
Onto the
House. The Dems currently have a 26-15 member advantage over the Republicans. In the House, you need 21 seats for a majority. To win back control of the chamber, the GOP would need to win 6 seats while defending all of theirs. As you can see above, 15 Democrats are either unopposed or face nominal third party opposition, and thus are all virtual locks for reelection. So the Democrats are already 6 seats away from maintaining control of the chamber without even breaking a sweat. 5 Republicans are similarly unopposed or nominally opposed by third parties, so the current standing is 15 Democrats, 5 Republicans.
Then we move to our contested column, and again these are races where both main parties have fielded candidates, but the incumbent or the incumbent party is heavily favored to win, whether the factors be the quality of the challengers or the incumbents and the demographics of the district.