Author Archives: Unstable Isotope

About Unstable Isotope

Opinionated chemist, troublemaker, blogger on national and Delaware politics.

Weekend Open Thread

Welcome to your weekend open thread. So far it looks like it’s going to be a great weekend. I hope you’re enjoying the weather.

TPM brings us a really bizarre story out of Missouri. A GOP candidate for the state Senate is being accused of threatening the campaign manager of his primary opponent in a disturbing way:

Bell alleges that, on his way home to Jefferson City on August 4th, he happened by Nieves’ campaign office and noticed the car of Nieves’ campaign treasurer, Dave Bailey, parked outside. Not seeing Nieves car, Bell told police he decided to stop to congratulate Bailey. But no sooner did he offer his congratulations to Bailey than he was surprised by Nieves. Bell says that Nieves called him a “little fuck” threw him across the room as Bailey closed the blinds. When Bell reminded him that they both were Republicans, he got an unexpected response.

then pulled out a black gun out [sic] of his pocket and made sure that I saw it and set it on a table. He told me he was going to kill me. I began to curl up into a ball and break down in fear and was yelling for help. He asked if I was wearing a wire and I told him NO; that I didn’t come to bring harm. He felt my chest, stomach and back to feel for a wire. He was still yelling at me and saying how back he was going to fuck me up. He head butted me on my forehead and It hurt but it wasn’t full power. I have had a headache ever since. He also slapped me across the face several times (at least twice, maybe more) but also not to his full potential He then drug [sic] me into the next room that appeared to be a kitchen area with a fridge, tile floor, and a sink. He still insinuated that I had a wire and made me take off my shirt.

After that, Bell says Nieves mocked his weight and then forced him first to get on his knees to beg forgiveness and then to lie on the floor.

As I was laying down looking up at him, he began to talk about when he was in the Navy. He asked me if I had ever had the absolute shit kicked out of me and I told him no. He asked if I had ever been in a fight and I told him once when in college. He said that he grew up in the projects and that “niggers” used to jump him and kick and beat the shit out of him relentless. He said everyone needs a theaurapeutic [sic] ass kicking in their life and that he was about to give me one.

Bell said that Nieves told him Bailey wouldn’t back him up in court, told him he was sick of looking at his chest and allowed him to get dressed. Nieves then reportedly told Bell to come into his office, where he demanded to know whether Bell had been the opposition researcher behind some of the allegations during the campaign. Bell told police he denied it, but that Nieves then went through the text messages in his phone and began writing some of them down, and then accused Bell of “flipping off [Nieves’] family while they were in the car on Sunday.”
When Bell denied it, Nieves accused him of calling Nieves’ family liars. Then Nieves reportedly threatened Bell’s boss James Harris, and told Bell that Harris was the adulterer. Finally, Nieves demanded that Bell apologize to Nieves’ wife over the phone. After the phone call finished, Bell said Nieves asked for explanations of who certain people in Bell’s phone were and said, if Bell lied, “he would fuck me up like the little pussy bitch I am.” Nieves reportedly discovered Bell had asked people to “mess with” Nieves’ Faebook page or call into his radio show as part of the campaign.

I don’t even know what to say about this incident except that paranoid crazy people act crazy.

In California, the Prop 8 case keeps moving. Opponents of same sex marriage asked the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals to stay the ruling while appeals occur (remember Judge Walker says they might lack standing to appeal) but the state of California is asking that the stay be lifted permanently.

State Attorney General Jerry Brown filed documents late Friday urging a federal appellate court to allow same-sex marriages to go forward in California on Wednesday, saying there is “overwhelming evidence” that a voter-approved ban on such marriages is unconstitutional.

Brown’s filing comes as same-sex marriage opponents have asked the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to halt implementation of a landmark ruling from Chief U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker until a full appeal is heard.

If you want to read the actual filings by the state of California and the city of San Francisco, you can read them at the Prop 8 Trial Tracker. I guess we’ll have to wait until Wednesday to find out if the 9th Circuit will continue to stay the ruling. If the 9th Circuit denies, the Prop 8 defenders can still appeal to SCOTUS.

The 25 Worst Americans In History…According To RWNJs

A bunch of wingnut blogs got together to nominate the 25 worst Americans in history. Enjoy the delusion.

