The Polling Report [9.25.12]
The cherry on the top of the sundae that was the 2008 election was Obama winning the 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska. Nebraska is one of two states (the other being Maine) that apportions its electoral votes by congressional district winner and state wide winner. The statewide winner gets 2 electoral votes, and then the winner of each of the three congressional districts in Nebraska get one electoral vote each. The 2nd Congressional District in Nebraska encompasses the Omaha area, one of the more Democratic areas of Nebraska, relatively speaking.
After the “embarrassment” of having a Democrat win a Nebraska electoral vote for the first time since 1964, Nebraska Republicans first attempted to pass legislation eliminating proportional representation, but that failed. Then through redistricting, they made the 2nd CD more Republican. But a new poll has been released showing a tie in the 2nd CD between Romney and Obama. Wouldn’t be something if Obama wins that Nebraska electoral vote again? Indeed, I consider it a canary in a coal mine: a sign of the coming Obama landslide.
NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL–Gallup Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 46
NATIONAL–Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 43
NATIONAL–Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 48
NATIONAL–UPI/CVoter: Obama 49, Romney 46
NATIONAL–Winston Group–R: Obama 48, Romney 46
STATE POLLS
FLORIDA–American Research Group: Obama 50, Romney 45—Lean Obama
IOWA–American Research Group: Obama 51, Romney 44—Lean Obama
MICHIGAN–Rasmussen: Obama 54, Romney 42–Strong Obama
NORTH CAROLINA–Civitas: Obama 49, Romney 45–Slim Obama
NEVADA–American Research Group: Obama 51, Romney 44–Lean Obama
WISCONSIN–We Ask America: Obama 53, Romney 41—Strong Obama
MINNESOTA–Mason Dixon: Obama 48, Romney 40, Johnson 5—Lean Obama
MONTANA–Mason Dixon: Romney 51, Obama 42, Johnson 2—Lean Romney
NEBRASKA–Omaha World-Herald: Romney 51, Obama 40—Strong Romney
NEBRASKA 2ND CD–Omaha World-Herald: Romney 44, Obama 44—Tied
PENNSYLVANIA–Mercyhurst University: Obama 48, Romney 40—Lean Obama
SENATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA–Field Poll: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 57, Elizabeth Emken (R) 31—Strong Dem
MONTANA–Mason Dixon: Denny Rehberg (R) 48, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 45, Dan Cox (L) 1—Slim GOP
NEBRASKA–Omaha World-Herald: Deb Fischer (R) 56, Bob Kerrey (D) 40 (LV); Deb Fischer (R) 52, Bob Kerrey (D) 42 (RV)—Strong GOP
OHIO–Ohio Newspaper Group: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 52, Josh Mandel (R) 45—Lean Dem
PENNSYLVANIA–Mercyhurst University: Sen. Bob Casey (D) 43, Tom Smith (R) 29—Strong Dem
WISCONSIN–We Ask America–R: Tammy Baldwin (D) 52, Tommy Thompson (R) 40—Strong Dem
I’m still very nervous because the Wisconsin recall situation looms large in my mind.
Pouring in billions in untraceable street money into key districts. Voter suppression. Election day dirty tricks. Outright fraud. Jury nullification through the Supreme Court. The Republicans have said that they will use all of those tools to win.