The YouGuv Polling Report, plus a Senate Forecast [9.22.12]

We have a TON of polls today, like yesterday, because of a polling outfit called YouGuv. Who are they? Here is Daily Kos Election’s description:

The firm is a British firm, that moved into the American market in 2007 when they bought out Polimetrix, a California-based firm that had done a lot of internet-based polling in 2006 in an arrangement with Stanford University. Their polling is based on internet samples, a method which some find problematic (some aggregators of polling, indeed, refuse to utilize their data). It is a methodology that I also confess to qualms about, because when you have a sample that is essentially volunteering to participate, and a smaller universe from which to draw from, the potential pitfalls are pretty self-evident.

However, the true measure is performance. […] YouGov … has earned at least a cycle’s worth of benefit of the doubt. Their 2010 track record was more than reasonable. Indeed, of the 18 pollsters that offered up a substantive number of polls, YouGov came in fourth place in terms of their accuracy (defined as the percentage of races where they came within three percent of the final margin).

Another new polling outfit that has performed a polling dump today is Purple Strategies. Some of their results are eye raising. They have Obama winning North Carolina but losing Florida, and yet within three of Romney in Arizona. I will bet you everything I own that there is no way that is possible. If Obama wins North Carolina, he is winning Florida too. And if he is making Arizona a swing state, then he is up ten in Florida and 5 in North Carolina. Then again, Purple Strategies has been more pro-Romney this cycle, and if Obama is making Arizona competitive, then maybe this race has just broken wide open…

NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL–American Research Group: Obama 49, Romney 47
NATIONAL–Angus Reid: Obama 48, Romney 46
NATIONAL–Gallup Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 47
NATIONAL–Ipsos-Reuters: Obama 48, Romney 42
NATIONAL–National Journal: Obama 50, Romney 43
NATIONAL–Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 46
NATIONAL–Reason/Rupe: Obama 52, Romney 45

STATE POLLS

ARIZONA–Purple Strategies: Romney 48, Obama 45
ARIZONA–YouGov: Romney 51, Obama 41

I wish I had a tiebreaker. But since I am going with the Purple Strategies poll in Florida and coloring FL pink for now, I will do the same in Arizona. Arizona is now Slim Romney.

CALIFORNIA–YouGuv: Obama 54, Romney 36 —Strong Obama
COLORADO–Purple Strategies: Obama 48, Romney 45—Slim Obama
CONNECTICUT–YouGov: Obama 53, Romney 39—Strong Obama
FLORIDA–Purple Strategies: Romney 48, Obama 47—Slim Romney
GEORGIA–YouGov: Romney 50, Obama 44—Lean Romney
ILLINOIS–YouGov: Obama 59, Romney 35—Strong Obama
INDIANA–YouGov: Romney 50, Obama 44—Lean Romney
MARYLAND–YouGov: Obama 58, Romney 36—Strong Obama
MASSACHUSETTS–YouGov: Obama 56, Romney 37—Strong Obama
MINNESOTA–YouGov: Obama 50, Romney 41—Lean Obama
MISSOURI–YouGov: Romney 49, Obama 43—Lean Romney
NEW JERSEY–YouGov: Obama 53, Romney 39—Strong Obama
NEW MEXICO–YouGov: Obama 53, Romney 41—Strong Obama
NEW YORK–YouGov: Obama 58, Romney 34—Strong Obama
NORTH CAROLINA–Purple Strategies: Obama 48, Romney 46—Slim Obama
OHIO–Purple Strategies: Obama 48, Romney 44—Slim Obama
PENNSYLVANIA–Rasmussen: Obama 51, Romney 39—Strong Obama
SOUTH DAKOTA–Nielson Brothers: Romney 54, Obama 39—Strong Romney
TENNESSEE–YouGov: Romney 49, Obama 42—Lean Romney
TEXAS–YouGov: Romney 52, Obama 41—Strong Romney
VIRGINIA–Purple Strategies: Obama 46, Romney 43—Slim Obama
WASHINGTON–YouGov: Obama 53, Romney 39—Strong Obama

SENATE POLLS

I’m starting a new feature here. I will be posting a chart showing how the Senate looks given the glut of polling we now have. The same rules apply. If a candidate is leading by 10 or more, than it is Strong Dem or Strong GOP. If he or she leads between 5 and 9.99 points, it is Lean Dem or Lean GOP. If the lead is between 0.01 and 4.99 points, the seat is considered Slim Dem or Slim GOP. The text color of the state name indicates who currently holds the seat (blue for Dem, red for GOP and green for Independent). If the state name is highlighted in yellow, then it is a pickup for the party, or a gain.

Right now, the current composition of the Senate is 53 Dems (including Joe Fuckin Lieberman and Bernie Sanders) and 47 Republicans. If the election were held today, according to the polls, the GOP will pick up Nebraska and Connecticut and the Dems would pick up Massachusetts and Maine (technically Angus King would be an Independent, but it is highly likely he will caucus with the Dems).

All other seats will be held by the current party holding them now.

Now, in my opinion, there is no way McMahon wins in Connecticut. I will bet money on it. So if the Dems win Connecticut, they will actually gain seats in the Senate.

ARIZONA–YouGov: Jeff Flake (R) 43, Richard Carmona (D) 37
CALIFORNIA–YouGov: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 52, Elizabeth Emken (R) 34
CONNECTICUT–YouGov: Linda McMahon (R) 45, Chris Murphy (D) 40
FLORIDA–Mason Dixon: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 48, Connie Mack IV (R) 40
INDIANA–YouGov: Richard Mourdock (R) 41, Joe Donnelly (D) 38
MARYLAND–YouGov: Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 50, Dan Bongino (R) 30
MASSACHUSETTS–YouGov: Elizabeth Warren (D) 44, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 43
MINNESOTA–YouGov: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 49, Kurt Bills (R) 34
MISSOURI–YouGov: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 45, Todd Akin (R) 38
NEW JERSEY–YouGov: Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 43, Joe Kyrillos (R) 29
NEW MEXICO–YouGov: Martin Heinrich (D) 50, Heather Wilson (R) 35
NEW YORK–YouGov: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 52, Wendy Long (R) 25
TENNESSEE–YouGov: Sen. Bob Corker (R) 49, Mark Clayton (D) 25
TEXAS–YouGov: Ted Cruz (R) 50, Paul Sadler (D) 31
WASHINGTON–YouGov: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 51, Michael Baumgartner (R) 37
WISCONSIN–Rasmussen: Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 46
WISCONSIN–PPP: Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 45

GOVERNOR POLLS
INDIANA–IN-GOV (YouGov): Mike Pence (R) 48, John Gregg (D) 33
MISSOURI–MO-GOV (YouGov): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 51, Dave Spence (R) 33
MONTANA–MT-GOV (Mason Dixon): Steve Bullock (D) 44, Rick Hill (R) 43
WASHINGTON–WA-GOV (YouGov): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 43