Tag Archives: Mike Castle

Snowball’s Chance In Hell

John Tobin has some analysis regarding whether Christine O’Donnell has the possible votes to beat Mike Castle in the 2010 US Senate Republican Primary. In the post at Politics By The Numbers, Tobin looks at the results of the 2006 US Senate Republican Primary between O’Donnell, Mike Protack and Jan Ting. Even though O’Donnell got smacked around in this primary, garnering less than half the votes Protack received, her supporters still think she has a chance to win a state-wide race — any state-wide race. My reading of Tobin’s post is that it would take nothing short of a miracle for O’Donnell to beat Castle.

Does O’Donnell have a chance? What would the Perfect Storm look like that would enable O’Donnell to win? Would it take nothing short of Republican fratricide for Castle to lose? Even if the end of the world came and O’Donnell wins, how badly would she loose to anyone the Democrats put up against her?

BREAKING: BIDEN / CASTLE TIED (Updated with more numbers)

A new Research 2000 poll is out concerning both the Senate and House races, and other elected officials in Delaware:

Research 2000. 10/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% (no trend lines)
Link: http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/10/14/DE/395

Beau Biden (D) 45
Mike Castle (R) 46

From Daily Kos:

It couldn’t be any tighter in this marquee matchup. Castle leads other potential match ups (Castle 51 Kaufman 37, Castle 49, Carney 41, Castle 51 Coons 39), but the Biden-Castle one is most likely because the political establishment loves its monarchies, and so do the voters. Interestingly, while Castle has solid Republican support (82-9), Biden gets less than three-quarters of Democrats (72-21). Independents lean toward Castle (48-40). If Biden brings Democrats home, it gets much harder for Castle to win.

Both Castle and Biden have nearly identical approval ratings as well, providing perhaps the most even matchup of the cycle. While some prognosticators are already slotting this race as a “lean Republican”, the data suggests this is about as pure a “toss-up” as you can have in politics.

We also polled Democrat John Carney in two potential House matchups, and the Democrat has a huge early lead. That race isn’t expected to be competitive giving Democrats an easy pickup of Castle’s vacated seat.

Make sure you see the complete results at the link. I’ll try to post them up shortly, but there is a lot of data on Fav/Unfav on alot of our favorite targets.

FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE

  VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
BIDEN 29 36 15 14 6
KAUFMAN 15 21 13 13 38
CARNEY 19 22 10 9 40
COONS 16 18 5 3 58
CASTLE 26 38 18 12 6
COPELAND 5 6 4 4 81
LAVELLE 3 6 3 3 85
MARKELL 24 31 16 12 17
CARPER 24 29 17 14 16
OBAMA 30 34 17 15 4

 

Beau Biden

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 65 29 6
MEN 61 35 4
WOMEN 69 23 8
DEMOCRATS 86 9 5
REPUBLICANS 30 66 4
INDEPENDENTS 71 19 10
18-29 71 23 6
30-44 66 27 7
45-59 64 32 4
60+ 60 33 7

Ted Kaufman

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 36 26 38
MEN 33 30 37
WOMEN 39 22 39
DEMOCRATS 57 9 34
REPUBLICANS 6 58 36
INDEPENDENTS 33 17 50
18-29 39 23 38
30-44 38 25 37
45-59 34 27 39
60+ 33 31 36

John Carney

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 41 19 40
MEN 37 23 40
WOMEN 45 15 40
DEMOCRATS 62 6 32
REPUBLICANS 10 46 44
INDEPENDENTS 41 10 49
18-29 44 17 39
30-44 43 17 40
45-59 39 21 40
60+ 38 22 40

Chris Coons

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 34 8 58
MEN 32 8 60
WOMEN 36 8 56
DEMOCRATS 54 4 42
REPUBLICANS 7 16 77
INDEPENDENTS 29 6 65
18-29 37 6 57
30-44 36 6 58
45-59 32 10 58
60+ 31 11 58

Mike Castle

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 64 30 6
MEN 69 28 3
WOMEN 59 32 9
DEMOCRATS 45 49 6
REPUBLICANS 84 11 5
INDEPENDENTS 77 16 7
18-29 59 34 7
30-44 63 31 6
45-59 66 28 6
60+ 68 27 5

