Biden Makes the Cut.
Now this is interesting.
Before leaving on his overseas trip, Sen. Barack Obama reviewed information on several prospects and narrowed the field. His focus now includes five colleagues in the U.S. Senate — Joseph Biden, Evan Bayh, Chris Dodd, Hillary Clinton and Jack Reed — and two governors, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, according to Democratic operatives, though he could still make a different pick.
Is it really possible that Papa Joe will be the next Vice President of the United States? It seems he has made the cut as a finalist for the selection. I am still convinced that the final three will be Tim Kaine, Kathleen Sebelius, and Hillary Clinton, with Obama most likely going with Tim Kaine for the following reasons: 1) Kaine is a new face that reinforces his message of change and a new politics; 2) given the success of Obama’s overseas trip the last ten days, and with both Bush and McCain now changing their Iraq and Afghanistan positions to match Obama’s, having a national security or foreign policy VP seems less important now; 3) it won’t be Hillary; and 4) because it won’t be Hillary, it can’t be Sebelius, since that may piss off Hillary’s ardent women supporters who will illogically be upset (this is something I never understand: if you supported Hillary because you wanted a woman President, how can you be upset that there would be a woman Vice President, no matter if it is Hillary or not?).
But I digress.
Given the success of Obama’s trip, I don’t see him picking Joe Biden. But, for selfish reasons, I would love to see it happen. For it would shake up Delaware politics for sure, what with all the speculation on who Governor Minner (or Governor Carney or Governor Markell) would pick to replace him.
I disagree that the trip abroad automatically adorns Obama with foreign policy creds.
Rather, even though his campaign feined shock that little of substance came out of his Berlin speech and even upon observing the osmosis of his policy of engagement to GOPerhead camps, Obama needs Biden.
Bayh is the only other heavy-hitter in that area but Biden has racked up the stats.
Remember the osmosis of Biden’s early (joint) vision for a federated Iraq into the James Baker ideology?
Obama’s deflection of surge success included the obvious benefit of 30K additional troops but also spoke to the tribal affiliations’ and calming processes within the very factions whose political success will be best drawn by Biden’s plan.
Biden for VEEP!!!!!!!!!!
I think Biden has a shot because: 1. He’s a good attack dog, and 2. He’s got the whole “elder statesmen with extensive foreign policy experience” thing going – which basically breaks down (for the over 50 crowd) to code-speak… “Relax, I got the kid’s back.”
In the end I don’t think Joe makes it, even though he will fairly obviously be in the cabinet.
He doesn’t make it because the calculus for Obama is still what it always has been for other candidates. More than the shoring up of his gravitas factor with foreign policy, which is what Biden could give him, Obama needs a VP who can tip the balance in a key state, and Delaware (a tiny, solidly Dem state) is not that.
I agree with you that it’ll probably be Kaine, but I think so for a different reason: Kaine pushed Obama over the top in Virginia, which is a critical state not just because of the blue/red color change, but because the polls close there early while much of the rest of the country is still voting. Virginia therefore has a tremendous chance (especially if Obama also picks up North Carolina, which right now is a 50-50 shot) to start a big log-roll in Obama’s direction.
Here’s my Biden question: everybody looks for him to be Sec State; I think in Democratic terms there are multiple candidates that a Pres Obama could use for State; I’m thinking that the Obama folks want Biden for Sec Def.
Of course if Obama is dumb enough to select a running mate with no foreign policy credentials or name recognition at all, like Ann Venneman (quick, who is she?), then he will really have stepped in it.
http://news.aol.com/elections/article/obama-considers-gop-running-mate/101881?icid=100214839x1206267867x1200331373
It won’t be any woman, like Ann Venneman, for the same reason it won’t be Kathleen Sebelius.
As for Biden, I think he could be SecState, SecDef or Attorney General. I think it is more likely he is SecState since he is now the Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and not the Chairman of the Armed Services Committee.
I disagree, Steve. Obama doesn’t need someone who will “deliver” a state. And if that’s all Kaine has to offer, it won’t be Kaine. It doesn’t work that way, any longer. No VP has done so since Johnson.
Also, you’re making a big assumption that because Kaine put Obama “over the top” in the VA primary, it would happen again in the general. Kaine, like most Dems is very popular in Northen, VA and that’s where Obama’s votes came from.
