The 62 District Strategy was a success in 2008, resulting in Democrats taking back the House and increasing their majority in the Senate. In 2004 in the Senate, we did not challenge Charlie Copeland or Liane Sorenson for their reelections. In 2006, we left Dori Connor coast to reelection without an opponent. In 2008, we ran candidates in all 10 Senate races and picked up 3 seats. Comparitively, in the House, in 2004, we left 11 Republicans unaccountable to the public (Lavelle (11), Spence (18), Roy (20), Miro (22), Oberle (24), Lofink (27), Wagner (31), Caulk (33), Buckworth (34), Ewing (35), and Lee (40). And then in 2006 we left 8 Republican seats unopposed (Maier (21), Miro again (22), Oberle again (24), Thornburg (29), Stone (32), Ewing again (35), Booth (37) and Lee again (40)). In 2008, we let 4 Republicans (Hudson (12), Manolakos (20), Outten (30) and Carey (36)) coast to victory, an definite improvement in recruiting over 2004 and 2006.
The premise is simple: never allow an office holder to be unopposed for reelection, for that is undemocratic and unDemocratic. The people should always be given a choice, and Democrats cannot make inroads into conservative areas without actually making an effort. As I said someone famous once sid, half of life is just showing up. And in politics, it is three-fourths. Thus, it is maddening whenever we fail as Democrats to contest a district seat.
But it is understandable why candidates are left unopposed: because sometimes finding candidates in districts in hard, especially when an incumbent is long established and has a substantial fundraising advantage, and especially when a certain district’s demographics favor conservatives or Republicans, for that simply means that aren’t many Democrats to chose from for a candidate.
And as we enter a difficult year for Democrats politically, there may be a tendency to conserve resources to protect vulnerabilities, thus in 2010 we could see us return to allowing 11 or more Republicans get off scott free. But to me that feels like we are turning the ball over at the 30 yard line on second down, and I am not talking about a fumble or an interception. I am talking about purposefully giving the ball to the opposing team because we don’t feel like playing offense this year. Makes me puke.
As we enter 2010, 11 Senate races are up, as well as the entire House. I am posting this now so we can begin recruiting, and so we can see which races could and will be competitive. The filing deadline is July 30, so we have time, but good campaigns take a lot of time.
THE SENATE
Democrats have a 15 to 6 majority. Republicans would have to net five seats to garner the 11 seats needed for a majority. Democrats are defending 8 of the 11 seats up for election this time around. The three Republicans running are Dori Connor, Joe Booth (who was elected in a special last year to replace the deceased Thurman Adams), and Cathy Cloutier. There is also a possible special election on the horizon if Colin Bonini actually runs and wins the State Treasurer race.
(1) HARRIS MCDOWELL III
Safe Democratic. McDowell’s only danger is if we Democrats ever decide to primary his ass. We had rumors early last year that Charles Potter was going to primary him. ‘Bulo and I prefer Tom Noyes aka Tommywonk. Either way, this is a Democratic seat.
(5) CATHY CLOUTIER
Tossup. This is one of ‘Bulo’s top targets in 2010. I will let him speak:
Cathy Cloutier has served for 12 years in the Delaware General Assembly, first filling out the remainder of her late husband Phil Cloutier’s 1997-98 House term, being reelected to the House in 1998, and then winning the Brandywine Hundred seat of retiring State Sen. Myrna Bair in 2000. Virtually nobody begrudged giving Cloutier the chance to succeed Phil, who was the kind of non-partisan citizen-legislator who can only be found in the Newark area (Liane Sorenson/Terry Schooley) anymore, and who died far too young. […]
[Twelve] years into her political career, Cathy Cloutier is still a deer in the headlights[, with zero legislative accomplishments to her name]. […]
The latest registration figures show the district with 12,133 D’s, 9414 R’s, and 6505 I’s. And, if anything, the I’s are trending more D than R in this district now, a distinct change from the way things were right after reapportionment. The numbers get more daunting for the R’s by the month, and the number of people who remember Phil Cloutier drop every month. By the 2010 election, the registration plurality of D’s over R’s should be well over 3000. The registration margin when Cloutier last ran in 2006 was roughly 1500.
