Friday Open Thread [11.15.13]

First Read looks at the recent NBC News poll and finds Hillary Clinton has huge advantages over any Democrat willing to challenge her for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.

“She gets 70% among females, 70% among whites, 71% among seniors, 72% among the lowest-income Democrats, and 73% in the Northeast and 70% in the Midwest. Where she underperforms is among men (62%), college grads (62%), and 60% among upper-income Democrats – these are the remnants of Obama’s white coalition in the ’08 Democratic race. But a reality check here: She’s still getting SIXTY PERCENT among these folks, which suggests there isn’t really a substantial opening for another Democratic candidate (whether it’s Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, or anyone else). Remember, in 2005, there was some real Clinton fatigue among Democrats that provided the opening for Obama. That’s not the evidence right now.”

There was a little boomlet early this week about whether Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren

Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos begged to differ.

Trust me with this. Elizabeth Warren isn’t running. She wasn’t an eager Senate candidate. It took lots of cajoling and begging to get her to make that race. And if you’re hesitant to mount a Senate campaign in a small state where you can go home and sleep in your bed after a day of campaigning, you aren’t going to want to engage in presidential craziness.

You need an immense ego to run for president, a religious-like certainty that you are the best person IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY OF 314 MILLION to run it. That’s not who Elizabeth Warren is. She’s on a mission, make no mistake, to reform the way Wall Street does business. But she already has a platform to make that happen—a perch in the nation’s Most Exclusive Club and a grassroots army of millions amplifying her voice.

To fill the progressive void, I bet Howard Dean will run, and he has already made noises as such. But Markos is right. If Hillary runs, she is the nominee. And I don’t care what you say about her losing in 2008 means she can also lose in 2016. Barack Obama was the perfect candidate to beat her, and he was given perfect circumstances coupled with a host of Hillary mistakes that will not be made again. Plus, team Obama has basically jumped on board with team Clinton:

Jim Messina and John Podesta, top former aides to Barack Obama and Bill Clinton respectively, “are currently in talks to co-chair a board backing Hillary Clinton — a plan that, should it come to fruition, would be a dramatic early symbol of party unity behind the former secretary of state.”

Morning Money: “New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie gets all the love as the current GOP front-runner for 2016 (to the extent there can even be a front runner three years out.) But there is growing chatter in elite New York financial circles that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is giving more serious consideration to getting in the race, especially if it appears at any point that Christie is not drawing big national appeal beyond the northeast. Several plugged in GOP sources said Bush has moved from almost certainly staying out to a 30 percent chance of getting in. The ’70/30′ odds pop up in so many conversations they almost seem like circulated talking points.”

Jeb Bush will run. It is his last chance to run. So he has to run. If his last name was not Bush I dare say he would be a runaway favorite. Bush and Christie will divide the sane vote. The insane vote will be divided between Paul and Cruz. Now, who will win? It depends on the answer to this question: Are their more sane than insane people in the Republican Party/Tea Party?