Yesterday, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden ran the Delaware Distance Classic 15 K (9 miles) at Frawley Stadium and finished in 9th place in his age group (40 to 44) and 51st overall. His time was 1:04:49.
Mike Castle did not enter the race.
Yesterday, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden ran the Delaware Distance Classic 15 K (9 miles) at Frawley Stadium and finished in 9th place in his age group (40 to 44) and 51st overall. His time was 1:04:49.
Mike Castle did not enter the race.
From Steve Singiser:
In the Delaware Senate race, it is good news/bad news for the GOP. The good news: newly minted Senate candidate Mike Castle is sitting on over three-quarters of a million cash-on-hand. The bad news: he raised just eighty-seven grand for the quarter, which makes it evident that he was hardly “ramping up” for his Senate bid.
$87,000 is lower than thee two previous quarters this year. This could mean two things: 1) Mike Castle thinks he is going to walk into the Senate without a competitive challenge from either O’Donnell or the Democrats, so there is no need to raise money like he would have to in a competitive race; or 2) Mike Castle was not planning on running at all, and instead was pressured into it by national Republicans who promised him funding later in the campaign.
I am not ruling out the possibility that it could both. Maybe he did not want to run, but the field was cleared for him anyway, so he said what the hell?
But now that he is a Senate candidate, he has to raise tons of money in this final quarter of 2009. If only to scare off Biden. Because, right now, if I am Biden, I am laughing at these fundraising figures.
It really is a classic. Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell lambasts the President for getting the award because …. wait for it…. the President should be more belligerent and desirous of war. Before we get to that point of the rant, let’s review something that she gets wrong in her third sentence of her guest post:
It’s highly unlikely that they nominated him on the merits of his predecessor, so I am a bit confused about which accomplishments as a community organizer qualified him for this award.
Ah, Christine! That is precisely why the award was made: his predecessor. I will let Kavips explain:
He won the prize not because he was so good… but because: THE REPUBLICANS WERE SO BAD. Horrible really, a national disgrace.. America is paying the price for it today.
This metaphor best describes it.
It’s as if one drained a sewer and let nature take over. Those who stood at its lip and quaffed at the odious stench a year ago, returned one year later to see a few blades of grass and flowers sprouting… noticed a tremendous difference… And to anyone living near that sewer, the difference is cataclysmic… No smell, no putridness, no gagging, all traits experienced under the Republican leadership…
So some credit is due. Obama drained the sewer. But it needs to be remembered, his winning of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2009, is not a measure of how he was so great.. he is normal… It reflects instead, that the Republican Party is so vile, stinky, with a putrid smell that makes one vomit, that any improvement, however slight, is welcome.
Get it Christine. The predecessor, George W. Bush, that you admire so much was so God awful that he just may have won his successor the Nobel Peace Prize for the sole accomplishment of NOT being George W. Bush or a Republican. So, you got it wrong, President Obama did not win the Nobel Peace Prize on the merits of his predecessor, he won it on the demerits of him.
But let’s continue with Christine’s rant:
So let’s take a look at what he’s done to achieve world peace during the first few months of his Presidency. […]
In the past few months, the Obama Administration has cut our missile defense spending in the midst of a pending nuclear war, turned its back on Israel in her own fight against Iran, denied access the best equipment for our military, but takes regular jaunts overseas for great photo-ops.
So, let me get this straight, Christine wants nuclear war with Iran and an unnecessary and massive taxpayer spending on the F-22 and a missile defense shield, and with those two objectives she foresees, what? Well, I don’t know what she foresees, but it is not peace. I always love the delicious hypocrisy of a Republican decrying wasteful spending in Washington all the while demanding more and more unnecessarily wasteful military spending. Indeed, Christine gets in a few shots at the President in her crazed diatribe about wasting taxpayer money on the President’s trips abroad. Ok, so in Christine’s world, spending taxpayer money for the President to travel overseas for diplomatic summits and multinational conferences is bad, but spending taxpayer money on a war with Iran, on an absurdly wasteful military boondoggle known as the missile shield, and on unnecessary F-22 fighter planes, not to mention escalating the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, well, all of that spending is ok.
