Wednesday Open Thread
Welcome to your Wednesday open thread. So, I’m starting to hear rumors that we have a big cold spell coming. I hope the prognosticators are wrong about this! Where are our weather nerds when we need them?
I’m not a huge fan of early polling. I think it usually tests name recognition. However, PPP Polling released some early poll numbers for the Republican 2012 presidential contest. The field so far is fairly weak, but Huckabee is the best bet so far.
So the GOP’s going to be best served by a fresh face. Still the odds are better than not for now that one of these folks will be the Republican nominee- and if it is one of them there’s no doubt in my mind that the best one for the GOP’s prospects next year would be Mike Huckabee.
Why Huckabee’s better than Gingrich and Palin. You could answer this question in one simple word: electability. In nine swing states where we’ve polled since November (Virginia, Montana, North Carolina, Missouri, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida) Huckabee has trailed Obama by an average of 2 points. In those same places Gingrich has trailed by an average of 7 points and Palin by an average of 11 points. Huckabee is massively more viable in a general election than these two. That’s at least partially because he has the most appeal to Democrats of the Republican front runners.
Why Huckabee’s better than Romney. Romney has actually done a little better than Huckabee in these early swing state polls, trailing Obama by an average of just 1 point. In addition Romney has shown the most appeal to independents so far of the top Republicans. There’s a large difference in how much enthusiasm there is for Huckabee and Romney with the GOP base though. 73% of conservative Republicans have a favorable opinion of Huckabee, putting him just behind Palin’s 77%, and well ahead of Romney’s 58%. For all the hand wringing of the last two years you better believe Democrats are going to be excited about going out to reelect Barack Obama in 2012. Republicans need to be able to match that and they’re going to need a candidate they’re enthusiastic about to make that happen- for now Huckabee fits the bill on that front and Romney doesn’t.
Huckabee’s the only one of the top Republicans who has the combination of electability and base appeal it’s going to take to beat Barack Obama. Romney has the electability but not the base appeal, Palin has the base appeal but not the electability, and Gingrich sort of falls in the middle on both counts. A lot will change over the course of 2011 but at least based on the information we have so far Huckabee looks like the GOP’s best bet.
PPP doesn’t think any of the candidates are particularly strong. Huckabee is probably the most likable of the GOP candidates. He has real problems and he’ll have to get around his Wayne Dumond pardon. I think watching the GOP candidates annihilate each other will be a spectator sport.
This is an odd story. Rightwing funder David Koch was booed at a Swan Lake performance that he sponsored.
Koch, who has professed his devotion to “The Nutcracker” ballet performance by Alexei Ratmansky, made a matching grant of $2.5 million so that it could go on this season. At a special opening of the performance at the Brooklyn Academy of Music shortly before Christmas, Koch made an appearance to talk about his donation. The Financial Times’ John Gapper was in the audience and witnessed a crowd of “harried Brooklyn moms and salivating balletomanes” erupting in boos at the sight of the Tea Party billionaire:
The excitement started even before the show when David H. Koch, the co-owner of Koch Industries, the largest privately-own industrial conglomerate in the US, came out on stage to talk about his $2.5m sponsorship of the production. Most people applauded but there were also boos from near where I sat in the balcony, followed by an angry debate in the row in front of me, with one of the booers declaring “he’s an evil man” and a couple next to her telling her to “shut up” and to leave the theatre. […] Once Mr Koch had left the stage, the booing stopped and the ballet started.
I think this is incredibly rude. I do find it interesting that the Koch brothers are getting well-known enough to get this sort of reaction. They’ve been funding the rightwing noise machine for decades (they were funders of the “Arkansas Project”).
Tags: Open Thread
So, for all (both) of you who think it is impossible for one to support Israel’s right to exist and defend itself, AND also criticize them when they act wrongly….
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110105/wl_nm/us_palestinians_israel_wikileaks
This is the type of shit that causes suicide bombers to decide to blow up a school bus. Yes, more money in Gaza means more money for Hamas, but Israel needs to fight HAMAS. Not the people of Gaza. Israel, like america, has a cancerous conservative movement that would gladly commit genocide on muslims. A couple things however need to be understood. 1) most Israelis dont share the war-hawk motives of BB and his coalition. 2, Israel is under a much bigger threat than America (an actual one). If ONE Hamas fired rocket hit American soil, it would be 9/11 part 2 (18/22). Rockets land in Israel all the time and they are forced ot justify defending themselves. It is hard enough the nonamerican media is biased against them… then they go and do something like this.