Take Kaine out of the equation, and Biden is a natural fit.
TB
Al Gore was supposed to be able to deliver Tennessee for Clinton, and Bush 41 was supposed to be able to deliver Texas for Reagan. Nor can you give me any other reason that Dan Quayle got on the GOP ticket in 1988 or Lloyd Bentsen on the Dem ticket than to deliver their home states.
Gore did deliver Tennessee for Clinton, twice.
And Bush 41 did deliver Texas for Reagan, twice.
Quayle got on the ticket because Bush 41 needed a young conservative, since he was an old moderate. Back in those days, Indiana was never in any doubt of being a GOP state.
Lloyd Bentsen was chosen for two reason: for his experience and it for geographic balance. It was not expected that he would deliver Texas, since Bush was from there.
If Gore had delivered TN for himself, he would have been President. That fact makes me sad.
Yep.
While Al Gore was supposed to deliver TN for Clinton, there was alot of criticism of Clinton’s pick focused around having two southerners on the ticket and that both were relatively young. And certainly Wyoming was in no danger of voting blue the last few cycles.
I do think that since the role of VP has graduated from its largely ceremonial function (thanks Al Gore!), what skills and expertise a candidate brings is more important that any states they can flip (unless that state is MI, OH or FL). Kaine is an excellent pick, but with Warner running for Senate, the Kaine and Warner networks are going to be think on the ground anyway (along with the huge organizing effort Obama is putting into VA) providing the launchpad for VA to possibly vote blue for President this year.
I think Biden would be an excellent choice but I think he comes with some significant disadvantages – namely DE’s 3 EVs. He has been an excellent surrogate for Obama, probably the best one IMO. Obama may not feel he has to pick a foreign policy expert because Obama pretty much won the Iraq argument with McCain, with Maliki’s help.
I think it could be Kaine or Sebelius. Sebelius doesn’t deliver much in EVs but she’s a popular red-state gov and she has the same kind of coalition strategy as Obama. Kaine is term-limited anyway and he comes from a state that Obama thinks he can take.
The only one I say “ugh” to is Bayh (yuck!) and Reed I just say “who?”
I should have also noted that I’ve often been a total Biden partisan for the VP slot, I’ve also noted where he might be a weakness and that is mainly in having a Dem to run in 2016. Kaine would be a perfect future legacy pick.
Can’t imagine why Obama would pick up any of the Clinton baggage to run with. And I’m really sorry General Clark is not on the short list.
Ditto to your General Clark comment. He was my first choice months ago.
Historical Note:
The last time we had a Vice President from Delaware he became President. The year was 1962 and the movie was “Advise and Consent” starring Henry Fonda.
The Vice President, Harley Hudson from Delaware, was played by Lew Ayres.
Hey there Unstable Isotope! I didn’t mean to put Bayh in there in other than an example of what Biden brings to the job in foreign relations cred among the final five. I consider him Clinton baggage and as such an unfit choice.
Sebelius is so stiff in delivery that I cringe when I see her speaking. I think that the Obama dynamo is better served with a whirlwinder like Biden. He offset his earlier long-winded /spotlight seeker memes in the primary debate.
Mainly, Biden is so well known nationally from teevee and since Obama is saying that people are still getting to know him, Biden’s flashing smile and MSNBC’s love-child status will help a ton with familiarity.
If Joe (the dumbest man in the senate) Biden is tapped for VP:
who does Ruthann apoint to fill out his term?
who gets put on the ballot to run agains Mikes flame – Odonnell?
Seriously, snark – Biden’s the dumbest man in the Senate? I think it’s hard to beat Inhofe for that one, now that Santorum’s gone. Maybe Cornyn will want to jump in the race.
Hey Nancy! I agree that Biden would be an excellent choice for people who still feel Obama’s inexperienced and don’t quite trust him (like my father). Of the ones you listed I think Kaine has the best shot. Clinton would certainly generate a lot of excitement, though.
Yes, it’s fun to think about who Minner would appoint to Biden’s seat – perhaps the losing gubenatorial candidate?
Reed out of contention? I just ran across this:
http://www.beloblog.com/ProJo_Blogs/politics/2008/07/reed-on-the-vic.html
Reed says he doesn’t want to be VP, and won’t serve if asked.
UI,
we need a little Wonk intervention.
