Year: 2016

Last night Hillary Clinton won Kentucky by 1 point, splitting the delegates at 27 a piece in a state demographically favored for Sanders, and she did much better than expected in Oregon, losing to Sanders by only an 8 point margin, 54-46, when the Sanders campaign was expecting a 30-40 point victory more in line with their performance in the Washington state caucus. In Oregon, Sanders wins 28 delegates to Clinton's 24, so he gains a net total of 4 on the night. Clinton is now 92 delegates away from clinching the nomination. Given the upcoming slate of primaries and the expected performances by the candidates in them, Hillary will likely clinch the nomination the second polls close in New Jersey and she is declared the projected winner, before we even get to California. She will score landslides in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and New Jersey. She will likely get 7 of the Virgin Island's 12 delegates. She will likely get 40 of Puerto Rico's 67 delegates (both results based on a conservative estimate of a Hillary 60-40 win in both). In New Jersey, early models of the vote show a landslide for Hillary.

New Jersey - We haven't seem demographics like this since Maryland. Blowout. Clinton 64% - Sanders 36%. pic.twitter.com/3Yrdsd8lHE

— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) May 18, 2016

Assuming a 64% win in NJ, Hillary will win 97 of the state's 142 delegates. And that puts her over the top at 8 pm on June 7. Hillary should plan on declaring victory that night. Concerns for the feelings of Sanders supporters, and for Sanders himself, after the unpleasantness of the last few days and Sander's tantrum last night, are over. Sanders alone is responsible for lying to his supporters by suggesting that the primary has been stolen. Sanders alone is responsible for lying to his supporters by suggesting that he can win the nomination. Sanders alone is responsible for talking his supporters down from the violence and outright terroristic and misogynist behavior they have engaged in over the last few days. He will concede to Hillary without precondition or concession in mid June like Hillary did in 2008. And then we will talk about reforms to the primary process in 2020 and beyond, where we eliminate caucuses, closed primaries and super delegates. Then we will talk about the platform. But not before.

Above this story about a British Inquiry into the Iraq war, this headline grabbed my attention.

Architects of disastrous Iraq War still at large

Jonathan Chait:

Donald Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns could be seen as a process issue, perhaps even a vetting question so important that it’s “disqualifying,” as Mitt Romney has called it. But perhaps it could be something more than that. It might be the thin end of the wedge that opens up a powerful theme against the self-professed billionaire: that Trump is a total fraud. Trump has repeatedly refused to publish his tax returns, and repeatedly lied about his intention to do so. He promised five years ago to release his returns when President Obama released his birth certificate, and reneged. He promised to release them in February 2015; again promised to do so last fall and then in January, then backed off on the grounds that he was under an IRS audit, an argument tax experts have unanimously dismissed as nonsensical. Now he insists there’s “nothing to learn from them.” As many financial reporters have speculated over the years, based on whatever fragmentary information Trump has provided, he almost certainly has far less money than he claims. A reporter who has dug into the question estimates Trump’s actual worth at $150–250 million; Trump claims to be worth $10 billion, which is at least 40 times the journalist's estimate. The reality of Trump’s business career is that he is not so much a great businessman but somebody who has figured out how to make money by convincing people that he is one. [...] The particulars of his day-to-day message, to the extent he has one, barely matter. His entire appeal rests on the bedrock of his identity as a successful entrepreneur. The vast wealth Trump claims to have amassed allows him to supposedly fund his own campaign, escaping the influence of fundraisers who control his opponents. His alleged deal-making skill explains why he will be able to improve every trade deal, solve every legislative impasse, and finesse every diplomatic conflict. Trump’s endlessly repeated proposition is that he will take the skills that made him so rich and generously use them to make the country rich. Without that, he’s just a dumber version of Pat Buchanan.

To all who want us to address the McDole shooting and the Howard beating: I know very little about it, and to the extent that I do know about it, I do not have a political opinion on it yet. I will check into it over the next few days, and if I am inspired to write about it, I will. But I won't make any promise that I or any one here will. I am not paid to do this. In fact, I pay to do this. This may sound kinda of crass, but this is my hobby. Politics. Local Politics. National Politics. When I get time to read and write, I do. As such, things that interest me, and that I have a political opinion about, are what I tend to write about. I don't know how to write about the beating of a teenager to death in a high school bathroom. This is not the News Journal or WDEL where we report the news and then analyze the news. I focus on politics, both Delaware and National. It is true, we have focused too much lately on national politics and the presidential race. Behind the scenes last week, I began to switch that national focus back to local by researching and writing up the Vote Tracker piece. El Som has his Pre Game Post Game General Assembly posts coming back this week. I am going to be writing more on the Congressional race, and I have a new entry coming tomorrow or Tuesday on who is running for each General Assembly seat. But I and we cannot cover everything you want. So, I do want you to encourage any and all of you to submit guest posts on the topics you want to see covered. Email me at DelawareDem@delawareliberal.net. And I your writing is good, hell, we may just keep you around.

I have heard that Valerie Longhurst was a little perturbed by Sean Barney taking some credit for passing the background check bill when he was in the Markell Administration. Apparently she warned Barney months ago to stop taking credit for gun safety legislation since allegedly he had no hand it helping get it passed. He didn’t listen. So now this: