Delaware

Game of Thrones, Episode One: Rules of the Game and the Governor.

The rumblings have started. The game of musical chairs begins as potential candidates start eyeing a particular chair and then nervously eye each other while the music plays.

So in working through this, let’s make some assumptions:

1. Governor Markell will not be a candidate for any of these upcoming races. This is because I assume, no matter who wins the Presidential election, Markell will be in the Cabinet. He is the perfect Democrat a Republican President would chose for Secretary of Education or Secretary of Commerce, and I can see President Hillary Clinton likewise tapping him for Commerce, Education or Treasury.

2. Treasurer Ken Simpler is not running for Governor, but for reelection in 2018.

3. In the same vein, and much to my personal chagrin, Attorney General Matt Denn will not be running for Governor either, but will run for reelection in 2018. For you see, Mr. Denn is the most progressive statewide official and has been since his arrival as Insurance Commissioner back in 2004. But, and this goes for Simpler too, two years on the job is not enough of a platform to run for a new one. Beau Biden recognized this back in 2010, back when he had been on the job of AG for 4 years, but spent 18 months of that in Iraq. And it is a shame too, since that was likely his last chance at higher office. But I digress. For Denn, and I am sure he is aware of this, a run for Governor so soon after a switch of office to AG from LG, coupled with his history of jumping from IC to LG after one term, an uncomfortable reputation might emerge.

4. Insurance Commissioner Stewart and Auditor Wagner will not leave their respective jobs voluntarily until they die. They will not retire. And they cannot be defeated in a primary. For Wagner, having an elected statewide Republican is still a rare enough thing that I am not sure another Republican can be found to challenge him. For Stewart, the only way she can be defeated is if you limit her primary challengers to 1. If she has more than 1 primary challenger, her 32% inexplicable base support in the party will allow her to win. But that will never happen because Tom Gordon and Dennis Williams will step again with their City-County-Stewart unholy tripartite alliance and save him with one or more primary challengers.

5. Beau Biden will not run for any office in 2016. His announcement that he was foregoing a 2014 reelection race and would instead run for Governor in 2016 was a smokescreen, a place-holding statement to preserve his political capital and position in the Party and politics should his health and/or prognosis improve. It was a wise, smart move on that front. But it is not our reality. Beau Biden is not running for Governor, or any office. And I am not going to pretend that he is. If he starts making public appearances, if he starts speaking at these public appearances, and if he releases information as to his health scare, treatment and prognosis, then I will take him seriously as a potential candidate.

6. Tom Carper has a one more election cycle in him before he turns into Bill Roth and someone Carpers him. And I say that wanting Carper to retire to the Florida beach with Castle with every fiber of my being.

So, having said all that, let’s look at who are the candidates for Governor first, because the candidates for this highest office will determine, in a trickle down that actually works, the candidates for the other offices.

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