Delaware Liberal

Here is our update on the race for the General Assembly next year. The Democrats hold majorities in both houses, 25-16 in the House and 12-9 in the Senate. Only half of the Senate seats are up for election next year, for four year terms. All of the House seats are up for two year terms. The Republicans only need to net 2 seats in the Senate to win control, while they will need to win 5 seats in the House to win control. The purpose of this chart inside is to show you which seats are competitive and which are not. The number besides each officeholder's name is the percentage of the vote that that officeholder received in their last election. And based off that number, I rank the seats either Safe, Lean D/R, or Competitive. If the number is shaded in Dark Red or Dark Blue, the district is safe for the incumbent party. If the number is a lighter shade of blue or red, that district leans either Republican or Democratic, meaning the race could get competitive in the right conditions, but it is likely to go to the incumbent party. If the number and the whole district is shaded in yellow, then it is competitive. My judgment on which district is competitive, at this stage, has a lot to do with how the incumbent performed in his or her prior election. I also factor into my consideration the nature of the district. For example, Trey Paradee's and Andria Bennett's districts will be competitive no matter how long they are in office, because of their district's more conservative lean, and based on their percentage of the vote in the last election. I also include RD18 as competitive because it will be David Bentz's first real general election, even though he will likely win a full two year term due to the district's overwhelming Democratic registration edge in general elections. I include RD7, Bryon Short's district, as competitive because it is an open seat with a history a decade ago of voting Republican. But that race will depend heavily on who will run to replace Short. So what are you all hearing out there? Who is running? Who is retiring?

I touched on this last week, and it is a huge question heading into the GOP, and to a lesser extent, Democratic primaries. From the Washington Post:

“Trump’s unexpected and sustained popularity has, at least in part, been fueled by his appeal to a voting bloc that seems to be emerging: blue-collar workers without college degrees who are slightly younger than the traditional Republican voter. Many say they haven’t cared about politics until now, as they flock to Trump rallies like groupies to a rock concert, read his books, buy his products, quote his jokes and follow his social-media accounts.” “But is their devotion to Trump deep enough to vote? For those who don’t regularly vote in primaries, doing so for the first time is a hurdle — especially in Iowa, which uses a caucus system that can intimidate first-timers.”

A quote in the piece was symbolic of a large number of responses about the Trump voter's commitment to vote and caucus:

“We’re going to see ... With kids and grandkids and all this, it’s kind of hectic ... We’ll look into it. If our time is available, then yeah, maybe we’ll do it. Maybe. We’ll have to see,” said Randy Reynolds, a diehard Donald Trump supporter who’s just not sure if he’ll show up to vote. The Washington Post reports that many of Trump’s supporters, unsurprisingly, say the same thing.

I would not be surprised if Trump loses Iowa by a significant margin. He may not even finish in second place.

Peter Beinart says a new Liberal era is beginning? Beginning? It already begun. Back in 2006.

“That doesn’t mean the Republicans won’t retain strength in the nation’s statehouses and in Congress. It doesn’t mean a Republican won’t sooner or later claim the White House. It means that on domestic policy—foreign policy is following a different trajectory, as it often does—the terms of the national debate will continue tilting to the left. The next Democratic president will be more liberal than Barack Obama. The next Republican president will be more liberal than George W. Bush.” “In the late ’60s and ’70s, amid left-wing militancy and racial strife, a liberal era ended. Today, amid left-wing militancy and racial strife, a liberal era is only just beginning.”