Biggest (Senate) Upset Watch
The biggest Senate upset of election night will be….drum roll…..
John Mackenzie knocking off Liane Sorenson in the 6th Senate District. Senate seats hardly ever change hands in elections, but depend on the occupant to die or retire. This district has been gerrymandered out from under Sorenson though and with the Obama Blue wave rolling with a vengeance through Newark – McKenzie wins.
The second biggest upset will be….
Katz beating Clatworthy to take Charlie Copeland’s old 4th SD seat. Katz has a high registration advantage to overcome – but I have to think that the 4th contains a great many ticket splitters when it comes to this race which picks a professional (like themselves) vs. an Regent’s University doctrinaire Rovian Republican like Son of Clatworthy.
Stay tuned for the Biggest House Upsets tomorrow.
Tags: 2008 Election, Delaware, Dr. Mike Katz, John Clatworthy, John Mackenzie, Liane Sorenson, State Senate
Hmm…I wonder where you are going with this…
“This district has been gerrymandered out from under Sorenson though and with the Obama Blue wave rolling with a vengeance through Newark – McKenzie wins.”
You might be correct! Pike Creek contains many in the younger crowd and surely with a lot of young professional getting boned by Bush’s policies just maybe Sorenson may fall victim.
“Katz beating Clatworthy to take Charlie Copeland’s old 4th SD seat.’
The negative ad does change up the game and Katz response was direct. But, I still think Clatworthy will squeak by!
No I am not flip-flopping! Just adjusting to events as they go! Clatworthy treated fair but the 4th is the one that has to live with him!
I don’t have a good sense of the Sorenson/Mackenzie race, but you could be right. Biden at the top helps all D’s but I think there is concern that people won’t make it all the way down the ballot.
I think the Katz/Clatworthy one is interesting… obviously the “blue wave” helps offset the registration advantage… but Copeland near the top also serves Clatworthy well (in theory). It’s going to be all about the GOTV there.
George wrote: but Copeland near the top also serves Clatworthy well (in theory)
In theory yes, but everytime Copeland exaggerates, an Angel votes for Katz. 😉
El Somnambulo rates the likelihood of Senate turnover as follows:
1. 10th-The peripatetic (‘She’s a nurse! She’s a professor! She’s a legislator! She’s a floor wax! She’s a dessert topping!’) Bethany Hall-Long will win this seat handily. THIS was the seat that was gerrymandered out from under Steve Amick. His margin was shrinking against less than top-shelf opposition the last 2 cycles, and tireless campaigner Hall-Long would’ve taken Amick out this time anyway. His stand-in, Jim Weldin, has no chance.
El Somnambulo believes that the only seat that will switch is in the 10th.
However, 4 other seats COULD switch, especially in a blue wave. In order:
2. 16th District: The registration #’s could be better, as D’s only have about a 400 or so edge. However, Harold Stafford is an engaging and smart candidate, a former Secretary of Labor. He is running against Gingrich acolyte Colin Bonini, whose chief claim to fame is that he votes against the budget every year. People on both sides of the aisle view Bonini as a figurative lightweight, although his girth is becoming Falstaffian. In a wave year, here is El Somnambulo’s Upset Special.
3. 17th District: Against any other candidate, including the retiring John Still, Brian Bushweller would be a prohibitive favorite, and he could well win. Over 4000 D registration edge; hard-working, if uninspiring, standardbearer. But former mayor Jim Hutchison is very popular in Dover and adjacent areas, and doesn’t seem to have generated much, if any, ill will. Bushweller will need low-information voters to win a statistical victory.
3. 4th District: Yes, Clatworthy is to the right of the R’s in his district, and yes, Katz is a superb candidate. But the numbers are real tough. This district was stocked with as many R’s as possible in order to make SD 5, currently held by the undistinguished Cathy Cloutier, into a competitive district. An upset is possible, but R’s tend to vote R down ballot, no matter what. And they’re gonna want to win SOMETHING this time around.
5. Despite admirable progressive credentials, Jim McKenzie is not likely to win this seat. Both he and Sorenson are strong in the university area of Newark, so his advantage with progressives is muted against a moderate like Sorenson. Any enmity left over from the Terranova forces in the Pike Creek area will likely not serve him well. Hockessin is Sorenson Country. An upset is not impossible in a Blue Wave, but El Somnambulo sees this as the least likely upset on the list.
least likely = Biggest! So you agree with me on the 1 and 2 biggest.