Well, that’s enough about the rules — without further ado, the worst figures in American history are as follows (with the number of votes following each selection)…

23) Saul Alinsky (7)
23) Bill Clinton (7)
23) Hillary Clinton (7)
19) Michael Moore (7)
19) George Soros (8)
19) Alger Hiss (8)
19) Al Sharpton (8)
13) Al Gore (9)
13) Noam Chomsky (9)
13) Richard Nixon (9)
13) Jane Fonda (9)
13) Harry Reid (9)
13) Nancy Pelosi (9)
11) John Wilkes Booth (10)
11) Margaret Sanger (10)
9) Aldrich Ames (11)
9) Timothy McVeigh (11)
7) Ted Kennedy (14)
7) Lyndon Johnson (14)
5) Benedict Arnold (17)
5) Woodrow Wilson (17)
4) The Rosenbergs (19)
3) Franklin Delano Roosevelt (21)
2) Barack Obama (23)
1) Jimmy Carter (25)

According to wingnuts, there are 8 people worse than Tim McVeigh! Where’s Al Capone or Ted Bundy? Obviously they’re not as evil as Bill or Hillary Clinton.

h/t Balloon Juice

Friday Open Thread

Welcome to your Friday open thread. Today is a special Friday, it’s Friday the 13th! I hope only good luck finds you today.

I like this guy, Jared Bernstein, Chief Economic Advisor to the Vice President.

John Boehner wants a lot of people to lose their jobs.

We were awfully surprised to hear Rep. Boehner come out for killing jobs en masse in his own state and district by stopping the Recovery Act on last Sunday’s news shows.

Though we’re sure he didn’t know it, the Congressman is advocating to kill the expansion of the Butler County Community Health Center and bring some of the twenty-five highway projects across the district to a grinding halt. Across the state of Ohio, he said that approximately 4 million working families should get an unexpected cut in their paycheck as the Making Work Pay tax credit disappears, unemployed workers should go without unemployment benefits, and major Ohio road projects like the US-33 Nelsonville Bypass project and the Cleveland Innerbelt Modernization project should be stalled or stopped. Oh, and some of the more than 100 clean energy Recovery projects employing workers across the state should be shut down.

That would be the direct consequence of his suggestion that we shut down the Recovery Act: “There’s still about $400 billion or $500 billion of the stimulus plan that has not been spent. Why don’t we stop it?” Now if you have been following this blog, you know that the notion there is “$400 billion or $500 billion” in Recovery Act funding unspent couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, we’re right on track to hit the goal set when the Recovery Act passed: that 70% of the $787 billion in funds would be “outlaid” or provided in tax benefits by September 30, 2010. But you don’t have to take our word for it – independent fact-checker Politifact.com recently rated Rep. Boehner’s claim flat-out false. As they noted:

[R]ight off the bat, Boehner’s $400 billion to $500 billion figure is much too high.

But then they go on to say:

[W]e think it’s misleading to refer to even that lower number as “unspent” stimulus, because much of the $292 billion has been obligated, even though it has not been paid out.

One’s of the right’s big talking points is that there are unspent stimulus funds. Those are actually funds put aside for the middle-class tax cuts. Ezra Klein notes that since the recession began in 2007, we’ve lost 8M jobs. Only 41,000 jobs have been lost since the stimulus went into effect.

Remember how George W. Bush is the worst president ever? Today’s Republicans make him look good in comparison. Former Bush aide Michael Gerson criticizes the push by today’s Republicans to repeal the 14th amendment.

Today’s dispute over birthright citizenship reveals the immigration debate in its starkest form. Usually, opponents of illegal immigration speak of giving lawbreakers what they deserve. But this does not apply in the case of an infant. Consider two newborn babies at, say, Parkland Hospital in Dallas. One is the child of citizens, the other of illegal immigrants. Critics of birthright citizenship look at the child of immigrants and feel . . . disturbed? Outraged? But why? Do they see a child somehow tainted by illegality? That hardly seems fair. A burden on resources? No more than any other poor child. An alien lacking allegiance? How could they possibly know? Why not a soldier, or an entrepreneur, or, as the Constitution specifically permits, a president?

For nearly a century and a half, Americans have taken the view that these two children at Parkland start their lives as equals. They acquire their rights not because of their parentage or their bloodline or the permission of politicians but because they are born in the United States.

The radical, humane vision of the 14th Amendment can be put another way: No child born in America can be judged unworthy by John Boehner, because each is his equal.

It’s scary to think it could have been worse. Bush was a moderating influence over Cheney? Oy.

Dr. Laura Gives Advice

Dr. Laura Schlessinger is not someone I pay much attention to. I know she made some news years back with some anti-gay comments. All I know about her is that she gives right wing advice to people which usually involves women just shutting up and putting out. Honestly, I haven’t paid that much attention to her. Well, she’s caught everyone’s notice now.