I say put Hamas and the Likud/Hassids in a very small red-painted room and lock the door..
So, I’m starting to hear rumors that we have a big cold spell coming. I hope the prognosticators are wrong about this! Where are our weather nerds when we need them?
You called? 😛
Maybe the middle of next week and after for us…maybe. “Maybe” is weather terminology!!!
Anyway, there is a polar index known as the Arctic Oscillation (the AO index). When it goes negative, the basic rule is to think of Arctic air being able to drop down from the poles. Oddly, the air at the poles is displaced with relatively-milder air, go figure. There are other factors in play that would allow/prohibit this air, but this is a very generalized approach to understanding it. The AO is negative now, but it is forecasted to seriously tank soon and possibly to record levels at that. The mid-west will see the brunt of this. It should modify somewhat by the time it gets to our area, but that’s all relative. Some outlets in their extended-long-term (the additional 4-5 days AFTER the 5-day forecast) are sticking with highs in the low-30’s, but quite a few models are showing 10-15 degrees colder than that right now. BTW, for us, low-30’s for a high is cold, but it’s not news-worthy. It drives me insane that they lead-in with how frigid it’s going to get, then put 30’s on the board. GAAAH!!!
It’s not apocolyptic, bird-and-fish killing get-Kirk-Cameron-on-AC360 kinda cold, but for our area, it’s still freaking cold-as-shnizzit. I do feel confident in saying that when this air mass hits the CONUS (Cont. US), there will be fluff news scenes from MN/WI/ND/etc where they throw a fresh-poured hot cup of coffee into the air and it freezes before it hits the ground.
Yeah, your teeth will chatter if the current pattern isn’t disrupted. It’s still a LONG ways off, though, in the weather world.
Some kossack had the bright idea, which has occurred to me before:
Then came the obvious comment:
Rude yes. But those fuckers need to be booed. At times rudeness is the correct response.
I think this is incredibly rude.
I find it deeply satisfying. It needs to be repeated all over the country. A respectful silence would be validation.
They weren’t booing, they were saying “Koch.”
why is it rude to boo them? The do FAR worse to the people of this country, and since we cant vote them out of power… or even effectively boycott them, telling them inpublic to their bloated pale face exactly what we think of them is our only recourse…
TRUST me, they would boo you if they could… then would throw a hissy fit that white men arent allowed their freedom of speech
I actually enjoyed reading that they were booed. If I had been in the audience, I would have been throwing cat calls at them, calling them teabaggers.
All this talk about booing at the ballet made me look up the 1913 Paris premiere of Stravinsky’s Rite Of Spring, which degenerated into a riot. The audience was used to conventional music and dance like Swan Lake (which ironically was the ballet performed for the Koch booing), but was appalled by the unconventional dance moves and the discordant notes of The Rite Of Spring:
I had always known about this bit of history, but never really looked into it. I found this piece on YouTube, which is a recreation by the Joffrey Ballet of the original Nijinsky choreography and sets. I am not a ballet fan and know nothing about ballet, but WOW! What an awesome performance, modern even today. Check it out.
If you are more familiar with American musical theater, you can see how this performance led directly to Broadway shows like Oklahoma! and on through West Side Story.
Esquire Magazine gives us a slide show:
Introducing Your New Crooked Republican Leadership
A good start, since it is obviously not comprehensive.
Note that PDD, the Progressive Democrats for Delaware, meets tonight at 7pm at DelDems HQ. Top on the agenda is setting our legislative/policy priorities for 2011, and second on the agenda is discussing and perhaps adopting bylaws for PDD.
PDD’s Yahoo Group includes a copy of the bylaws draft.
Please join us tonight and be heard.
A copy of the fillibuster reform plan – http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/Rules%20Reform%20Resolution%201.5.11%5B7%5D.pdf
ooo, good reference anon. “Rite” is my favorite peice of music. I dont think anything musical work will ever draw that kind of reaction again.
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7215548n – how can one get a heart transplant when one has no heart to begin with?
No one wants to discuss the dire fiscal crisis of both NCC and the State transportation dept. reported in today’s WNJ and why they are intimately related?
I love you people.
Over on dKos, there is a worthy bit of satire on the true nature of some of COD’s campaign expenses.
My only wish for the new year is that somehow both Koch brothers “trip” and fall into a swine lake of pig excrement and drown.
That would be sublime.