I agree with you on Bethany Hall-Long. It would be an upset if the R won.
We only part ways on Brian Bushweller.
“Hutch” might not have pissed people off – but he liked being Mayor when the job was to play golf with business men. He seems like a ballot spot filler. A good ballot spot filler – but a ballot spot filler just the same.
Also, can you write my “House Upset Watch” post for me?
Thanks!!
Barbieri Beats Spence. Book it, Danno!
BTW, it’s John Mackenzie, not Jim.
The 6th district is predominantly Newark, with a little Hockessin, and little if any Pike Creek. Liane lives at the northern fringe. This is a real benefit to Newarker Mackenzie, who lives in the heart of the district.
Liane is certainly a moderate, and has no enemies. The question most ask is why she is an R in the first place.
Mackenzie knocked on a zillion doors for the primary, and his name recognition is not bad (due to events tied to his kids, his UD work, and his Christina School District board work). While the CSD work could work against him, this was not the case in the primary.
My take (I live in the 6th) is that this will depend on the Obama coattails–downticket factor. John has done what he can with a mortal budget against Liane’s much larger treasury. John won against similar odds in the primary.
JIM Hutchison, JOHN MacKenzie. Repeat after El Somnambulo…
Senor Baumbach may be right. But Sorenson works, or at least used to work, at the University of Delaware, and she’s popular w/the Jim Soles crowd. So she’s well-known in Newark.
McKenzie is working hard, though,
and deserves the support of Democratic progressives.
Look, I can’t stand MacKenzie, he screwed up the School Board for the Christina School District and the only reason he beat Terranova (BY 65 VOTES, by no means a LARGE margin) is because of Jack. That aside, the 6th Senate District does not encompass Pike Creek. It is Hockessin, White Clay Creek State Park and Newark…
I’m in Pike Creek and I’d move if I thought this man had a shot to represent me… PC is repped by Senator Sokola (mostly).
I know it’s minor who cares detail, but I’m a PC’er and we’re extra sensitive to our boundaries! 😉 (and I’m extra sensitive to JM not beating Sorenson, as bad as her record on womens’ issues is!)
Thanks for letting me rant!
What are the bounderies? Both sides of Limestone Rd from Milltown Rd. to Brackenville Rd?
Jason –
Can’t wait to read your House predictions tomorrow.
I’m mainly interested in seeing how many names you can mess up. 😉
Secondarily, I’ll be awaiting with bated breath your cogent analysis of politics below the canal that does not use the terms “rednecks,” “hicks,” “stupid,” “Atkins” or “drunk.”
Funy you suld axe. I just wrote it and I can report zero mentions of renecks, hicks, stupid, atkins or drunk.
This an excerpt from Politics By The Numbers on 9-12-2008 and I think it still holds true:
“1734 of the 2629 votes cast on Sept 9, 2008 came out of the 23rd , but McKenzie will need more even distribution of votes to win in the general election against Republican incumbent, Liane Sorenson. In 2002, Representative Rick DiLiberto attempted to unseat Sorenson . He lost the Election Districts in the 23rd Rep District by only 72 votes, but lost 5611-4600, meaning he lost the rest of the district by over 900 votes.
Unless McKenzie runs extremely well in the 23rd District and loses by a closer margin than DiLiberto in the remainder of the senate district, I don’t think he has cause for optimism for victory.
Since he got a later start and was outspent significantly (Terranova raised over $50,000. McKenzie raised about $4000 and loaned his campaign another $7000), I think he must have made up some lost ground through local name recognition from his involvement on the Christina School Board and other local activities.
To have a decent shot in November I think McKenzie will need to expand that voter contact into the Hockessin-North Star portion of the district and persuade a lot of Independent voters to back him in this district where Democrats hold a small registration edge over Republicans (8,267 to 7,580) ,but where Independents could easily be the deciding factor since there are over 5000 of them.”
[I think it is worth noting that DiLiberto had served 10 years in the General Assembly prior to this loss and spent over $100.000 in the 2002 campaign.]
John,
That’s some pretty cogent analysis. I guess it makes MacKenzie’s an even bigger upset if it happens.
I’d love to be able to predict an upset in the 21st, but… uhm…. oh. Just a DINO.