Here’s audio of Schlessenger’s original rant, which happened during a discussion with a black female caller who thought her white husband’s friends were racist (the most shocking moment of which included Schlessenger saying angrily, “Black guys use it all the time. Turn on HBO and listen to a black comic, and all you hear is nigger, nigger, nigger. I don’t get it. If anybody without enough melanin says it, it’s a horrible thing. But when black people say it, it’s affectionate.”

Right, Dr. Laura. Because some comedians use the word on HBO for shock value that means it’s o.k. to use. Of course, Dr. Laura’s advice is that the woman is just supposed to suck it up and take it. The worse part of the rant comes here in Part 2, where she really goes to town.

Dr. Laura obviously isn’t familiar with the first rule of digging holes.

After a break, the caller said she was appalled by Schlessinger’s use of the word.

“Oh, then I guess you don’t watch HBO or listen to any black comedians,” she said. “My dear, the point I am trying to make…we’ve got a black man as president and we’ve got more complaining about racism than ever. I think that’s hilarious.”

Schlessinger and the caller then got into an exchange about the use of the word:

CALLER: Is it OK to say that word? Is it ever OK to say that word?
DR. LAURA: It depends how it’s said. Black guys talking to each other seem to think it’s ok.
CALLER: But you’re not black, they’re not black, my husband is white.
DR. LAURA: Oh, I see, so a word is restricted to race. Got it. Can’t do much about that.
CALLER: I can’t believe someone like you is on the radio spewing out the n***** word, and I hope everybody heard it.
DR. LAURA: I didn’t spew out the n***** word!
CALLER: You said “n*****, n*****, n*****” and I hope everybody heard it.
DR. LAURA: Yes they did, and I’ll say it again: n*****, n*****, n***** is what you hear on HBO.
[Crosstalk]
DR. LAURA: Why don’t you let me finish a sentence? Don’t take things out of context. Don’t NAACP me, leave them in context.

“If you’re that hypersensitive about color and don’t have a sense of humor, don’t marry outside of your race,” Schlessinger said after hanging up with the caller.

Did you hear that? Stop being so sensitive! Obviously it’s your problem if your husband won’t stand up for you.

You gotta love that other people do it defense! Plus, she totally went Michael Richards on that caller. But I guess Dr. Laura had a change of heart because she is sorry she got caught you’re offended.

She apologized the next day, opening her show with an apology.

“Yesterday, I did the wrong thing,” she said. “I didn’t intend to hurt people, but I did. And that makes it the wrong thing to have done. I was attempting to make a philosophical point, and I articulated the “n” word all the way out – more than one time. And that was wrong. I’ll say it again – that was wrong.”

Schlessinger said she “was so upset [she] could not finish the show.”

“I pulled myself off the air at the end of the hour,” she said. “I had to finish the hour, because 20 minutes of dead air doesn’t work. I am very sorry. And it just won’t happen again.”

See, it was terrible. Dr. Laura was so upset she almost couldn’t blabber on for 20 whole minutes. You can rest assured that she won’t almost be so upset to talk ever again.

Thursday Open Thread

Welcome to the Thursday edition of your open thread. The floor is yours…try not to leave a mess.

Former Vice President Dan Quayle’s son Ben is running for Congress in Arizona. He’s looked like a sure thing until lately. First he got caught using other people’s children in his campaign literature (the children were his nieces). Now’s he’s been outed as a former writer for a gossip rag called Dirty Scottsdale.

But Quayle, 33, has had to confront a much bigger credibility issue this week after a blogger revealed that he had once been a contributing writer for Dirty Scottsdale, a raunchy, sex-themed website that covered the club scene in his adopted home town before morphing into the national gossip site TheDirty.com.

At first, Quayle denied the claim, telling POLITICO Tuesday that he “was not involved in the site.” But hours later, after blogs, news websites and other media picked up the story, Quayle told several Phoenix TV stations that he had posted on the site “to try to drive some traffic.”

He continued to maintain, however, that he did not post under the pseudonym “Brock Landers,” a reference to the name of a porn star in the 1997 flick “Boogie Nights.”

Most of us don’t care if he wrote naughty pieces in Scottsdale. However he’s running on “family values” and is just another GOP family values hypocrite.

