9:19 PM PT: The first 15 precincts are in (mostly from Niagara Co.) and have Jane Corwin leading Kathy Hochul 44-43, with Jack Davis at 12 and Ian Murphy at 1.
9:23 PM PT: It’s early, of course, but these Niagara precincts gave John McCain about 58% of the vote in 2008 – yet Hochul is tied here.
9:26 PM PT: With 87 precincts in (out of 627), it’s 46-43-10 Hochul.
9:30 PM PT: About 18% of the vote’s been counted, and Hochul’s moved out to a 48-42 lead.
Erie County Democratic Chairman Len Lenihan is monitoring results at Hochul headquarters and said a few minutes ago he thinks the numbers will continue to come in slowly. By 11 p.m., he hopes to have a good handle on what’s going on. “Before that, we may have some ups and downs … stronger in some areas,” Lenihan told me. “Keep in mind, this is a tough district. A Democrat has never won this district.” That said, he added, “I think we’ve got a winner tonight.”
Nate Silver of 538 has called it for the Democrats. Republicans killing Medicare has just elected a Democrat in a district where no Democrat has ever won before. Congratulations GOP.
Just got out of a shelter-in-place drill here in Dallas for a tornado warning (and this place is largely glass and you should hear the hail) and while we were hitting refresh on our phones, one of us mentioned that Corwin got a court-order to stop certification of this vote. What’s up with that?
Cass… it was a preemptive move to allow for a recount should the race be close. It is not close. There will be no automatic recount, and Corwin now looks like an idiot.
Democrats are pretty united on this one, wizz. If they weren’t before, Hochul’s victory should help there. I have to add, with these numbers it looks like Hochul may have won without Davis in the race. Not all of his votes came from Republicans according to polls and Murphy was a spoiler in the race for Hochul.
First attempt at bludgeon from Debbie Wasserman Schultz:
“Tonight’s result has far-reaching consequences beyond New York,” she said. “It demonstrates that Republicans and Independent voters, along with Democrats, will reject extreme policies like ending Medicare that even Newt Gingrich called radical.”
The GOP spin is that it was the teabag that skewed it, but polling shows that he pulled D’s and R’s. Also, by election day Corwin was running ads saying that Hochul voted for the Republican Medicare abolishing budget. Crazy, I know. But she a Republican so outright lying is par for the course.
So they are using this to throw out the Tparty.
Really, Johnny Wah-mburger had no choice. Either they admit they lost because of Ryan’s horribly cruel and unnecessarily mean kill-medicare plot….. and anger the small-dicked (see south park) Tparty OR blame it on the Tparty candidate and anger the small-dicked Tparty.
We now have absolute proof that zealous party purists end up making it a lose-lose-lose -lose situation for their own cause.
Let me put it this way: If O’Donnell had run as a third party against Castle and Coons, I would have been her best friend. But that was then, this is now. Against Carper, she isn’t even a useful idiot.
The DE GOP bench is thinner than Paris Hilton after a month long Saint-Tropez coke binge. You really have to wonder who they are going to run in all of these statewide office races. The best case scenario for the DEGOP is if Sigler knows some people who have not been involved in politics (conventional or teabag), but would make good candidates. A new faces crop of people like Lawson who perhaps have a little of their own money and will not be embarrassments.
Polls don’t close until 9 pm.
Thanks for the info, DD
The Buffalo News will probably be the best site for the latest numbers.
http://www.buffalonews.com/
9:19 PM PT: The first 15 precincts are in (mostly from Niagara Co.) and have Jane Corwin leading Kathy Hochul 44-43, with Jack Davis at 12 and Ian Murphy at 1.
9:23 PM PT: It’s early, of course, but these Niagara precincts gave John McCain about 58% of the vote in 2008 – yet Hochul is tied here.
9:26 PM PT: With 87 precincts in (out of 627), it’s 46-43-10 Hochul.
9:30 PM PT: About 18% of the vote’s been counted, and Hochul’s moved out to a 48-42 lead.
48-42-9 (D-R-Tea Party) with 28% in.
If Davis “Naders” Corwin, do you think the GOP daddies will use it to put down the Tparty?
It stays the same with 33% in.
Corwin (R) 42%
16,033
Davis (Tea) 9%
3,369
Hochul (D) 48%
18,022
Murphy (G) 1%
408
It stays the same with 45% in.
Corwin (R) 42%
20,888
Davis (Tea) 8%
4,169
Hochul (D) 48%
23,744
Murphy (G) 1%
538
45% reporting
Ben… perhaps. But that assumes GOP officeholders are not scared to death of their teabagging base.