Charlie Copeland

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11 8 81
MEN 13 7 80
WOMEN 9 9 82
DEMOCRATS 7 12 81
REPUBLICANS 18 3 79
INDEPENDENTS 9 7 84
18-29 7 9 84
30-44 10 8 82
45-59 12 7 81
60+ 13 7 80

Greg Lavelle

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 9 6 85
MEN 10 6 84
WOMEN 8 6 86
DEMOCRATS 5 9 86
REPUBLICANS 16 2 82
INDEPENDENTS 7 6 87
18-29 5 8 87
30-44 8 6 86
45-59 11 5 84
60+ 11 5 84

Jack Markell

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 55 28 17
MEN 51 33 16
WOMEN 59 23 18
DEMOCRATS 76 7 17
REPUBLICANS 22 64 14
INDEPENDENTS 58 21 21
18-29 58 25 17
30-44 56 27 17
45-59 54 29 17
60+ 52 32 16

Tom Carper

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 53 31 16
MEN 49 36 15
WOMEN 57 26 17
DEMOCRATS 74 9 17
REPUBLICANS 21 65 14
INDEPENDENTS 54 29 17
18-29 56 27 17
30-44 54 30 16
45-59 52 32 16
60+ 49 35 16

Barack Obama

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 64 32 4
MEN 58 39 3
WOMEN 70 25 5
DEMOCRATS 87 10 3
REPUBLICANS 26 69 5
INDEPENDENTS 69 25 6
18-29 72 25 3
30-44 65 30 5
45-59 62 35 3
60+ 57 37 6

QUESTION: Beau Biden v. Mike Castle?

  BEAU BIDEN MIKE CASTLE UNDECIDED
ALL 45 46 9
MEN 40 52 8
WOMEN 50 40 10
DEMOCRATS 72 21 7
REPUBLICANS 9 82 9
INDEPENDENTS 40 48 12
18-29 48 42 10
30-44 47 44 9
45-59 43 48 9
60+ 42 51 7

QUESTION: Castle v. Kaufman?

  TED KAUFMAN MIKE CASTLE UNDECIDED
ALL 37 51 12
MEN 33 57 10
WOMEN 41 45 14
DEMOCRATS 63 24 13
REPUBLICANS 5 86 9
INDEPENDENTS 28 58 14
18-29 40 47 13
30-44 39 49 12
45-59 35 53 12
60+ 34 57 9

Castle v. Carney?

  JOHN CARNEY MIKE CASTLE UNDECIDED
ALL 41 49 10
MEN 37 54 9
WOMEN 45 44 11
DEMOCRATS 68 23 9
REPUBLICANS 6 85 9
INDEPENDENTS 33 53 14
18-29 45 44 11
30-44 43 47 10
45-59 39 51 10
60+ 37 54 9

Castle v. Coons?

  CHRIS COONS MIKE CASTLE UNDECIDED
ALL 39 51 10
MEN 35 56 9
WOMEN 43 46 11
DEMOCRATS 65 25 10
REPUBLICANS 5 86 9
INDEPENDENTS 31 57 12
18-29 43 46 11
30-44 41 50 9
45-59 37 53 10
60+ 34 56 10

John Carney v. Copeland?

  JOHN CARNEY CHARLIE COPELAND UNDECIDED
ALL 44 21 35
MEN 41 25 34
WOMEN 47 17 36
DEMOCRATS 69 6 25
REPUBLICANS 8 43 49
INDEPENDENTS 42 21 37
18-29 47 17 36
30-44 46 19 35
45-59 42 23 35
60+ 40 26 34

Carney v. Greg Lavelle?

  JOHN CARNEY GREG LAVELLE UNDECIDED
ALL 45 18 37
MEN 42 22 36
WOMEN 48 14 38
DEMOCRATS 71 5 24
REPUBLICANS 8 38 54
INDEPENDENTS 43 16 41
18-29 49 15 36
30-44 47 16 37
45-59 43 20 37
60+ 40 23 37

Demographics

MEN 283 47%
WOMEN 317 53%
DEMOCRATS 280 47%
REPUBLICANS 188 31%
INDEPENDENTS/OTHER 132 22%
18-29 107 18%
30-44 187 31%
45-59 217 36%
60+ 89 15%

George Will Writes About Castle, Adds Nothing

Dishonest pundit George Will spews conventional wisdom about Mike Castle and the Delaware U.S. Senate race in his latest column.