By now, the Democratic tilt in Brandywine Hundred has been well-documented, with Bryon Short, Dennis E. Williams, and Mike Katz winning long-time Rethug strongholds. Unknown, underfunded, but energetic Pat Morrison almost unseated Cloutier in 2006. First-time candidate Morrison got 47.4% of the vote, and would have won if suddenly-chivalrous union leaders had not fallen for Cloutier’s Damsel in Distress act. Unfortunately, Pat will not be able to run in 2010. If she did, she would win.
Cloutier only won with 52% in 2006. Is Bryon Short ready to move up? [Update]: Bulo is bullish on this race, and says in the comments below that any credible Dem other than Short can win this race. I am not so sure, but we will see.
(7) PATTY BLEVINS
Safe Democratic. The new Majority Leader won with 73%.
(8) DAVID SOKOLA
Lean Democratic. I only say that because Sokola won with 57% in 2006, over now Representative Mike Ramone.
(9) KAREN PETERSON
Safe Democratic. The Progressive champion was unopposed in 2006.
(12) DORI CONNOR
Safe Republican. Connor was unopposed in 2006 and is in good with the unions. She ain’t goin anywhere unless State Rep. Valerie Longhurst runs.
(13) DAVID McBRIDE
Safe Democratic. Same with McBride. [Update]: As pointed out below in the comments, McBride is vulnerable to a credible primary challenge since rumor has it he no longer even lives in the district.
(14) BRUCE ENNIS
Lean Democratic. Ennis seems well suited for his district, but this will be his first race for reelection.
(15) NANCY COOK
Safe Democratic. Cook was unopposed last time.
(19) JOE BOOTH
Lean Republican. Booth won the special election to replace Thurman Adams last year with 63% of the vote. That is an impressive margin and probably a correct one for his district. I only consider this a “lean” race rather than a safe one because this will be Booth’s first run for reelection in a general election, so it may be more competitive. But not likely.
(20) GEORGE BUNTING
Safe Democratic. That is, if Bunting runs for reelection. He has had health issues recently that may make that a question. Republican County Councilman George Cole would make this race a tossup to “lean Republican” if Bunting retires.
In the Senate this year, I do not see any Senator running for reelection losing. The only competitive race I see is against Cathy Cloutier, and I think she will hold on because I do not see Bryon Short running. He is needed more in the House, as you will see below….
THE HOUSE
The Democrats have a 24-17 majority. The GOP would need to win 4 seats (3 if they get Atkins to rejoin their caucus and run as a Republican) to gain back the majority. However, the GOP’s hopes are so far hampered by three retirements of Carey, Oberle and Thornburg, two of which (Oberle and Thornburg) are in Democratic leaning districts where the incumbent Republican barely won in 2008.
(1) DENNIS P. WILLIAMS
Safe Democratic. Williams won with 91% in 2008.
(2) HAZEL PLANT
Safe Democratic. Reelected with 94% of the vote in 2008. [Update]: Bulo thinks retirement is a possibility here given her recent health issues. Either way though, it is a safe Dem seat.
(3) HELENE KEELEY
Safe Democratic. Keeley was unopposed in 2008.
(4) GERALD BRADY
Safe Democratic. Brady won with 73% of the vote against Tyler Nixon last time.
(5) MELANIE GEORGE MARSHALL
Safe Democratic. Marshall was unopposed last time.
(6) TOM KOVACH
Tossup. Kovach won the special election last December against Mike Migliore with 51%, or by 73 votes. This will be a very competitive race as the 6th District is a strong Democratic district, and Kovach only won because Democrats were unmotivated to vote. To show you how Democratic this district is, 46% of the voters are Democrats, while only 29% are Republicans. But Tom Kovach may be the type of Republican to hold it, as he has been voting moderate so far. And then there is also a possibility that Kovach runs for Congress, and if that is the case, this seat will go back to the Democrats.
(7) BRYON SHORT
Lean Democratic. Short won the seat in a special election in 2007. He won reelection with 59% of the vote. But until he gets another landslide under his belt in this swing district, I cannot consider it safe.
(8) QUINTON JOHNSON
Safe Democratic. Johnson won reelection with 57% [Update]: Bulo thinks this could be a vulnerable seat in an Republican year. I would have to know who the Republican is before I change my ranking.