Erie County Democratic Chairman Len Lenihan is monitoring results at Hochul headquarters and said a few minutes ago he thinks the numbers will continue to come in slowly. By 11 p.m., he hopes to have a good handle on what’s going on. “Before that, we may have some ups and downs … stronger in some areas,” Lenihan told me. “Keep in mind, this is a tough district. A Democrat has never won this district.” That said, he added, “I think we’ve got a winner tonight.”
A little closer now. The Rethug gained a point.
Corwin (R) 43%
26,277
Davis (Tea) 8%
5,090
Hochul (D) 48%
29,063
Murphy (G) 1%
658
55% reporting
A little more closer now.
Corwin (R) 43%
26,758
Davis (Tea) 8%
5,188
Hochul (D) 47%
29,517
Murphy (G) 1%
685
57% reporting
With 61%, some breathing room.
Corwin (R) 43%
28,387
Davis (Tea) 8%
5,528
Hochul (D) 48%
31,738
Murphy (G) 1%
723
61% reporting
Nate Silver of 538 has called it for the Democrats. Republicans killing Medicare has just elected a Democrat in a district where no Democrat has ever won before. Congratulations GOP.
Corwin (R) 43%
29,620
Davis (Tea) 8%
5,682
Hochul (D) 48%
33,607
Murphy (G) 1%
742
63% reporting
Corwin (R) 43%
30,772
Davis (Tea) 8%
5,946
Hochul (D) 48%
34,769
Murphy (G) 1%
792
66% reporting
Thanks for posting these DD.
Just got out of a shelter-in-place drill here in Dallas for a tornado warning (and this place is largely glass and you should hear the hail) and while we were hitting refresh on our phones, one of us mentioned that Corwin got a court-order to stop certification of this vote. What’s up with that?
Corwin (R) 42%
32,591
Davis (Tea) 8%
6,384
Hochul (D) 48%
37,157
Murphy (G) 1%
833
71% reporting
The AP calls the race for Democrat Kathy Hochul! Amazing win!
This will give Boehner something to cry over.
Cass… it was a preemptive move to allow for a recount should the race be close. It is not close. There will be no automatic recount, and Corwin now looks like an idiot.
Thanks, DD.
So Democrats have a bludgeon — wonder if they’ll use it?
Awesome. The tebagz strike again.
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let’s sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again
Way too soon but fun anyway.
Where is your 2010 mandate now, Repubs? LOL!
Thank you, Paul Ryan!
Comment by cassandra m So Democrats have a bludgeon — wonder if they’ll use it?
I still have faith that the Dems’ can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
What can I say i’m a Democrat.
Democrats are pretty united on this one, wizz. If they weren’t before, Hochul’s victory should help there. I have to add, with these numbers it looks like Hochul may have won without Davis in the race. Not all of his votes came from Republicans according to polls and Murphy was a spoiler in the race for Hochul.
First attempt at bludgeon from Debbie Wasserman Schultz:
“Tonight’s result has far-reaching consequences beyond New York,” she said. “It demonstrates that Republicans and Independent voters, along with Democrats, will reject extreme policies like ending Medicare that even Newt Gingrich called radical.”
Watching the teabag candidate peel off Republican voters made me think we’d better start being nicer to Ron Paul.
The GOP spin is that it was the teabag that skewed it, but polling shows that he pulled D’s and R’s. Also, by election day Corwin was running ads saying that Hochul voted for the Republican Medicare abolishing budget. Crazy, I know. But she a Republican so outright lying is par for the course.
Debbie is my favorite Wasserman Schultz.
So they are using this to throw out the Tparty.
Really, Johnny Wah-mburger had no choice. Either they admit they lost because of Ryan’s horribly cruel and unnecessarily mean kill-medicare plot….. and anger the small-dicked (see south park) Tparty OR blame it on the Tparty candidate and anger the small-dicked Tparty.
We now have absolute proof that zealous party purists end up making it a lose-lose-lose -lose situation for their own cause.
“Watching the teabag candidate peel off Republican voters made me think we’d better start being nicer to Ron Paul.”
Good idea. But are you gonna start being nicer to Christine O’Donnell?
Let me put it this way: If O’Donnell had run as a third party against Castle and Coons, I would have been her best friend. But that was then, this is now. Against Carper, she isn’t even a useful idiot.
The DE GOP bench is thinner than Paris Hilton after a month long Saint-Tropez coke binge. You really have to wonder who they are going to run in all of these statewide office races. The best case scenario for the DEGOP is if Sigler knows some people who have not been involved in politics (conventional or teabag), but would make good candidates. A new faces crop of people like Lawson who perhaps have a little of their own money and will not be embarrassments.