Demure Delaware was the first state to ratify the Constitution, but since then has not made many waves. It might, however, be part of a political wave a year from now, thanks to a direct descendant of Benjamin Franklin.

Here’s what we learn in the column:

  • Joe Biden held the seat for 36 years.
  • Beau Biden may run for the seat.
  • Mike Castle has not lost a statewide race.
  • Castle has averaged 65% in his previous races.
  • Delaware hasn’t had a Republican senator since 1994.
  • I’m not sure what George Will added that couldn’t be found in wikipedia. As an added bonus, George Will also explains to us that high unemployment is bad for incumbents in general and incumbents with re-elect numbers of less than 50% are in trouble. Just remember folks, George Will is a highly respected political columnist who regularly appears on TV. I can totally understand why now. Looking up this stuff in wikipedia is hard work!

    Rethugs Already Crying That D’s Are Playing the ‘Age’ Card

    Somebody better get the waahmbulance ready to transport Mike Castle to Stonegates. National Rethug aparatchiks are already crying Beowulf (or is that ‘Grey Wolf’ or ‘Dale Wolf’) at the perception that D’s are playing the age card on Metamucil Mike, according to Plum Line’s Greg Sargent:

    “It strikes us as a very questionable line of attack to make age an issue when you consider that in that very same media market, the Democrats have a candidate in Arlen Specter who is almost 10 years older and first ran for office in 1965,” NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh emailed. Delaware and Pennsylvania share some media markets. (Memo to Rethugs: Age IS a legit issue, especially when taken in the context of one’s ability to serve a six-year term, and especially if there’s a Joe Sestak waiting in the wings.)

    Republicans are already using this to paint Dems as disrespectful of the elderly. “I can’t imagine this will sit well with Delaware voters when you consider the high regard Congressman Castle is held in and his distinguished record of public service,” Walsh said, confirming the NRSC would keep up this line of attack.

    Hmmm, far be it from me to point out how flawed this strategy is, but does it really help Castle for the Rethugs to assist the echo chamber in reinforcing that he’s been in elective politics for 42 years, and that he’s getting up there, even by Vicmead Hunt Club standards?  Just one brief health issue like Bill Roth’s fainting spell, and the issue is even more front and center than the R’s have already  ensured (or is that Ensured?) that it is. And isn’t nominating someone who works to deny affordable health care to tens of millions of Americans more disrespectful to the elderly than anything the D’s are alleged to have done?

    There are pitfalls, however, in a strategy pitting (relatively) youthful challengers vs over-the-hill incumbents. Cale Boggs cleaned Joe Biden’s clock and Bill Roth wiped up the Federal Reserve’s floor with Tom Carper. Wait, did I get that right, or do I need to take that that memory stuff, gingko, eukanuba, eye of Newt…?

    CASTLE TO RUN

    Breaking News Update:

    From Politico

    Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) will be running for Vice President Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in Delaware, according to a source connected to the congressman, instantly giving Republicans the opportunity to flip a traditionally-Democratic seat in their column.

    WDEL is reporting that Michael Castle has scheduled a press conference for noon today.  WDEL called it “ambiguous” in their tweet.

    Last chance for predictions!

    Update by Delaware Dem:

    I removed the question mark from the title of this post due the News Journal article which states:

    U.S. Rep. Mike Castle will announce today at a noon press conference whether he will seek public office again, his spokeswoman confirmed.

    This is it. Our long local nightmare is over. Finally the tease ends.

    The Invincible Mike Castle

    I know there are posters here that believe Mike Castle is unbeatable and that if he enters the Senate race, he’ll win. It may be true that Castle would win the race, but he will have to work for it and not rely on his name recognition and nice guy reputation. I believe that Mike Castle is being hurt by the unpopularity of Republicans and their agenda of no. Let’s look at some polling numbers:

    From March 2009:

    The Public Policy Polling survey showed Castle leading Biden, the son of Vice President Joseph Biden, 44 percent to 36 percent. The automated survey of 782 Delaware voters was conducted March 5-8 and had a 3.5-point margin of error.

    A Democratic polling firm had Castle leading by 8%.

    From May 2009:

    A new Susquehanna Polling and Research poll in Delaware shows Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) soundly beating Attorney General Beau Biden (D) in a possible match up for U.S. Senate in 2010.

    Castle leads Biden, 55% to 34% with only 8% undecided.