Today we’re waiting to hear whether Judge Walker will lift the stay on his Prop 8 ruling, allowing same sex marriages to begin again in California. Already the ruling has had huge consequences. A new CNN poll found a majority of Americans support the right of same sex couples to marry. Now the American Bar Association has issued a resolution supporting same sex marriage.

Gays and lesbians should have the right to marry in civil ceremonies, the ABA’s policy-making House of Delegates declared on Tuesday. The measure passed on a voice vote.

A lineup of ABA leaders, both past and present, spoke in favor of the resolution. Incoming ABA President Stephen Zack asked “Why would anyone in this country not want two people who love each other to enjoy the blessings of marriage and the protections of law?”

Former ABA President Tommy Wells told the House that “our citizens of the same sex who are being denied the right to a civil marriage are only seeking to participate in an equal basis in a foundational institution of our civil life. They simply want to share in the legal blessings that we give to married couples. It can only strengthen marriage.”

Resolution 111 (PDF) had been gaining momentum in the House since a U.S. district court judge ruled last week in Perry v. Schwarzenegger that California’s Proposition 8 ban on same-sex marriage violated the U.S. Constitution. On Saturday, Laurence Tribe, the U.S. Justice Department’s senior counselor for access to justice, speculated during a program at the annual meeting that there is a good chance the U.S. Supreme Court would uphold the district court ruling, with Justice Anthony M. Kennedy likely providing the swing vote.

Good for the ABA. The Prop 8 ruling is turning out to be quite a watershed and the opponents of same sex marriage are being left behind.

Mike Castle Supports….Filibuster Reform?

Mike Castle is clearly not worried about Christine O’Donnell’s challenge. He’s been positioning himself to the left lately (perhaps worried about his numbers at <50%). Just this week he voted yes on the new $26B state aid bill which allowed teachers, firefighters, police and other state workers to keep their jobs. Bold guerilla blogger Mike Stark caught up with Mike Castle on Tuesday and asked Castle whether he would support filibuster reform.

Castle is the Republican Senate candidate from Delaware. I asked him if he’d consider joining with other Senators to change the Senate filibuster rules. He said, “I might,” and continued to say that this would be something he may speak about before the election.

I’m quite surprised by this. Filibuster reform is not on many people’s radar right now but clearly Castle is going to position himself as someone who will get things done and perhaps as a power broker (like Scott Brown or Olympia Snowe).

Wednesday Open Thread

Welcome to your Wednesday open thread. Today is a special day because it’s my birthday. Happy birthday to me! I’m celebrating by working like a normal workday.

If you enjoy food & cooking, you might enjoy my husband’s new food blog: ZOMG Food Pr0n! Check it out.

Republicans are taking a bit of a beating for wanting to meddle with the Constitution. This time it’s Fox News analysts Andrew Napolitano taking Republicans to the proverbial woodshed:

Today, Fox News analyst Judge Andrew Napolitano slammed Republicans trying to change the 14th amendment to end birthright citizenship. When asked about the effort to change the amendment, Napolitano derided it as “nothing but political chatter.” He then went on to castigate the Republicans who are advocating for ending birthright citizenship, saying, “These people took an oath to uphold the Constitution whether they agree with it or not! All of it not part of it!”:

NAPOLITANO: The law has been upheld uniformly since 1868 and without exception. And we start with a couple of basics. The Congress cannot change the constitution of the 14th amendment on its own. It takes 2/3 of each house of Congress and 3/4 of the states to change the amendment. […] so this is nothing but political chatter by those who are concerned understandably by problems at the border. […] I can’t imagine that there’d be a consensus to change the 14th amendment. […]

HEMMER: But if the [Birthright Citizenship Act] were carried out, you had 100 co-sponsors about a year ago, it would require at least one parent to be a US citizen for a baby to become an american citizen at birth. If you were to enact the BCA as some refer to it, is that a way to get around the 14th amendment, and get done what people like John Cornyn, and John Kyl and John Mccain, and we heard John Boehner are trying to do.

NAPOLITANO: No! That would not be a a way around it. There is no way to get around the 14th amendment. These people took an oath to uphold the Constitution whether they agree with it or not! All of it not part of it! The Supreme Court has said you cannot take privileges or benefits away from a child because of a crime committed by the parent. Therefore everybody born here is an American citizen, no matter what their parents’ status was at their birth.

Napolitano makes very good points here. Amending the Constitution is extremely difficult and extremely unlikely. It’s all about wedge issues and Republicans know they’ll never have to act on it. Isn’t it interesting though that Republican amendments to the Constitution are all about limiting people’s rights? Like banning flag burning, limiting marriage and now limiting birthright citizenship.