Let’s be honest here. Republicans are in full freak mode today over the Nobel Peace Prize because they do not like the Nobel Peace Prize. They do not like diplomacy. They do not like international cooperation. They do not like the pursuit of a real peace. They will say they want peace, but the peace they seek is a Pax Americana, where America achieves peace through the forced subjugation of the entire planet. What they like is bombs, body counts and war. For that is what brings them their peace.
Add to that the fact that Republicans really really really, and I mean really hate President Obama. He drives them bonkers, rabidly insane. So when you have President Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize, you have the recipe for Peak Wingnut. A perfect storm of conservative self immolation that would be hysterical if these same conservatives were not also in control of this nation’s only viable minority party.
Yes, you read that right.
The conventional wisdom is that Castle’s entrance into the Senate race not only makes this race competitive, but also makes Castle the likely winner of the race no matter who he faces. However, Public Policy Polling says that if Beau Biden runs, Democrats still favored to keep the seat.
When we polled the state in March Castle was leading Biden 44-36. But not surprisingly his name recognition was also ten points higher. Among respondents who had an opinion of Biden, whether it was positive or negative, the Democrat led 43-41. And the undecideds in such a scenario were 64% Democratic to 12% Republican, as well as 35% African American.
So Castle’s early poll leads are largely a function of name recognition, and given his nearly 30 years in statewide office really aren’t that substantial.
By this time next year everyone in Delaware’s going to know who Beau Biden is. Democrats who have a positive opinion of both Castle and Biden and are torn about who to vote for are more likely to be influenced by Joe Biden as a candidate surrogate than anyone Republicans could possibly send to the state. And if it’s necessary Barack Obama will come in to reach out to those blacks who were only giving Biden 52% of the vote on our poll earlier this year (and folks don’t realize that Delaware has one of the highest black populations in the country.)
Although it’s not a perfect comparison, when Delaware voters had the choice between a popular old politician and a popular young politician in 2000 they chose Tom Carper over incumbent Bill Roth by a 56-44 margin in an election cycle that you would have to describe as pretty much a wash nationally.
Interesting. Jason Scott thinks that Beau Biden will not make the race. So that probably means he will. Just kidding, Jason. Seriously, I think Beau Biden will run if only to fulfill his role in the family mythology. His father won his Senate race by beating a long time incumbent, and while this is an open seat, that is what Mike Castle is, a 28 year statewide incumbent.
Castle is in. I must say I am pretty surprised by his decision. Everything over the past year, from his anemic fundraising to his delays in announcing to his lukewarm uninterested comments on the race to his wife’s desire for a Florida retirement to his confrontations with the Crazy Eileens of downstate to his health and his age all led me to believe that Castle was calling it a day.
He is going to get serious competition for the race, whether that be in the form of Beau Biden, John Carney or Matt Denn. The Democrats are not going to just give away a Senate seat just because “The Delaware Way” demands it. Indeed, I still find it hard to believe that Castle is going to run a competitive campaign, but that is probably because I have never seen Castle run a competitive campaign. I was 16 in 1992, the last real competitive campaign he had. Will he raise enough money for the race? And if he doesn’t, does he have a committment from the NRSC or the RNC?
And what does his decision mean for the rest of state wide races. As we know, former Lt. Governor John Carney is running for Congress. Local right wing whackjob Christine O’Donnell is running for Senate, which means Castle will have a primary, but probably not a competitive one that he will have to worrry about.
So now all eyes turn to Attorney General Beau Biden. Will he or won’t he? The Delaware Way requires that Biden run for reelection as AG in 2010, and then he can run for Senate in 2014 when Castle really retires. But is that what he is going to do? It might be the smart thing for him to do, since he has been away from the state serving honorably in Iraq for a year. But will he face pressure from national Democrats, including his Vice Presidential father, to run now? And if he doesn’t run, will John Carney or Matt Denn run in his place? And if either one of them does run for Senate, does the other run for the House? And if not, who runs for the House? Beau? New Castle County Executive Chris Coons? State Senator Mike Katz?
Oh the fun is just beginning.
Breaking News Update:
From Politico
Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) will be running for Vice President Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in Delaware, according to a source connected to the congressman, instantly giving Republicans the opportunity to flip a traditionally-Democratic seat in their column.
WDEL is reporting that Michael Castle has scheduled a press conference for noon today. WDEL called it “ambiguous” in their tweet.
