Tuesday Open Thread [10.2.12]

First Read:
"Heading into tomorrow night's first presidential debate, both President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney have two big vulnerabilities that his opponent can exploit. And it's safe to say that whichever candidate better addresses his vulnerabilities will have more success in Wednesday's debate." "For Obama, one of his vulnerabilities is that he hasn't fully described what a second term would look like... For Mitt Romney, a big vulnerability is that he hasn't differentiated his economic policies from George W. Bush's."
This is a rather tired media narrative and Republican talking point: that Obama has not told us what he will do in a second term. Only illiterates and the stupid can possibly say that. He is going to continue to do the things the Republicans continue to block: the passage of the American Jobs Act, the repeal of the tax cuts for the wealthy, the Dream Act, Immigration Reform, implementation and improvement of Obamacare, ending the war in Afghanistan, and investing in new energies (solar, wind) and high speed rail, internet and highway infrastructure. I mean, did these people (idiots like Chuck Todd) not watch his convention speech?

The Polling Report [10.2.12]

Andrew Sullivan:
Romney, by the way, has had a bounce back on Intrade, up from around 21 percent chance to 26 percent. Nate Silver's now-cast has Romney with a 2.2 percent chance; and his forecast for November gives him a 14 percent chance. I didn't expect it to break this way - but it has, because of the arguments of both sides. Campaigns matter. The candidate matters. And the moment matters. It's an alchemy democracy; and it still holds the potential for surprise.
I did expect it to break this way. As did Booman, who is now seeing the beginnings of a blowout. Here is our map:

It Begins…

Former Georgetown Mayor Brian Pettyjohn, a Republican, has filed as a write-in candidate for the 19th Senate seat. Far Right radical religious conservative teabagger Eric Bodenweiser won the Republican primary against the incumbent Republican Senator Joe Booth. The Democratic nominee is Jane Hovington. Today was the deadline for write in candidacies to be filed.

Monday Open Thread [10.1.12]

After examining all presidential polls since 1972, Nate Silver explains:
"Data suggest that polling in presidential elections has no history of partisan bias, at least not on a consistent basis. There have been years, like 1980 and 1994, when the polls did underestimate the standing of Republicans. But there have been others, like 2000 and 2006, when they underestimated the standing of Democrats...In all but three years, the partisan bias in the polls was small, with the polling average coming within 1.5 percentage points of the actual result. (I use the term "bias" in a statistical sense, meaning simply that the results tended to miss toward one direction.)"
So Nate Silver had to take time out of his weekend because some right winger babies cannot handle reality? Seriously, if every radical right wing conservative disappeared tomorrow, can you imagine how much better our society would be, instantly?

The Polling Report

We have some new state polls out of Iowa, Ohio, Arizona and North Carolina, as well as some interesting national polls. But the race basically remains as it has for weeks since the conventions: Obama is winning.

Saturday Open Thread [9.29.12]

"Many of the well-known Ohio Republicans I interviewed offered their blunt assessments only after they were guaranteed complete anonymity. That is often the Faustian bargain of political journalism in 2012: robotic talking points on the record or something resembling honesty with no names attached. The reason, though, that I am emphasizing the don't-quote-me part of the equation is that I was stunned by the vehemence of the thumbs-down-on-Mitt verdict. All but conceding the state to Obama, these Republicans were offering what may be the biggest rejection of Ohio since Philip Roth wrote Goodbye Columbus."

A Couple of Cell Phone Pics from Last Night’s Gilligan Gala

... and some tibits from last night's honoring of the retiring Speaker of the House, Bob Gilligan: Congressman Carney gave the Speaker a Congressional Recognition, and remarked about how Gilligan gave him his first job as a Legislative Fellow. Senator Coons remarked that Gilligan was a friend, a role model and a mentor. Vice President Biden said that Gilligan was his county councilman back in the day, that he has been a state leader, and that Gilligan proved that in Delaware you're never out of reach. Vice President Biden concluded, "I'll see you at the beach." Mike Castle said that Gilligan would always beat the best people Castle could find to run against him, so Castle finally gave up.

The Polling Report [9.29.12]

Hey, Republicans. We have been where you are now. The year was 2004, and we liberals could not believe that President Bush was leading John Kerry, a candidate that most of us liberals did not like but had embraced in what turned out to be a vain effort to defeat President Bush. We sought out any argument that proved that the polls were false. Those arguments were that the pollsters were sampling too many Republicans. Sound familiar? And how did that election turn out? The polls were right, much to our chagrin. The polls are right now. President Obama is winning and winning convincingly. Indeed, according to Nate Silver, there is now more of a chance that Barack Obama will win by a landslide than Mitt Romney will win at all. There is one basic fact that Republicans now and we liberals in 2004 ignore when we discounted polls: polling companies want to be right because that's their business model. If they are accurate, they get more business from media organizations and candidates. Remember, media organizations and candidates and party organizations and other organizations hire and pay polling companies and institutes to perform the polls and get accurate results. If they are skewing polls for reasons other than being accurate, then they would lose money. You should understand this Republicans. It's free market capitalism. Now, there are some polling organizations whose business model is not to be accurate but to drive narratives in the media. Rasmussen is one such example. They get paid not to be right, but to be favorable to one side. So Republicans, as always, you are so very good at projection. The thing you decry is the thing you rely on.