I hope Democrats are listening to digby.

I do hope the Democrats are paying close attention to this because it might just save their bacon if they play their cards right. Here’s the lugubrious GOP star Mike Pence on the passage of the emergency state teacher, cop and firefighter funding:

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) picked up on that theme today on ABC’s Top Line, calling it a “massive state bailout.” When host Z. Byron Wolf asked what the GOP plan would be to help teachers who are about to lose their jobs — particularly the 3,600 in Indiana, Pence didn’t have much to offer:

PENCE: Well, look I’m married to a school teacher. My wife spent more than a decade in a public school classroom. So I love teachers! Teachers, firefighters, policemen are all Americans and they all know that the economic policies of bailouts and handouts have failed to create jobs.

can you spot the fear and dissonance there? I knew that you could.

I’m telling you, this is where the vulnerable underbelly of their “just say no” campaign. They are voting against nice, white, suburban middle class Americans this time (along with nice brown and black suburban middle class Americans) with this crusade. And going after teachers, cops and firefighters is a very, very dangerous thing to do. And as I wrote before, the Democrats should throw it right in their face.

Republicans are against jobs for “special interests” like teachers, police and firemen. They’re pretty incoherent about this too – they throw a hissy fit if it’s not “paid for” (although tax cuts are free) and even when it’s paid for they still vote against. It’s almost like they want the economy to be bad or something.

PPP Delaware Poll: Republicans

One of the disappointing things about the newly-released PPP Poll was that the Republican primaries were not polled. There’s plenty of raw numbers to look at though. Can we get any hints of how the primaries might go from the raw data? Let’s take a look.

PPP has broken down the approval numbers several ways. One way was by who the voter chose for president in the 2008 election. How do the Republican candidates stack up?

McCain voters Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable (Favorable-Unfavorable)
Mike Castle – 54/31/16/+12
Christine O’Donnell – 32/29/39/+3
Michele Rollins – 22/22/56/0
Glenn Urquhart – 23/18/59/+5

This crude analysis shows that Castle beats O’Donnell handily. O’Donnell’s name recognition is still low so she definitely has room to move up however her favorables are low. The Rollins/Urquhart is a toss-up with a slight lean towards Urquhart. Both Rollins and Urquhart are both largely unknown so this race is quite fluid.

PPP also broke down the numbers by self-reported ideology. Republicans in Delaware would probably label themselves as either “moderate” or “conservative” (I realize that there’s a lot of overlap of moderates with both Independents and Democrats).

Conservatives Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable
Mike Castle – 46/39/15/+7
Christine O’Donnell – 37/23/40/+14
Michele Rollins – 21/19/59/+2
Glenn Urquhart – 25/14/61/+9

O’Donnell has her best showing among conservatives but still trails Castle. Despite rumors to the contrary, Castle is popular among conservatives. Urquhart has a clear advantage with conservatives over Rollins.

What about moderates?
Moderates Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable
Mike Castle – 56/25/18/+31
Christine O’Donnell – 15/38/47/-23
Michele Rollins – 16/27/57/-9
Glenn Urquhart – 12/21/67/-9

Castle is beloved by self-reported moderates. All other Republican candidates are in negative territory, which shows why Republicans have trouble winning in Delaware. Despite having the News Journal declare her a moderate, Rollins is clearly not catching on. She has the same rating with mderates as Glenn Urquhart. I assume Urquhart’s negatives will go up with moderates once they watch Urquhart’s Nazi comments.

One last analysis – how do the Republican candidates rate among Republicans?

Republicans Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure/Net Favorable
Mike Castle – 60/25/16/+35
Christine O’Donnell – 34/29/37/+5
Michele Rollins – 27/17/57/+10
Glenn Urquhart – 23/17/59/+6

Castle is popular with Republicans no matter which way you look at the numbers. O’Donnell has an uphill climb. Rollins finally comes out ahead of Urquhart in this match-up so I call their race a toss-up as of now.

What advice do you give each of these candidates? My advice:
Castle – Ignore O’Donnell, keep doing what you’re doing
O’Donnell – Go relentlessly negative to drive down Castle’s numbers. Be sure to get your base support of conservatives out to vote. If you have money, now would be a good time to spend it.
Rollins – Quit sitting on your load of cash and start spending some, otherwise you could lose to Urquhart. Since Urquhart is probably the conservatives’ candidate you have nothing to lose by moving to the left and appealing to moderates. Try to link yourself to Castle more aggressively.
Urquhart – Spend money to raise your name recognition & profile & make sure conservatives come to vote in the primaries

Tuesday Open Thread

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of your semi-daily open thread. I hope you’re having a fabulously wonderful Tuesday.