    I think it’s very difficult to compare these two polls, but they did have Beau Biden at about the same number. I suspect Susquehanna pushed leaners harder. 21% is a big lead, however, and 55% is good for someone with the record and name-recognition of Mike Castle. The newest poll showed a lead by Castle of only 5% (47%-42%), and Castle below 50%. This poll was by a respected polling outfit, Rasmussen.

    So let’s read the tea leaves here:

  • Castle has let several self-imposed deadlines pass with no announcement.
  • Castle did not attend the AIDS walk last weekend, despite attending every other year. This is an event very well attended by politicians.
  • Castle is reportedly avoiding the local media.
  • Castle is hosting a previously scheduled event in October, the event is being co-hosted by Kovach, whom Castle has spoken highly of.
  • Castle’s Senate elect numbers have deteriorated by as much as 16%.
  • The head of the DSCC says Biden is in the race.
  • My reading of the tea leaves suggest that Castle is out and Biden is in.

    Rasmussen Polls The Castle-Biden Match-Up

    A very special tipster (Jason330) passed along a tip to a new Rasumussen poll on the Castle-Biden match-up. Rasmussen also polled the Biden-O’Donnell race. Here are some results:

    The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the state finds that longtime Republican Congressman Mike Castle beats state Attorney General Beau Biden by five points – 47% to 42% – in a hypothetical match-up for the seat Biden’s father held for 36 years. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

    Against the only declared GOP candidate for the race, Christine O’Donnell, Biden wins by nine points – 49% to 40%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and eight percent are not sure (8%) how they’ll vote.

    Castle carries the male vote by 25 points, while Biden fares better among women by 13 points. While both candidates get over 70% support from those in their respective parties, Castle wins voters not affiliated with either party by a two-to-one margin.

    Those numbers don’t look that great for Castle, actually, especially since Rasmussen has a Republican lean. Jason thinks this means that Castle will bow out, and I have to concur.

    Mike Castle Watch

    Once again we’re reaching another Mike Castle-imposed Senate run deadline. Any new information? New tea leaves to read?

    What about you Beau Biden? You’re back in Delaware – are you going to run?

    What’s a political junkie to do while they make their backroom deals decisions.

    Guest Post: Kowalko’s Open Letter to Delaware’s Delegation

    Dear Senators Carper, Kauffman and Congressman Castle,

    As a Delaware State legislator whose focus and efforts are dedicated to the best interests of all Delawareans just as your efforts have always been focused, I am writing you to ask you to reconsider the consequences of your vote to cut-off “housing and community grant funding” to ACORN.

    I fully realize the difficulty, despite the media portrayal that it was “easy”, in casting such a vote. However I feel it is my responsibility to inform you of the potentially disastrous consequences of such a vote. These consequences will directly impact many of the most vulnerable families in Delaware who are at imminent risk of joining the ranks of the homeless and foregoing any chance of participating in the “American dream”.

    I also ask you to ponder that, as a representative of the people of Delaware, consideration should be given to the fact that Delaware ACORN is untainted by scandal and has acquitted itself well, throughout its history, as a servant of the most vulnerable and at risk people in Delaware.

    As you are aware, Delaware Superior Court President Judge Vaughn recently signed an administrative directive to assist those desperate homeowners facing foreclosure proceedings on their homes. You should also be aware that Delaware ACORN was prominent in bringing this program to fruition. What you may not be aware of, and I ask you to consider, is the fact that ACORN had committed its resources and people to be the foremost outreach group responsible for notifying those affected homeowners so that mandated time constraints would be complied with. Violation of these time constraints could render the mediation program inaccessible to these homeowners.

    ACORN’s ability to outreach in specific areas of the community is an integral part of the to the success of the mediation program. This program is consistent with the economic recovery for all residents of Delaware and specifically those families facing loss of their homes.

    Your vote to cut off “housing and community grant funding” to ACORN neutralizes ACORN”S ability to participate in outreach and counseling and risks irreparable damage to a program, nine months in the making, that would not only boost the economic recovery for Delaware but also allow Delaware families to keep alive their chance to participate in the great American dream of independency and success.

    I hope you will reconsider your vote based on consideration of the damage that will be suffered by Delaware families and see fit to somehow correct these unintended circumstances.

    Respectfully yours,

    John A. Kowalko Jr.
    Delaware State Representative 25th District

    Someone Needs To Update Mike Castle’s Talking Points

    Steve Benen at Washington Monthly reports on a health care forum held by Rep. Eric Cantor and Rep. Bobby Scott in Virginia:

    Cantor was pressed, however, on a couple areas of interest.