Last chance for predictions!
Update by Delaware Dem:
I removed the question mark from the title of this post due the News Journal article which states:
U.S. Rep. Mike Castle will announce today at a noon press conference whether he will seek public office again, his spokeswoman confirmed.
This is it. Our long local nightmare is over. Finally the tease ends.
I know there are posters here that believe Mike Castle is unbeatable and that if he enters the Senate race, he’ll win. It may be true that Castle would win the race, but he will have to work for it and not rely on his name recognition and nice guy reputation. I believe that Mike Castle is being hurt by the unpopularity of Republicans and their agenda of no. Let’s look at some polling numbers:
The Public Policy Polling survey showed Castle leading Biden, the son of Vice President Joseph Biden, 44 percent to 36 percent. The automated survey of 782 Delaware voters was conducted March 5-8 and had a 3.5-point margin of error.
A Democratic polling firm had Castle leading by 8%.
A new Susquehanna Polling and Research poll in Delaware shows Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) soundly beating Attorney General Beau Biden (D) in a possible match up for U.S. Senate in 2010.
Castle leads Biden, 55% to 34% with only 8% undecided.
I think it’s very difficult to compare these two polls, but they did have Beau Biden at about the same number. I suspect Susquehanna pushed leaners harder. 21% is a big lead, however, and 55% is good for someone with the record and name-recognition of Mike Castle. The newest poll showed a lead by Castle of only 5% (47%-42%), and Castle below 50%. This poll was by a respected polling outfit, Rasmussen.
So let’s read the tea leaves here:
My reading of the tea leaves suggest that Castle is out and Biden is in.
From a tip from Political Observer:
The DSCC says the Beau Biden will run for Senate.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Robert Menendez of New Jersey said Thursday he fully expects Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden to run next year for the seat now held by Democratic Sen. [Ted Kaufman]
The game is starting! Beau Biden’s entry ensures that this will be a closely watched Senate race, even if Castle doesn’t enter.
A very special tipster (Jason330) passed along a tip to a new Rasumussen poll on the Castle-Biden match-up. Rasmussen also polled the Biden-O’Donnell race. Here are some results:
The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the state finds that longtime Republican Congressman Mike Castle beats state Attorney General Beau Biden by five points – 47% to 42% – in a hypothetical match-up for the seat Biden’s father held for 36 years. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Against the only declared GOP candidate for the race, Christine O’Donnell, Biden wins by nine points – 49% to 40%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and eight percent are not sure (8%) how they’ll vote.
Castle carries the male vote by 25 points, while Biden fares better among women by 13 points. While both candidates get over 70% support from those in their respective parties, Castle wins voters not affiliated with either party by a two-to-one margin.
Those numbers don’t look that great for Castle, actually, especially since Rasmussen has a Republican lean. Jason thinks this means that Castle will bow out, and I have to concur.
Once again we’re reaching another Mike Castle-imposed Senate run deadline. Any new information? New tea leaves to read?
What about you Beau Biden? You’re back in Delaware – are you going to run?
What’s a political junkie to do while they make their backroom deals decisions.
FWIW, here’s the latest rumor from Political Wire.
Delaware Attorney Gen. Beau Biden (D) is expected to return from his National Guard duty in Iraq at the end of the month, reports WBOC-TV. The big decision awaiting him is whether he’ll run for the U.S. Senate vacated by his father.
“Barred from politics while on active duty, Biden has not been able to say a word about the expectations that have mounted while he was gone.”
However, Erin McPike reports it looks like Biden “is definitely in” the race and that would likely affect the decision making of the leading Republican who might run, Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE).
It sounds like the end of the month should be interesting. The end of September is also Mike Castle’s latest self-imposed deadline. Are Castle and Biden in some kind of dance waiting to see who jumps first? Anyway, I’ll go with my gut feel that Castle isn’t running.
So, does everyone remember back in June when Mike Castle said he would make a decision on his future by August 30? So far, no announcements yet.
I think the longer Mike Castle doesn’t make a decision the more likely Castle will be the Senate candidate by default. OK, tea leaf readers, what are your thoughts?
Castle in or out for Senate?
Castle in or out for House?
If not Castle, then what Republican will run for Senate and House?