Delaware Political Weekly: June 10-16, 2016

Delaware Political Weekly: June 10-16, 2016

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aren Peterson Retires.  Who Will Succeed Her? You can't replace her.  She really has been Delaware's Best Legislator for perhaps as long as she's been a legislator.  And let's talk about the term 'legislator'.  To me, she was such an effective legislator because she took on the big issues, and was successful in enacting some of the most progressive legislation in recent memory.  No one has meant more to equal rights for all Delawareans than Karen.  She is truly an historic figure, and deserves to be recognized as such.  Her combination of idealism and legislative smarts simply can't be replaced. Someone, however, will succeed her.  If I had to bet, I'd bet on Tim Sheldon.  Sheldon, you may recall was Tom Sharp's hand-picked choice to replace Sharp, who basically was living at the beach when he left office. You may recall that Peterson had her car tires slashed during that campaign.  It's not fair to place the blame on Sheldon.  But it's pretty clear that the construction trade goons who backed him had no problem employing such intimidating tactics. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if he had pretty much a clear field going into the general election.  The only other name that I've heard who might actually run is Val McCartan, who is Patti Blevins' Chief Staffer.  I like Val, but I don't see her as a glad-handler who is going to go door-to-door in a tough campaign.  She is a highly professional and skilled Senate staffer, but I don't think she has the candidate gene. I mean that as a compliment.
Thursday Open Thread, June 16, 2016

Thursday Open Thread, June 16, 2016

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Josh Marshall:
There's no magic to Trump's political showmanship. The magic we saw through the Spring was a unique bond, a sort of mindmeld of white backlash and derp Trump built on an inspired intuition into the mind of the base of the Republican party. Provocation and offense didn't hurt Trump because ... he was preaching to an audience that yearned for both as positive goods. Campaigning in front of a general election audience today it's all working quite differently. Over the last two days I heard report after report from our team on Capitol Hill about Senators who were refusing to answer questions about Trump, simply walking away when asked about him, or in a growing number of cases, after his harrowing and unhinged speech on Monday, openly attacking him. [...] A month ago Republican elected officials were unenthusiastically but resolutely rallying around Trump. Since then they've slowly been reduced to a public and political version of a family dealing with a hopeless addict or a degenerate gambler. They keep saying, insisting he'll change, only to have him provide more evidence he can't, won't and has no intention to. Their very indulgence seems to prompt more unbridled behavior. The disgraceful way Trump handled the hours after the Orlando atrocity seems to have confirmed for many Republicans that Trump will never change or pivot or whatever other phrase we're now using. It's not an act. It's him. How this couldn't have been clear months ago is a topic for the psychology of denial and wishful thinking. But now it seems clear. [...] The question is how long this can last. Pretty much daily, major Republican leaders don't just disagree with Trump but denounce him in pretty round terms, even as they remain at least nominal endorsers of his candidacy and accept him as the leader of their party. That is entirely unprecedented in modern American political history. It doesn't seem sustainable.
“Dem to win White House” hits $0.75, a new high close on IEM

“Dem to win White House” hits $0.75, a new high close on IEM

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I track the futures trading markets rather than polls because people are betting on outcomes with real money, and therefor stand to make (or lose) real money. That clears out the fanboys and pretenders. Of the predicting markets, I tend to look at IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) because they have the history and larger volume of trades. So when I see "Dem to win White House" closing at $0.75, I'm impressed. [$0.75 means that people are buying and trading "Futures Contracts" called "Dem to win White House" for $0.75. If they hold onto them, those contracts will pay off $1.00 if/when that outcome happens. The more likely that outcome becomes, the close the trading price gets to $1.00] As a point of comparison, at on this day in 2008, "Dem to win White House" closed at $0.60.
Wednesday Open Thread, June 15, 2016

Wednesday Open Thread, June 15, 2016

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Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is slated to address supporters with a video live stream on Thursday night, his campaign confirmed Tuesday. He may announce a transition to a platform campaign to press for changes to the party primary process and platform. Hillary seems to be doing a very good job of consolidating the Democratic base on her own without Bernie's help, so I am less concerned about an enthusiastic endorsement being made as soon as possible. Hillary has carved out some space for Bernie, Hillary and the DNC to negotiate and slowly tamp down the primary heat. Which is a good thing. A new Bloomberg poll finds that Hillary Clinton has opened up a double-digit lead nationally over Donald Trump, 49% to 37%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson getting 9%. Take out Johnson, and Hillary leads 54-36. That is simply a massive landslide that would sweep the country blue and give us back the House with a 20-30 seat majority. Very interesting: 55% of those polled saying they could never vote for Trump. Said pollster Ann Selzer: “Clinton has a number of advantages in this poll, in addition to her lead. Her supporters are more enthusiastic than Trump’s and more voters overall see her becoming a more appealing candidate than say that for Trump.” A new Reuters/Ipsos poll also shows Clinton leading by 12 points.
Sen. Karen Peterson is Retiring

Sen. Karen Peterson is Retiring

28 Comments
I just got word from a source that State Senator Karen Peterson has announced her retirement on the floor of the Senate. This is devastating news for progressives in this state. Clearly, from the reaction, and from my sources, this announcement was unexpected. I wonder if Peterson tabling Senate Bill 190, which is the first leg of an amendment to the Delaware Constitution to provide for equal protection under the law to all citizens regardless of race, sex, age, religion, creed, color, familial status, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity, or national origin, had anything to do with it. The filing deadline is July 12. There are no state representatives residing in her district. Literally none.