The Polling Report [6.16.12]

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And this concludes a very light week of polling. We have a new Michigan poll that puts the state strongly back in the Obama column, but since it was conducted by Rasmussen, we can't count it in our map, even when it is good for our side. The national polls remain tight, while Obama is up by 23 in New Jersey.

Delaware Political Weekly: June 9-15, 2012

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Up until now, the calculus, at least as I saw it was simple: The more challengers who oppose an incumbent, the more likely the incumbent will win. However, the Democratic Party’s endorsement of Crane, and endorsement that, according to Party Chair John Daniello, “wasn’t close”, changes all that, IMHO. Crane had already built a strong grassroots organization, a lot stronger than Stewart’s. Crane had already raised a lot more money than Stewart. And now, the Party, and especially the district committees who strongly backed Crane, will line up behind his candidacy. The 10-15 people who gather on Harris McDowell’s porch can, in no way, counteract that. I’m speaking as an analyst here, not as a partisan (Crane partisans, of whom I’m admittedly one, no doubt will cringe when I say this), but, barring something unforeseen, I now see Crane as a strong favorite to win this race, and I’m not sure that even the combined ‘forces’ of Stewart, Spivack, and Gallagher can put up a serious threat.

Time for a new DelawareLiberal.Net radio spot?

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For those who may not remember, back in May of 2007, the DelawareLiberal community wrote and raised a few bucks to air this radio spot. (click on the top link) I love the copy on that one. I loved sticking it to Mike Castle, George Bush and I especially the tag line: "At DelawareLiberal we haven't figured out how to make money. But we know how to make change!" Now, I know that there are no Sheldon Adelsons in our midst, so this is a small scale, probably low impact campaign. But I still think that it makes sense to remind the broader community that this is the place to be if you follow local and national politics.

The Alleged Contents of a Letter

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WGMD had a mysterious story this afternoon about an anonymous letter being sent to the DE House of Representatives, and then being passed onto the State Police. The letter allegedly involves allegations of criminal misconduct on the part of an elected official. I have been given an overview of what is in the letter from a source. Apparently, the contents of the letter involve an open secret or a well traveled rumor in Sussex County Republican circles for the last two years, and involve all the star players of the Sussex County Republican Party. Indeed, if the contents of the letter are true, it will devastate the Sussex County Republican Party and ruin the careers of three prominent Sussex County Republicans, and possibly lead to their criminal indictments.

What’s With the Romney Antics ?

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Posting hecklers to disrupt Axlerod's press conference. Driving a bus around and honking a horn outside of Presidential speech? Is it just oddball behavior? Probably not according to Josh Marshall. It all seems part of Romney's plan to appeal to the Gingrich/Santorum fringe of the party that wants a bad ass.

How To Remove A Tea Partier

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Like a good Tea Partier, Wagner voted against every single appropriation of money put forward by the legislature, including a bill that arrived on Governor Brian Schweitzer’s desk last April which contained grant money for local communities (including Wagner’s district), for things like sewer upgrades, fire department repairs, and the like. Schweitzer–who is known to enjoy mixing it up with right-wingers–saw an angle. He noticed that Wagner had voted against the bill. So, Schweitzer used his “line item veto” power and selectively crossed out the funds that would have gone to Wagner’s district. Schweitzer did this to several legislators who voted against the grant billl. Schweitzer said that it was logical to assume that if Wagner and others voted against the bill, then their constituents must not have expressed much interest in getting the money.

General Assembly Post-Game Wrap-Up/Pre-Game Show: Thurs., June 14, 2012

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Hoo boy, we're gonna have us a (figurative, one would hope) Shoot-Out At the Not OK Corral today. The Sheriff of Nuttingham and his Posse Comatosis will finally have to, um, face the law(makers). Thass raht. HB 325(Schwartzkopf) occupies the Top Gun position on today's Senate agenda. It'll pass, and I don't think it'll take Gov. Markell too long to sign it. Leaving only the  question: Will Sussex County's self-proclaimed top lawman honor the law of the land?

General Assembly Post-Game Wrap-Up/Pre-Game Show: Weds., June 13, 2012

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Internet gambling’s almost here. Guess it beats turning people upside down and shaking the coins into the seat cushions. And what would an internet gambling bill without even more sops to the racino industry? Hey, at least it’s a reverse-Robin Hood where the rich at worst don’t get their taxes increased and at best they get more blood money from the degenerates. HB 333(Viola) passed the House yesterday by a vote of 29 Y, 8 N, 4 Not Voting. There are no ideological lessons to be learned from the roll call, as supporters and opponents came from all political stripes. Did I mention even more sops to the racino industry? Yep, more $$’s for thoroughbred and harness purses. Oh, and something to do with waiving racinos’ licensing fees for slot machines.