Trump nomination lock moves futures markets in Dems direction
It is a long way to November, but for now investors are not liking the GOP’s prospects. While it seems clear that 30 – 35% of Republican primary voters like Trump, whether he can convert voters outside of the Fox News bubble is debatable.
Does Trump break the O’Donnell line (40%) in the general?
Right now I’d say Trump wins Delaware in the general.
Unless we treat the rest of the election like Trump is dominating in the general, we are going to lose. He has been underestimated… really, the amount of horrible racist people in this country has been underestimated… the entire time, and every time we see the situation is far worse than we thought. Far as I’m concerned, he is beating the Dem by 10 points and we have a major task ahead of us keeping him out of office.
In the effed-up carnival fun-house that is American Democracy, that is exactly what you don’t want to do.
People vote for who they think is winning. (e.g Trump this primary season) So the best course is to run as if you are 20 points ahead.
you mean like JEB 🙁 did?
“really, the amount of horrible racist people in this country has been underestimated”
Really no. I believe that is the logical fallacy of composition which infers that racism is true of all his supporters because of the fact that it is true of some of his supporters.
Trumps supporters are not particularly ideological. They run the gamut of demographics (nearly half are women). If he is racist there is no evidence that he has ever acted upon his racism. The error is in listening to what he says, not what he does.
Trump is an entertainer; a showman. He feeds off the audience and their reaction to what he says. Trump has no real social values. He is neither liberal or conservative. His thinking has never even delved into any social aspect with anything more than a random thought. He has no real social convictions. He could care less about things like abortions, the poor, health care whatever. All he cares about is putting on a show and of course making money. He is having the time of his life at the moment.
Now he is getting 20% of the moderates which should be worrisome. So while many progressives are flushed after feeling the orgasmic Bern and pulling Clinton left, Trump is indeed locking up demographics, including inroads into the must have independent and moderate segments.
So whatcha gonna do now? Does Clinton have time to get back somewhere close to the center to capture some of the moderates or was the grand strategy just to move the Overton Window?