Top Five Reasons Carney is on pace to attract a primary challenge
Unlike Tom Carper, I can see John Carney attracting a primary challenger.
1) He is not well liked. Even within the party, he is viewed as a “Ruth Ann Minner: Part Duh” (c) 2017.
2) The Gov’s race cost much less to file for.
3) His retrograde economics give him the appearance of being at war with the Dem base. That is going to get more obvious as he rams through tax cuts and services cuts with the help of the DEGOP.
4) He could easily give up the Governorship to Ken Simpler. If he limps into 2018 with zero accomplishments (other than tax cuts for the very wealthy and service cuts for everyone else) he will be a very weak ticket-topper. Aint nobody got time for that.
5) His base is wealthy (the chamber of commerce), but small. He’d be beatable in a primary where money isn’t as big a factor (just ask Mike Castle).
6) Dems are fired up to want to vote for authentic Dems. Carney views himself as a post-partisan, 1980’s style DLC type Dem. If that shit wasn’t out of fashion two months ago, it sure as hell is now.
7) There are some well qualified, hungry Dems on the bench.
OK, so who’s qualified, on the bench, and likely to make a move?
Matt Denn — a little more liberal than your average “Delaware Way” D, but not one who’s ever tried to rock the boat?
Bryan Townsend — a DL favorite who couldn’t win a statewide primary?
Evan Barney — he’ll run for anything … and lose … but hasn’t shown himself qualified to be more than a back-bench advisor to elected officials?
Eugene Young — if he can’t be mayor, he might as well aim higher?
BHL — all it would take is the courage to split with Carney on some major issues?
Stephanie Hansen — win the SD 10 seat and become a shooting star?
Alby — why not?
If we’re going to start speculating three weeks into his term, this is at least a starting point. Maybe we need a poll.
Young, Townsend, and Denn. I could see any of those guys taking a shot at it for the reason’s listed. Carney would have to literally force Denn’s hand by outrightly sucking. So, Young and Townsend have the inside track.
Then there is the other tier miscreants; Tom Gordon, Alex Piers, some as yet unknown guy with the money enough to file,
Townsend and Young lost in 2016 but they’re still amazing and on the rise. Denn would be great but won’t rock boat. Barney will run for anything.
I’ll tell you all, seeing Carney do that routine today in person was sickening.
Saying “the best solution is strong economic growth.”
He talked more about franchise fees than bank taxes. Bank taxes are less than 2% of annual revenue by the look of this glossy propaganda they distributed (down from maybe 8% in FY 2000). Personal income tax stagnant at right around 30% of revenue the last 15 years from 2000 onwards.
Witnessing the act in person was gross. Clintonesqe.
Then the marijuana legalization performance I explained in the other post was an embarrassment. He should be ashamed. Earlier he’d mentioned off-handedly climate change to sound like a man of science. Then he talks about the reefer like he’s J Edgar Hoover.
Witnessing it live made me feel unclean.
Governor, they’re hoarding the money. Figure out a way politically to go get it.
Is it demagoguery if it’s true?
Anytime information is conveyed in percentages, there’s something to hide.
I don’t care about what percentage of total revenue any source is as much as I care about total revenue and the real-dollar increase or decrease in various sources — along with how much could be raised through various revenue-enhancement proposals.
What’s the point of electing Democrats if they govern as Republicans? Why does he cater more to the people who did not vote for him than those who did?
8) Carney has far less charisma than Jack Markel who could hold onto liberal Dems by at least sounding sorta on thier side.
Uh, he’s not up until 2020.
Carper’s up in 2018 and I COULD see a serious primary challenge to him from the left.
Carper has helped himself in the past 48 hours. I hope he keeps it up.
Oops. I see the error above.
I understand. The thought of four years of this dolt is…unthinkable.
I am consistently amazed by how often the writers of this blog overestimate how many people in Delaware think like you do. Sure, Eugene Young, Sean Barney, or Bryan Townsend could primary Carney. But absent one or more serious, high-profile disasters, Carney would trounce all of them. Eugene Young has a promising future, but he has exactly 2,734 votes to his name in his entire career. Sean Barney is not a serious candidate for anything. And finally, repeat after me:
Bryan Townsend is not a statewide candidate.
Bryan Townsend is not a statewide candidate.
Bryan Townsend is not a statewide candidate.
Write it on the blackboard until it sinks in.
38,000 votes is a steep hill to climb to be sure. Nobody would undertake it unless they have a shot. Carney appears to be gearing up for making it look like a reasonable risk.
I was at the meeting this morning too and I, like RE, was not impressed. That Carney could stand for ten minutes going on about pot, not explain why he was against it, and then turn around and say that had just explained it was absolutely infuriating, and the crowd really turned against him. It was magnificent.
That being said, I don’t know if anyone would be willing to challenge him. Carney may be weak by comparison, but he’s still mighty powerful. If someone takes him on, win or lose, that person will have a target on their back and I’m pretty sure if they lose, they’ll be done politically. I’m not sure if anyone who wants to have a future in Delaware politics wants to step up.
It would probably have to be a non-politician. Not someone on the bench as noted above, but a black swan.
You’d never raise enough money to beat Carney. You would have to be independently wealthy and charismatic, like Jack Markell. Carney would have to really mess up.
If we’re talking about swans: Joe Biden. A swan song.
@Skeezer I wish I could ‘like’ comments on this blog, I would’ve liked that comment a hundred times over!
Young’s vote total is a function of the primary race not his popularity or potential. Can’t judge him on the aggregate figure out of context.
On the other thing, yeah, unfortunately Carney is stuck in like a parasite.
@Skeezer and his fan: The point of primarying an entrenched incumbent isn’t to defeat him. It’s to make him work.
Alby… The point of running any campaign is to win. Moral victories are for losers.