(9) RICHARD CATHCART
Lean Republican. Cathcart keeps holding on, surviving two Democratic wave years with just over 50% of the vote. I am not taking the bait this time, but ‘Bulo thinks Cathcart remains vulnerable to candidate not named Rebecca Walker. [Update]: Geek says below in the comments that Ms. Walker is running again and is optimistic on her chances. We will see. I am of the mindset that if you couldn’t get it done in two Democratic wave elections you will not get it down in a favorable Republican year.
(10) DENNIS E. WILLIAMS
Tossup. The other Dennis Williams barely won with 50.4% over longtime Bob Valihura. Will Valihura seek a rematch to reclaim his seat?
(11) GREG LAVELLE
Lean Republican. Lavelle won reelection with 63% of the vote in 2008. He won with 58% in 2006. He is tightening his hold on the district. The only way this race because competitive is if Lavelle runs for Congress, which is a possibility. Read ‘Bulo’s analysis of our prospects against Lavelle here. He is more optimistic than I.
(12) DEBORAH HUDSON
Safe Republican. She has been unopposed three times in the last 10 years, all the way back to when she was a Capano. When she is challenged, she gets over 60% of the vote.
(13) JOHN MITCHELL
Safe Democratic. Mitchell was unopposed last year, just like his predecessor Van Sant was unopposed whenever he ran for reelection.
(14) PETER SCHWARTZKOPF
Safe Democratic. The Majority Leader was unopposed.
(15) VALERIE LONGHURST
Safe Democratic. Longhurst was unopposed in 2008.
(16) JAMES JOHNSON
Safe Democratic. Johnson was unopposed in 2008 too. Yeah, the GOP has their own problems with a 62 District Strategy. But I don’t care about that.
(17) MICHAEL MULROONEY
Safe Democratic. Mulrooney won reelection last time with 83%.
(18) MICHAEL BARBIERI
Tossup. Barbieri defeated Republican Speaker Terry Spence on his second attempt in 2008, so the GOP will want some revenge. Barbieri garnered 52% in 08, so this race will be competitive. [Update]: Bulo is more optimistic than I at the chances Barbieri can keep this seat. I guess it will have to depend on who the GOP runs.
(19) BOB GILLIGAN
Lean Democratic. Speaker Gilligan won with 78%, but you would think the GOP will be gunning for him like we went after Spence and Cathcart over the last four years.
(20) NICK MANOLAKOS
Safe Republican. Manolakos was not challenged by the Democratic Party last time, but instead by the Blue Enigma Party. That’s embarrassing. Needless to say Manolakos coasted to reelection.
(21) MICHAEL RAMONE
Tossup. Read ‘Bulo’s fine analysis here. If we find a credible candidate without the drama and indecision of the Creedon campaign in 2008, we can win this back, given the district’s demographics and history.
(22) JOSEPH MIRO
Safe Republican. Miro won reelection with 66% of the vote. [Update]: Paul in the comments says there is a candidate preparing to run (he didn’t mention a name) that will have more time and money this time than our own beloved Rebecca Young had in her race last time. I hope so.
(23) TERRY SCHOOLEY
Safe Democratic. Schooley won with 75% last time.
(24) BILL OBERLE, JR.
Leans Democratic. Yeah, ‘Bulo called it. Oberle represented this district for years as the last of the great Northeastern liberal Republicans. When was the last time you heard a Republican be pro-labor and pro-gay rights? He had to be, as his district tilts heavily Democratic, as voter registration rolls show there are 6,597 Democrats, 2,993 Republicans and 3,175 registered in other parties or no party at all. Now that Oberle is retiring, I have to favor the Democrat is this race at the outset. It is the Democratic Party’s strongest chance for a pickup this year. [Update]: Paul also says there is a Democratic candidate preparing HER run. I wonder who it is?
(25) JOHN KOWALKO
Safe Democratic. Progressive Champion and Delaware Liberal commenter John Kowalko won reelection with 73% of the vote in 2008.
(26) JOHN VIOLA
Safe Democratic. Viola won with 80% of the vote last time.
(27) EARL JAQUES
Tossup. Jaques lost to Lofink by 60 votes in 2006. In 2008, Jaques won by 46, if you combine Lofink’s two ballot positions (he was the candidate for both the Republican and Working Families Party). Lofink is not running again. I think Jaques will be able to retain the seat, especially now that Lofink is gone, but you still have to think this is a tossup given the close elections over the last four year.s
(28) BILL CARSON
Safe Democratic. Carson was unopposed last time.