    Richmond resident Ben Ragsdale demanded to know how Republicans were going to expand access to healthcare if they have only a four-page list of bullet-points as their plan.

    “What is your substantive proposal to meet these real everyday problems that people have? Where’s the beef?” Ragsdale asked, triggering applause from the crowd.

    The telegenic GOP lawmaker said Republicans and Democrats agree on 80 percent of fixing the nation’s healthcare system, but could not show the crowd a detailed plan that has been endorsed by House Republicans.

    Cantor earlier this year said House Republican leaders would release an alternative healthcare plan, but have not done so yet.

    Those are some great points by the questioner – stop just saying no and tell us what you want to do. The Republicans have no plan and I doubt they’ll release one. However, Benen points out that Rep. Boustany also used the 80% support line and that this undercuts their other talking point:

    The standard Republican talking point is that Democrats need to scrap all of their work, start over, and make GOP lawmakers happy from now on. But the next question remains obvious: if Republicans are already on board with four-fifths of what Democrats have in mind, and four-fifths of the congressional committees have already approved reform measures, why in the world should Democratic policymakers “start from scratch” or “hit the reset button”?

    Mike Castle was pushing the exact same talking point at the town hall that I attended – that there’s no rush and we need to slow down. I wonder what the new GOP talking point will be now, that we need to continue arguing about the other 20%? Despite what the GOP has pushed all summer, most everyone recognizes the need for reform and the GOP has fallen into the trap that Frank Luntz warned them about – to be careful to be pro-reform and not just pro-status quo.

    (9) Americans will expect the government to look out for those who truly can’t afford healthcare. Here is the perfect sentence for addressing cost and the limited role for government that wins you allies rather than enemies: “A balanced, common sense approach that provides assistance to those who truly need it and keeps healthcare patient-centered rather than government-centered for everyone.”

    (10) It’s not enough to just say what you’re against. You have to tell them what you’re for. It’s okay (and even necessary) for your campaign to center around why this healthcare plan is bad for America. But if you offer no vision for what’s better for America, you’ll be relegated to insignificance at best and labeled obstructionist at worst. What Americans are looking for in healthcare that your “solution” will provide is, in a word, more: “more access to more treatments and more doctors…with less interference from insurance companies and Washington politicians and special interests.”

    Castle and Biden to Play Chicken?

    Senate Guru has a nice post up about some of the potential gamesmanship between Beau Biden and Michael Castle in the next month or so.

    Beau is due back this month from Iraq and Castle has been sitting on the pot for way too long.  Senate Guru’s guess is that neither of them wants to battle the other.  This may be true, but all we know for sure is that Mike Castle doesn’t want to go against Biden, otherwise he would have jumped in the ring, accepting all challengers.

    For Beau, this suggests that if he comes back and jumps in the race with both feet, he’ll scare the “moderate poseur” into exile on the sunny beaches of Florida.  While I am on the record as not being 100% behind Beau, I’ll take him in a heartbeat over Castle.

    Rumor Patrol: Beau Biden Will Run For Senate

    FWIW, here’s the latest rumor from Political Wire.

    Delaware Attorney Gen. Beau Biden (D) is expected to return from his National Guard duty in Iraq at the end of the month, reports WBOC-TV. The big decision awaiting him is whether he’ll run for the U.S. Senate vacated by his father.

    “Barred from politics while on active duty, Biden has not been able to say a word about the expectations that have mounted while he was gone.”

    However, Erin McPike reports it looks like Biden “is definitely in” the race and that would likely affect the decision making of the leading Republican who might run, Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE).

    It sounds like the end of the month should be interesting. The end of September is also Mike Castle’s latest self-imposed deadline. Are Castle and Biden in some kind of dance waiting to see who jumps first? Anyway, I’ll go with my gut feel that Castle isn’t running.

    Another Deadline Whizzes By

    So, does everyone remember back in June when Mike Castle said he would make a decision on his future by August 30? So far, no announcements yet.

    I think the longer Mike Castle doesn’t make a decision the more likely Castle will be the Senate candidate by default. OK, tea leaf readers, what are your thoughts?

    Castle in or out for Senate?
    Castle in or out for House?
    If not Castle, then what Republican will run for Senate and House?