Biden is currently running for re-election. DE law doesn’t let him run for two offices at once.
So if he is the vp choice before 4 Sept. then the party bosses put a replacement on the ballot and Minner may put a replacement in office to fill out the final months of his term.
If Biden withdraws from the senate race after 4 september… I don’t think DE law allows for a replacement candidate (not that the law matters much to dems ie Toracelli’s replacement)
It’s almost impossible that a Biden departure would happen after 4 Sept.
Does Minner apoint herself Senator, elevating Carney to Gov. weeks before the primary? and who get the ballot spot for Senate with Carney and Markel locked in a primary battle?
If it is Carney or Markel who runs for Biden’s seat, can they roll roll their state campaign money into a federal race?
What wildcards are out there? Coons? some female Dem? a sitting judge who can retire on a moments notice?
‘if you supported Hillary because you wanted a woman President, how can you be upset that there would be a woman Vice President, no matter if it is Hillary or not?’
Umm…because women are not interchangeable. We supported Hillary because she was an excellent candidate. The fact that she was a woman made her an even more appealing candidate, but we certainly wouldn’t have run to the polls for, say, Claire McAsskill (who, btw, reminds me a bit of Flora, Fauna and Merryweather – the bumbleheaded fairies of Sleeping Beauty fame).
Hard as this may be to believe – we can see beyond the vagina when we’re making a decision. Jeez.
Snark,
DE Law does allow Biden to run for two offices at once.
State election money can’t be used in a federal campaign.
Also, Tim Kaine would be a terrible choice. He’s a political lightweight and he hasn’t accomplished anything substantive in his 2 1/2 years in office. He’s not presidential material; if anything, he’s destined to be Secretary of Transportation.
‘He’s a political lightweight and he hasn’t accomplished anything substantive in his 2 1/2 years in office. ‘
Hmm…sounds familiar. 🙂
The appointment to replace Biden should have been the loser of the gubernatorial race, but now, who knows.
Oh Dominique. Get over it already. Hillary lost. Barack won. The entire planet has moved on, save for you and the batshit crazies at Hillaryis44.
Lighten up, DD, did you not see the little smiley face? Hillary losing doesn’t make the statement any less ironic. Who even mentioned her?
The ‘get over Hillary’ meme is so goddamn old – is that all any of you can come up with when Obama is criticized? It’s so unoriginal and cowardly. I guess it’s much easier to assume that my opinion stems from feelings about Hillary than to have to defend Obama’s shortcomings. Can’t the criticism be about HIM and not her? How does the fact that I think that statement describes him perfectly have ANYTHING to do with Hillary?
Which one of the phrases in the dork jargon list does that fall under – logical fallacy? Ad hominem? Straw man? All I can tell you is that it’s lame. Period. Kind of like your stammering, fluffy, utterly unqualified candidate.
Did it ever occur to you that maybe, just maybe, Hillary supporters (save a handful of freaks) aren’t quite as obsessed with her as Obama supporters are with him and that what we think and feel about Obama has absolutely nothing to do with her? How condescending can you be?
Unlike you freaks, I don’t spend all my days and nights thinking and dreaming about a presidential candidate. I don’t fucking care. Get it through your thick skulls. For me, this is possibly the most uninteresting, unexciting presidential election in all my voting years. I’m completely unimpressed with both of the idiots in the race, to be honest. On the one hand, I’ve got an old guy who doesn’t move or impress me in any way, on the other hand I’ve got a young guy who doesn’t move or impress me in any way. As always, it’s a choice of who’s less unappealing. The only reason I’m even leaning toward McCain is because he’s been in Washington longer and, while some people think that’s part of the problem, I think it helps if a candidate has some experience with maneuvering that machine. Also, it sickens and enrages me to have a candidate shoved down my throat – and you’re blind if you don’t see that happening with Obama. You may easily fall prey to that sort of thing, but I don’t.
I may not vote at all – not because I’m bitter about Hillary, but because I’m bitter about the fact that IT DOESN’T FUCKING MATTER who wins – nothing changes. Ever. Senator Bubble Gum will not bring change, either. Trust me. He’ll probably leave a worse clusterfuck than he found.
Did any of you read the article behind the “Obama’s in the Oval Office” NewYorker cover?
I did. None of it really surprised me. People don’t succeed in Chicago politics by being above-board and kindhearted.