(29) PAM THORNBURG
Tossup. Thornburg is retiring. She says it is because she is to be the Administrator of the Delaware Farm Bureau. I think it is because she barely won reelection with 50.2% of the vote, after a recount of absentee ballots gave her the victory. This district has a more even voter registration, with 7,192 registered as Democrats, 5,687 as Republicans and 4,302 as other. Republican Lincoln Willis has declared. Former Mayor of Wyoming Hans Riegle (R) is also running, setting up a “Resolute Determination” v. “Delaware Politics” primary. ’08 Democratic nominee Charles “Trey” Paradee and a number of other Democrats are considering the race as well. Read Bulo’s analysis here.
(30) WILLIAM OUTTEN
Safe Republican. Outten was unopposed in 08.
(31) DARRYL SCOTT
Lean Democratic. Scott forcibly retired double dipper Nancy Wagner in 2008, winning with 53% of the vote. Nancy Wagner is avoiding a rematch and is instead running for Dover Mayor. [Update]: Bulo thinks this should be a tossup in a favorable Republican year. Again, I will have to see who the GOP runs.
(32) BRAD BENNETT
Lean Democratic. With all our rookies, you have to say that their first race for reelection is a competitive one, especially if they represent a competitive or conservative district. According to the latest voter registration totals, there are 5,469 Democrats, 3,365 Republicans and 3,064 Others. Bennett won last time with 57%.
(33) ROBERT WALLS
Lean Democratic. Walls was first elected in 2006, and he was reelected with 54%, which would point to a competitive race this time around. [Update]: Bulo rates this a tossup, and it could be depending on who the GOP runs.
(34) DONALD BLAKEY
Safe Republican. Blakely won with 61% last time.
(35) DAVE WILSON
Lean Republican. I only say “lean” because this is Wilson’s first campaign for reelection. He was elected with 61%, so he should be safe.
(36) GEORGE CAREY
Lean Republican. Carey is retiring, but given the nature of this district in what will be a Republican year, you have to say this seat favors whatever Republican runs. The district lies along the Delaware Bay on the eastern side of Sussex County. It reaches from Milford to Route 9, and Route 113 serves as its western boundary. Voter rolls say there are 6,940 Democrats, 5,899 Republicans and 3,932 others. 36th District Committee Chairman Emory West says state archivist Russ McCabe (D) and former Sussex County Councilman Lynn Rogers (d) are considering running. The committee is meeting this month to discuss possible candidates.
I have not heard anything about a Republican running. Dave Burris decided against a run, shockingly enough. But still, given the demographics, history and nature of the 2010 election, you have to favor the Republican here. But we will see.
(37) RUTH BRIGGS KING
Tossup. King just won election last year in the special to replace Booth, who won election in his own right to replace Thurman Adams. She won with 53%. Just like Short up north, you have to consider a close race in a special to be a competitive one in the general, especially with even registration numbers (5,584 D, 5,295 R, 3,111 O). I haven’t heard if Robinson will seek a rematch.
(38) GERALD HOCKER
Safe Republican. I see sign on the way to my parent’s house that says Hocker for Governor. I wonder…. Needless to say, Hocker is safe (he won with 72%) until he runs for Governor, then he will be toast.
(39) DANIEL SHORT
Safe Republican. Short won with 69% last time.
(40) BIFF LEE
Lean Republican. After finally being challenged after 2 elections of running unopposed, Lee won with 59%. I don’t know about you, but that seems low to me. [Update]: And an anon commenter says Barb Hudson (D) is back for more this time.
(41) JOHN ATKINS
Safe Republican. I guarantee you Atkins is going back to the GOP, and he will win reelection.
So, I see a net gain of 2 seats (including the Atkins party switch) for the Republicans at this point, not enough to win back the majority, but enough to make it close at 22-19. Of the tossups, Democrats are defending Jaques (27th), Williams (10th) and Barbieri (18th), while Republicans are defending the open seats in the 24th and the 29th, as well as King (37th), Ramone (21st), and Kovach (6th). I think all three of the latter retain their seats, and Democrats will win the 24th and the Republicans will retain the 29th. Republicans will gain two seats in defeating Dennis E. Williams and Michael Barbieri, if I had to guess today. Jaques will win reelection in the 27th, this time by a more comfortable margin.
