Polling and Electoral Map Update [5.2.12]

In some polls, President Obama's approval averages are above 50%, but in Gallup (which has been more bearish on Obama but not as bad as Rasmussen), his average has just reached 47%. This is an improvement over his term low of 41% reached during the debt ceiling hostage crisis last summer. The reason for the improvement is that the Independents have come home. Meanwhile, we move Virginia into lean Obama territory on our electoral map, while North Carolina moves into too close to call territory.