.”
The Polling Report [10.30.12]
![The Polling Report [10.30.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8054/8138151896_e82267c40b_z.jpg "The Polling Report [10.30.12]")
Nate Silver notes the hurricane hitting the east coast means we’ll likely see “a reduction in the number of polls issued over the coming days… And certainly, any polls in the states that are most in harm’s way, including Virginia, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, will need to be interpreted with extreme caution.”
I still think we will see polls from Florida, Ohio and Colorado.
Here is the current map. There is a poll out of Colorado and Florida slowing very slim 1 point Romney leads, 1 poll out of North Carolina showing the race tied, and new polls out of Ohio and New Hampshire showing consistent 3-4 point Obama leads. We also have a Senate Forecast Update today, showing the Democrats picking up a net of 1 seat, with the possibility of picking up a net of 2, to increase their number of seats to 55.
The Morning After (Updated with Pictures)
What damage do you have? Did you lose power? Listen to 1380 am, which is DELDOT’s radio broadcast. They list current road closings and detours for all three counties, including signal outages at intersections. It seems that the Governor will announce at 8:30 if the Level 2 Driving Restriction will be lifted. To echo Lt. Governor Denn and Governor Markell, if you or someone you know are running into any storm-related recovery roadblocks or have unanswered questions, post it here and we will get the message to them.
Recent Comments