Today is primary day in several states: Minnesota, Connecticut and Colorado as well as a run-off election for the GOP nomination for Georgia governor.

In Minnesota, the governor’s race is interesting. Tom Emmer, who thought that waiters should take a pay cut, is the likely Republican nominee. On the Democratic side, former Senator Mark Dayton is the likely nominee but he’s taking on two challengers, Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Matt Entenza.

Connecticut has gubernatorial primaries for governor and U.S. Senate. In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, almost-Senator Ned Lamont takes on Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy. The last poll had this as a toss-up with Lamont with a small lead (45-42). On the Republican side there’s a 3-way race between Tom Foley, Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele and Oz Griebel. Foley is leading 38-30-17 with a lot of undecideds. On the Senate side AG Richard Blumenthal has no challenger on the Democratic side and the on-again, off-again candidacy of Rob Simmons may be off-again for good. Linda McMahon is expected to win this primary.

Colorado has the most intriguing match-ups. Appointed incumbent Senator Michael Bennet is being challenged by Andrew Romanoff. Romanoff has come on strong in the last few weeks, he was endorsed by Bill Clinton and a funding scandal has hurt Bennet – Bennet approved a deal while Superintendent of Denver public schools which has turned out to be a very bad deal. The last poll gave Bennet a small lead 49-43 but Colorado has mail-in ballots so the scandal may have been too late to help Romanoff. On the Republican side, Ken Buck (birthers are dumbasses) and former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (establishment pick) are tied. On the Senate side, crazy Dan Maes (bicycles lead to abortion) and wounded Scott McInnis are also tied. Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper is unopposed for the Democratic governor nomination.

For the Georgia run-off Palin-endorsed “mama grizzly” Karen Handel takes on Gingrich-endorsed Congressman Nathan Deal. Three different polls have either a small Handel lead, a small Deal lead or a tie. This one is a toss-up.

So lots of suspense tonight watching the primary results come in.

Delaware PPP Poll Results

PPP has just released their poll results for Delaware. There are a lot of results, so I’m sure this will lead to a lot of blog posts. Here’s the headline numbers:

DE-Sen

Public Policy Polling (PDF) for Daily Kos. 8/7-8. Registered voters. MoE 4% (No trendlines)

If the candidates for US Senate this fall were Republican Mike Castle and Democrat Chris Coons, who would you vote for?

All Dem GOP Ind
Chris Coons (D) 35 55 12 23
Mike Castle (R) 48 30 75 50
Undecided 17 15 13 27

Chris Coons (D) 44 67 17 29
Christine O’Donnell (R) 37 16 67 40
Undecided 19 16 15 31

Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure

Coons 31/31/39
Dem 42/25
GOP 19/40
Ind 23/30

Castle 51/32/18
Dem 47/35
GOP 60/25
Ind 49/32

O’Donnell’s Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure %s: 23/34/44

The latest numbers are very similar to the Rasmussen numbers from the last two weeks. Castle has a solid lead, but remains under 50%. Coons is still largely unknown and has more room to grow.

DE-AL

Carney leads Rollins 48-31 and leads Urquhart 48-30. Carney leads either Rollins of Urquhart in every county.

Carney’s Favorable/unfavorable/Not Sure: 31/24/45
Rollins F/U/NS: 18/25/57
Urquhart F/U/NS: 15/20/65

None of the candidates have extremely high name recognition. Carney’s is the best, but it’s still below that of Chris Coons despite his stint as Lt. Governor.

Other favorable/unfavorable/not sure from the survey:
President Obama: 50/44/6
Senator Carper: 47/33/20
Senator Kaufman: 37/30/33
Governor Markell: 50/32/18

So the winner of the popularity contest is *drumroll* Mike Castle with +19% approval! Close behind is Governor Markell with +18, followed by Tom Carper with +14, Senator Kaufman with +7 and President Obama with +6.

