Biden Is Running, Isn’t He?
Jason’s prediction is looking more likely by the day, as the Associated Press released a big story about how Joe Biden’s vast foreign policy experience makes him unique in the crowded Democratic field for 2020. Never mind that foreign policy plays little role in voters’ choice in elections, particularly for Democrats; Trump’s visit to Viet Nam gives the story a timely news peg. (It’s also on Delaware Online, but the link isn’t behind a paywall.)
Get ready for lots more of this. Because Biden currently polls at or near the top of the field, and has people who have cultivated the media for years, the media will treat him as the frontrunner as soon as he announces he’s running. With too many candidates to give them all time, the media will also winnow the field for us, my guess is to three candidates, most likely Bernie Sanders, Kamela Harris and Biden.
Please understand I’m not hoping this will happen, and I’m only talking about probabilities, not certainties. I make the prediction based upon past and current media behavior. The attacks on Amy Klobuchar are the only news she’s making — her positions aren’t as important as the fact that she once ate a salad with a comb. The media has taken Trump’s side in attacking Elizabeth Warren for her ancestry. The Beto moment seems to have passed, though I’d say there’s about a 3% chance he enters as a late compromise candidate.
Back to the AP story: I’d say it makes a good case for Biden as the next Democratic Secretary of State. If that’s what he’s running for, I support it.
Here’s Bernie Sanders’ take on engaging with his opponents:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-email-surrogates-respectfully-engage-bullying_n_5c72188fe4b03cfdaa55e866
He recognizes this as important even if some of his supporters fail to see it.
And along comes Maureen Dowd to pour a bucket of cold water on the idea:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/23/opinion/sunday/president-2020-joe-biden.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
The column contains links to all the Hunter tabloid fodder.
“Never mind that foreign policy plays little role in voters’ choice in elections”
And because I understand the federal government, foreign policy plays a large role in my choice. My Congressional vote is definitely domestic because appropriations sets policy, not vice versa. But for Prez? It’s foreign policy, tone, and leadership.
Politically it’s smart. When 30 fuckers run for President you need a lane. While Harris booker and Warren trip over each other saying how much weed they smoked or rap they Listened to or some other ridiculous pie in the sky bullshit proposal and brown and Klobuchar trying to take the centrist approach Biden swoops in as the adult. Seriously tho the most important job of President is being commander in Chief. It may not play well with the guy in skinny jeans in trolly square pants protesting the day of the week but it resonates with other primary voters.
Not saying joe is Gona win but I get it
This guy’s a real strategist.
Considering your senate, auditor and ag candidate all lost last year, yep def a better one then you
You’re not. Don’t embarrass yourself.
Please give a precise definition of “Trolley Square Pants.”
Go the next protest at Rodney square, bad style and haircuts are everywhere. Shouldn’t be to hard to find “that guy”, they are such rebels that they all look alike…oh wait
Trolley Square Pants is Sponge Bob’s brother.
I don’t think his family is as much of a difficulty as it might seem. I don’t think anyone in the primary would go there and Trump’s kids aren’t exactly model citizens. The Biden family can at least point to coping with family tragedy as a poor excuse, what can the Trumps say?
Btw – There are hints of a “bigger name” than Robert Kraft in the Florida human trafficking sting. My money’s on Eric.
The issue isn’t whether the mud will stick. It’s how much it will sting.
I don’t think it matters if he runs. I believe his campaign will sink quickly. His place in the polls is largely due to name recognition and Obama nostalgia. He has nowhere to go but down.
It’s not as if his previous presidential campaigns overachieved. What makes anyone think that it’s gonna be better this time? He’s a known quantity, with perhaps an even greater propensity for gaffes. As other candidates get better known, some of them, at least, will rise. While the known quantity will see his mile-wide, inch-deep support dissipate.
To paraphrase Lindsay Graham, “Ain’t enough angry coal miners in Scranton to elect Ol’ Joe.”
El Sombo with another swing and miss.
What you fail to see is that the crowd is SO ridiculously crowded voters may go with that they know then Warren Harris and Booker tripping over and attacking each other trying to be the “most woke”.
I do agree with you that Biden will make a gaffe, but they all will and have already. Joe like Trump is somewhat immune to some comments he make about the “clean” black folks and the 7-11 indian folks and how he makes Al Franken look well behaved with his hands. For whatever reason he has always gotten a past, most likely because hes Obamas boy. And being Obamas boy can take you very far. I suspect he will be the final 3 for sure.
“Ain’t enough angry coal miners in Scranton to elect Ol’ Joe”
There was enough to elect Trump. Biden’s campaign may ultimately sink, and if there wasn’t a Trump in the WH it might sink sooner rather than later. I find it difficult to believe that “handsy” will sink Biden, if much worse didn’t sink Trump. I think people will be looking for an adult. Joe Biden may not be that adult, but I would be reluctant to dismiss him so early.
never under estimate the GOP power of delusion and forgiveness (of their own).
Being “handsy” will turn off progressives. It’ll be a very effective wedge issue for the meme-trolls.
GOPers will knock him for it WHILE VOTING FOR THEIR RAPIST LEADER.
The centrists will use it to bolster their “both sides” bullshit.
I bet trmp himself would call Biden out on it in a debate and then deny deny deny his own many public actions.
Deep down, you know that’s how insane our reality has gotten.
“Being “handsy” will turn off progressives”
That’s what they may say, but the real reason is not that he is flawed, but that he is not progressive enough (or progressive at all). Any candidate that has not established their progressive bonafides, will have sullen and unenthusiastic progressives to contend with.
Expanding that out to the larger candidate pool, what is going to defeat the Democratic candidate will be the disunity that was a factor in 2016. That’s why I am predicting a Trump win. There are those who hate Trump, but they are in lock step with the ones who love Trump. That’s not the case on the other side, who will reluctantly claim to support to the chosen one, while continually whispering the name of their favorite sainted candidate, hoping for a miracle.
The upside of the big tent is that it’s very inclusive. The downside is that everyone in the tent belongs to a different tribe.
I think it is impossible for us in the First State to properly evaluate his candidacy, too ingrained in our consciousness when compared to the rest of the country. He does continue to lead the field in the early polling but I think a lot of that is name recognition at this point. I honestly don’t know if he can win the nomination. Can the Democrats of 2020 reasonably nominate a 76 year old white male? I’m not so sure.
Name recognition alone can sometimes be enough; that’s what got George W. Bush the nomination in 2000. But I think you’re right about us being in the worst position to see him with fresh eyes.
Take all of the Biden family’s dirty laundry and multiply it x 100. That amounts to a pinprick in compared to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill that the Trump-Kushner crime syndicate represents by comparison.
Remind me again who’s Dividing The Party™.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/02/clinton-staffers-still-complaining-about-bernie-sanders
Ex-Clinton staffers work for Putin!
(Bonus ep dropped as promised. Jason will link to it this evening.)
https://www.patreon.com/TheHighlandsBunker/posts
Consider a patronage.
Thanks for VF the link. The story, for those who didn’t click through, is about Clinton staffers mocking Bernie for requesting charter planes while he hopscotched the country stumping for Hillary.
Most succinct version of why people don’t like her I’ve ever heard.
Stumping for Hillary, you say? But I was under the impression that he wasn’t…. I mean to say that he didn’t…
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/us/politics/bernie-sanders-10-million.html
This will not stop. The next 18 months us going to be unprecedented