Open Thread for Wednesday, September 21, 2016

PRESIDENT
FLORIDA–Monmouth–Clinton 46, Trump 41
NORTH CAROLINA–Elon–Trump 44, Clinton 43
CALIFORNIA–Field–Clinton 50, Trump 33
NEW YORK–Siena–Clinton 51, Trump 30
GEORGIA–Monmouth–Trump 45, Clinton 42
ILLINOIS–Loras–Clinton 43, Trump 30

U.S. SENATE
NORTH CAROLINA–Elon–Ross 44, Burr 43
ILLINOIS–Loras–Duckworth 41, Kirk 36
NEW YORK–Siena–Schumer 69, Long 23

Donald Trump Jr’s tweet comparing Skittles to refugees has caused a furor on social media, the BBC reports. Now, the man who took the photo has revealed himself as a former refugee himself and said it was used without permission. Said David Kittos: “This was not done with my permission, I don’t support his politics and I would never take his money to use it.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told Bloomberg that Donald Trump’s admission last week that President Obama was born in the U.S. was “a start,” and suggested the Republican presidential nominee apologize. Said Graham: “I would apologize. I think the whole movement was unseemly. I had a lot of distaste for it. No factual basis. I think he would be taking the high ground, but that’s up to him.” He added: “I don’t think he did the country a service by pushing this.”

Greg Sargent on Clinton, Trump, the election and Millennials:

I don’t really see how this debate can be settled in any definitive way, because if Trump wins, there will be a whole lot of blame to go around. If millennials do end up helping cost Clinton the election, surely it’ll be reasonable to argue all of these things simultaneously:

1) First and foremost, Clinton and Democrats deserve the blame for failing to give millennials a compelling enough reason to vote for her; but…

(2) despite this, millennials who do vote for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein will indeed have wasted their votes, with potentially disastrous consequences for themselves and everyone else; and yet, even if that is so…

(3) this won’t necessarily make millennials any more responsible for the outcome than anyone else, and we’ll all have hell to pay for it.

But I do want to make a separate point, which is that the struggle to get it right with millennials could end up being a much bigger long-term story than the one reflected in the current arguments over whether they are or aren’t obliged to support Clinton in this election.

Political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien have collected data from more than 2,000 national polls covering every presidential election since 1952. The highest standing in the polling averages for each candidate in each election is plotted above. As you can see, Trump is doing no better than Dole and Mondale.

A new Morning Consult poll finds that nearly 75% of the registered voters plans to watch the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton next week.

When asked who they think will win the debate, 37% picked Clinton and 31% chose Trump while 32% either didn’t know or had no opinion

.@DonaldJTrumpJr pic.twitter.com/7IIpy8uujI

— Gabe Ortíz (@TUSK81) September 20, 2016

Sean Trende: “To be sure, Clinton did not want the polls to tighten. At the same time, this was a particularly awful series of news cycles for her, while Trump had managed to go over a month without reprising some of his more polarizing statements, such as his flap with the Khan family, who lost a son in Iraq. We would expect a big swing in the polls, and there was one.”

“But it did not put Trump over the top. A week in, she still leads by 0.7 points in the four-way RCP average, and 0.9 points in the two-way average. She maintains a lead in the Electoral College, and while North Carolina and Nevada appear to be close, her lead in the next-most-Republican state, Virginia (which would put Trump over the 270 mark), is 3.5 points.”

“In other words, a truly terrible news cycle was still not enough to put Trump ahead. In a strange way, that’s good news for Clinton.”

Donald Trump took aim at “magazines” and other media that publish instructions on how to make explosive devices, CNN reports.

Said Trump: “So I see the other day, and they’re all talking about it so wonderfully because it’s called freedom of the press — where you buy magazines and they tell you how to make the same bombs that you saw. I would — now people will go crazy, they’ll say Trump is against freedom of the press. I’m totally in favor of freedom of the press. But how do you allow magazines to be sold — these are magazines that tell you, from step one, go to the store and buy such-and-such, right?”

He added: “Those people should be arrested because they are inciting violence, OK.”

“Seven weeks before Election Day, the earliest numbers from advance voting for president show initial strength for Hillary Clinton in swing state North Carolina, good news for Donald Trump in battleground Iowa and a record number of requests for ballots in Ohio,” the AP reports.

“The first early voting figures Tuesday are too preliminary to serve as clear indicators about how the election will go. Still, they are of interest because, unlike polls, they deal with actual voters either casting ballots or taking their first steps to do so. Campaigns are scrutinizing these figures to help guide their strategies.”

“Seven weeks before Election Day, the earliest numbers from advance voting for president show initial strength for Hillary Clinton in swing state North Carolina, good news for Donald Trump in battleground Iowa and a record number of requests for ballots in Ohio,” the AP reports.

“The first early voting figures Tuesday are too preliminary to serve as clear indicators about how the election will go. Still, they are of interest because, unlike polls, they deal with actual voters either casting ballots or taking their first steps to do so. Campaigns are scrutinizing these figures to help guide their strategies.”

Talking Points Memo:

The Donald Trump campaign on Tuesday night blasted the Washington Post over the paper’s latest report on the Trump Foundation and how Trump used his charity’s funds for personal matters, but the campaign did not address the specifics of the report. […]

The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that Trump used a total of $258,000 from his foundation to settle personal legal issues. For example, when Trump was fined in 2006 by the town of Palm Beach over the height of the flag pole at Mar-a-Lago, Trump settled the issue by donating to a charity of the town’s choice. However, Trump wrote a check with funds from his foundation. This follows Washington Post reporting showing that Trump’s Foundation has largely used other people’s money in the past few years.

Responding to the Washington Post report on Tuesday night, the Trump campaign did not address the specific checks highlighted by the Post, and instead tried to turn focus on Hillary Clinton’s family charity.

The Trump campaign is most nervous about this story, according to reports. There is something thee. Keep digging.