Rand Paul’s Drug-Fueled Crime Spree

Rand Paul comes across as a boring candidate. Crazy, but boring. At the Fancy Farm Picnic Rand Paul apparently gave a snoozer of a speech about the U.S. tax code (hint: it’s long!). Rand Paul manages to be boring, wrong and crazy all at the same time. Apparently Rand Paul has another side: stoner kidnapper. This story comes from a GQ profile of Rand Paul:

But when Paul showed up in Waco, he didn’t conform to type. According to several of his former Baylor classmates, he became a member of a secret society called the NoZe Brotherhood, which was a refuge for atypical Baylor students. “You could have taken 90 percent of the liberal thinkers at Baylor and found them in this small group,” recalls Marc Burckhardt, one of Paul’s former NoZe Brothers. Sort of a cross between Yale’s Skull & Bones and Harvard’s Lampoon, the NoZe existed to torment the Baylor administration, which it accomplished through pranks and its satirical newspaper The Rope. The group especially enjoyed tweaking the school’s religiosity. “We aspired to blasphemy,” says John Green, another of Paul’s former NoZe Brothers.

A secret society full of liberal thinkers? The penalty for belonging to this organization was expulsion if you were caught.

The strangest episode of Paul’s time at Baylor occurred one afternoon in 1983 (although memories about all of these events are understandably a bit hazy, so the date might be slightly off), when he and a NoZe brother paid a visit to a female student who was one of Paul’s teammates on the Baylor swim team. According to this woman, who requested anonymity because of her current job as a clinical psychologist, “He and Randy came to my house, they knocked on my door, and then they blindfolded me, tied me up, and put me in their car. They took me to their apartment and tried to force me to take bong hits. They’d been smoking pot.” After the woman refused to smoke with them, Paul and his friend put her back in their car and drove to the countryside outside of Waco, where they stopped near a creek. “They told me their god was ‘Aqua Buddha’ and that I needed to bow down and worship him,” the woman recalls. “They blindfolded me and made me bow down to ‘Aqua Buddha’ in the creek. I had to say, ‘I worship you Aqua Buddha, I worship you.’ At Baylor, there were people actively going around trying to save you and we had to go to chapel, so worshiping idols was a big no-no.”

Nearly 30 years later, the woman is still trying to make sense of that afternoon. “They never hurt me, they never did anything wrong, but the whole thing was kind of sadistic. They were messing with my mind. It was some kind of joke.” She hadn’t actually realized that Paul wound up leaving Baylor early. “I just know I never saw Randy after that—for understandable reasons, I think.”

Some of the details of this story are amusing but overall I don’t think kidnapping and tormenting a fellow student falls under the category of “prank.” Rand Paul’s campaign has issued several non-denials and is now considering legal options.

In a previous statement about the story sent to TPM, Benton dismissed the GQ piece, saying “National Enquirer-type stories about Dr. Paul’s teenage years should be left to the tabloids where they belong.”

It should be noted that Paul’s campaign has not said the substance of the story is wrong.

Monday Open Thread

Welcome to your Monday open thread. It’s Monday, so it’s back to the grind. What’s on your mind?

Surveys have found (surprise, surprise) that racial resentment is highest among people who identify themselves with the Tea Party movement:

National surveys of the Tea Party have found that explicit racist sentiment is a strong component of the tea-party make up, in addition to economic conservatism and strong Republican partisanship. The April, 2010 New York Times/CBS News national survey of Tea Party supporters found that they are:

– More than twice as likely as the general public (25% vs 11%) to believe that “the policies of the Obama administration favor blacks over whites.”

– Half as likely as the general public (16% to 31%) to believe that “white people have a better chance of getting ahead in today’s society.”

– Almost twice as likely as the general public (52% to 28%) to believe that “too much has been made of the problems facing black people” in recent years.

In a broad study of adults in Georgia, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and California conducted between February and March, the University of Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity, Race, and Sexuality (WISER) asked a number of questions about “racial resentment” — such as whether blacks don’t try hard enough or have gotten more than they deserve. Conservatives are 23 percent more likely to be racially resentful, and Republicans 15 percent more likely than Democrats. However, the institute found that this racial sentiment isn’t simply a byproduct of white conservativism:

[E]ven as we account for conservatism and partisanship, support for the Tea Party remains a valid predictor of racial resentment.

It is untrue, as political commentator Dave Weigel argues, that racism in the Tea Party is merely reflective of its conservatism. The WISER study found that compared to other conservatives, Tea Party supporters are:

– 25 percent more likely to have racial resentment.

– 27 percent more likely to support racial profiling.

– 28 percent more likely to support indefinite detention without charges.

The new campaigns against building mosques is part of this same isolationist, xenophobic rhetoric. Xenophobia may be big topic right now but apparently the California Prop 8 decision is getting barely a wimper from the usual suspects on the right.

When a federal judge in California last week ruled the state’s ban on gay marriage unconstitutional, several political observers braced for a flood of Republican blasts on the issue that could end up resonating in campaigns nationally.

