Archive for October, 2012
Tuesday Open Thread [10.2.12]
“Heading into tomorrow night’s first presidential debate, both President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney have two big vulnerabilities that his opponent can exploit. And it’s safe to say that whichever candidate better addresses his vulnerabilities will have more success in Wednesday’s debate.”
“For Obama, one of his vulnerabilities is that he hasn’t fully described what a second term would look like… For Mitt Romney, a big vulnerability is that he hasn’t differentiated his economic policies from George W. Bush’s.”
This is a rather tired media narrative and Republican talking point: that Obama has not told us what he will do in a second term. Only illiterates and the stupid can possibly say that. He is going to continue to do the things the Republicans continue to block: the passage of the American Jobs Act, the repeal of the tax cuts for the wealthy, the Dream Act, Immigration Reform, implementation and improvement of Obamacare, ending the war in Afghanistan, and investing in new energies (solar, wind) and high speed rail, internet and highway infrastructure. I mean, did these people (idiots like Chuck Todd) not watch his convention speech?
The Polling Report [10.2.12]
Romney, by the way, has had a bounce back on Intrade, up from around 21 percent chance to 26 percent. Nate Silver’s now-cast has Romney with a 2.2 percent chance; and his forecast for November gives him a 14 percent chance.
I didn’t expect it to break this way – but it has, because of the arguments of both sides. Campaigns matter. The candidate matters. And the moment matters. It’s an alchemy democracy; and it still holds the potential for surprise.
I did expect it to break this way. As did Booman, who is now seeing the beginnings of a blowout.
Here is our map:
Breaking: No IDs Required to Vote in Pennsylvania
This just in, and it is good news for the good guys — the lower courts judge who was required to review an earlier decision has made his ruling, mostly leaving the law in place, but noting that if you show up to vote and have no ID, you are allowed to vote. There’s more to come, I’m sure, but this seems to be the nut of it:
Predict the Post Debate Media Narrative!
As Robert Wright notes in his Atlantic article, The Coming Romney Comeback Narrative, the media doesn’t much like a static political narrative. It is the unfortunate byproduct of the horse race reporting they are fond of and the need to capture eyeballs. Wright posits multiple paths that the media narrative may go after tomorrow’s debate (although it is worth it to read his entire article), but jump in the comments to make your own prediction of the new drama the media will be working on after tomorrow’s Presidential Debate.
![Tuesday Daily Delawhere [10.2.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8318/8039352077_98c01146b8_z.jpg "Tuesday Daily Delawhere [10.2.12]")
The Internet Changed Everything
Max Frankel, a former editorial page editor, wrote a wonderful piece about Arthur Ochs Sulzberger, the New York Times publisher who recently passed away. The article talks how Sulzberger “never ordered an article to be printed or deleted from the news columns of his paper.” One of the most interesting tidbits in the article was […]
Late Night Video — Romney’s Business Experience Is Not About Creating Jobs
On the eve of the debates, the Obama Truth Team reminds us what Romney’s “business experience” has wrought on American families:
It Begins…
Former Georgetown Mayor Brian Pettyjohn, a Republican, has filed as a write-in candidate for the 19th Senate seat. Far Right radical religious conservative teabagger Eric Bodenweiser won the Republican primary against the incumbent Republican Senator Joe Booth. The Democratic nominee is Jane Hovington.
Today was the deadline for write in candidacies to be filed.
Monday Open Thread [10.1.12]
After examining all presidential polls since 1972, Nate Silver explains:
“Data suggest that polling in presidential elections has no history of partisan bias, at least not on a consistent basis. There have been years, like 1980 and 1994, when the polls did underestimate the standing of Republicans. But there have been others, like 2000 and 2006, when they underestimated the standing of Democrats…In all but three years, the partisan bias in the polls was small, with the polling average coming within 1.5 percentage points of the actual result. (I use the term “bias” in a statistical sense, meaning simply that the results tended to miss toward one direction.)”
So Nate Silver had to take time out of his weekend because some right winger babies cannot handle reality? Seriously, if every radical right wing conservative disappeared tomorrow, can you imagine how much better our society would be, instantly?
Romney Relying On… Zingers?
First, I have trouble envisioning Mitt Romney delivering a zinger. Zingers work when they flow naturally. Zingers work when your opponent plays the straight man/woman and gives you the opening. They do not work when forced. They do not work when you look for, or make-up, an excuse to use them. And zingers alone won’t […]
QOTD — Early Voting for Delaware?
There’s two kinds of early voting — absentee ballots and the in-person voting (but with limited venues open). Delaware only lets you vote absentee — and even then you need to sign an affidavit with an “excuse” for not being available on Election Day. But if you are following the news, then you know that in-person early voting is starting to ramp up. Should Delaware change its rules for early voting?
The Polling Report
We have some new state polls out of Iowa, Ohio, Arizona and North Carolina, as well as some interesting national polls. But the race basically remains as it has for weeks since the conventions: Obama is winning.
![Monday Daily Delawhere [10.1.12]](http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8178/8021593934_bcee3a32b4_z.jpg "Monday Daily Delawhere [10.1.12]")
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