Instead, the anticipated GOP bang over the ban — known as Proposition 8 — amounted to little more than a whimper. There were angry columns and cries of protest from right-wing groups and conservative writers, but the majority of the Republican establishment kept on a bread-and-butter message — and party leaders are encouraging them not to stray.

In California, the two leading GOP candidates — gubernatorial hopeful Meg Whitman and U.S. Senate nominee Carly Fiorina — issued muted statements.

On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” the day after the ruling, Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.), who opposes gay marriage, said he thought it may come up in a “subliminal” way in campaigns and moved off the topic fairly quickly.

The national committees didn’t touch it in a real way — “I haven’t been following closely,” said one Washington GOP operative who works with one of the committees. Meanwhile Republican leaders made clear their strategy is staying on jobs.

Will we get a civil war between the social conservatives and the Tea Partiers. The social conservatives are being pretty much ignored right now.

Prop 8: Ted Olson Destroys Chris Wallace

One of the interesting things about the Prop 8 trial was that the defenders of Prop 8 were so ill-prepared for their court case. The Prop 8 defenders only called 2 witnesses and one of the witnesses had their testimony completely ignored. The opponents of Prop 8 called many, many witnesses to demolish the “scientific” opposition to same sex marriage – like the myths that same sex couples are bad for children. The trial was a farce from the start because the arguments that the Prop 8 defenders had were 1) will of the people, 2) tradition and 3) religion. However, to win a case you need good lawyers and Ted Olson shows why he’s one of the best:

Wallace asked Olson to identify the right to same-sex marriage in the constitution and wondered why “seven million Californians” “don’t get to say that marriage is between a man and a woman.” Olson replied that the Supreme Court has ruled that marriage was a fundamental right and pointed out that the constitution made no explicit mention of interracial marriage either. He stressed that under our system of government, voters can’t deprive minority groups of their constitutionally guaranteed protections and reminded Wallace that in the 1960s, “Californians voted to change their constitution to say that you could discriminate on the basis of race in the sale of your home; the United States Supreme Court struck that down.”

When Wallace pressed the point further, likening same-sex marriage to abortion and noting that “the political process in the case of same-sex marriage was working” since states had been deciding the issue on a “state-by-state basis,” Olson asked Wallace how he would like it if Fox News’ right to free speech was decided in such a manner:

OLSON: Well, would you like your right to free speech? Would you like Fox’s right to free press put up to a vote and say well, if five states approved it, let’s wait till the other 45 states do? These are fundament constitutional rights. The Bill of Rights guarantees Fox News and you, Chris Wallace, the right to speak. It’s in the constitution. And the Supreme Court has repeatedly held that the denial of our citizens of the equal rights to equal access to justice under the law, is a violation of our fundamental rights. Yes, it’s encouraging that many states are moving towards equality on the basis of sexual orientation, and I’m very, very pleased about that. … We can’t wait for the voters to decide that that immeasurable harm, that is unconstitutional, must be eliminated.

Here’s some interesting speculation from Pam’s House Blend, is the Prop 8 case actually over? Both the California AG Jerry Brown and California Governor Arnold Schwartzenegger have asked Judge Walker to lift the stay on the ruling and allow same sex marriages to proceed:

In a motion filed late yesterday, lawyers for the plaintiff couples and the City of San Francisco argued that marriages should be allowed to begin immediately, rather than be stayed pending appeal. One of their arguments was that an appeal might never happen. They argued this because the governmental defendants – the Governator and the once (and future!) Governor Moonbeam – are not appealing and the Yes on 8 proponents – who were let in at the trial court as intervenors – don’t have standing to appeal.

In a nutshell, from a non-lawyer, it seems that Justice Ginsburg, in the opinion to Arizonans for Official English v. Arizona (which was decided on other grounds), expressed “grave doubts” as to whether the proponents of a ballot measure had standing to appeal a federal court ruling in the absence of governmental actors making an appeal. In other words, the Yes on 8 folks might not have the right to appeal Walker’s decision.

This, apparently, is why Imperial County tried to get in on the case in the eleventh hour – the haters realized that without a government entity willing to appeal, they could be shit out of luck. But Walker shut them down, both saying they didn’t have a good reason to be let in and that they waited until after the deadline, so they really are SOL. So unless Schwarzenegger or Jerry Brown have a sudden change of heart and decide to appeal the ruling (or Imperial County convinces a higher court that they really should be in on the case) Walker’s ruling could be the final word.