Open Thread

Ross Douthat imagines the state of our politics today if the Iraq War never happened:

[T]ake away Iraq’s imprint on our politics, and America might well have still elected a Democrat to replace George W. Bush. But because of Iraq, the Democratic majority that did come to power in 2006 and 2008 has been more aggressive on public policy, less defensive in the culture war, and more proficient in the art of base mobilization than a hypothetical Clinton Restoration would have been – and their Republican opposition has been more ideologically bunkered-down, less nimble and less inclined to woo the center, than the G.O.P. might have been absent the trauma of Iraq.

Without Iraq, there is no Obama presidency. Obama would not have been able to distinquish himself from Clinton in the primaries and would have lost to her. Perhaps even more importantly, there would have been no Howard Dean. Thus, while Hillary would have gone on to beat John McCain due to the 2008 economic collapse, the Democratic Party would be a moderate mess, as the progressive take over of the party in 2005 would not have happened, and the 2006 retaking of Congress probably does not happen (although it would have in 2008).

It will be a historic day at the Supreme Court over the next two days as the Court hears arguments in two cases affecting marriage equality in this country. Today, the Court will consider whether California's ban on same-sex marriage, a law known as Prop 8 or Prop Hate, which was passed by referendum in 2008, is unconstitutional. Tomorrow, the Court will consider whether the Defense of Marriage Act is unconstitutional.

So how are your NCAA brackets doing? I was reminded by President Jed Bartlett via Twitter that there is no Federal Disaster assistance for your brackets. Oh well.

I wrote about his several weeks ago, about but how our "right to vote" is illusionary as it is not enshrined in the Constitution as a right and that is why racist Republicans can get away with passing laws that burden the exercise of the privilege to vote. Well, now Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellows Jonathan Soros and Mark Schmitt agree with me and argue that we need a Right to Vote Amendment to the Constitution to focus the activist movement and help ensure that you can participate in our political system even if you don't have an "Inc." after your name.

"We've got a socialist in office right now -- how's that working for us?" -- Republican National Committeeman Henry Barbour (R), quoted by The Hill, while talking about the Republican Party's need to improve its brand. Well, Haley, it is working out quite well, actually. The Stock Market is hitting record highs, the economy is growing and showing real signs of a take off this year, the unemployment rate is falling, millions of new jobs are being created each year, and we have cut our deficit in half over the last four years. If that is what socialism is called, then hell yeah, give me more socialism!

You want proof that Hillary will run in 2016? Well, she just released a video announcing her support for marriage equality, which was not a surprise, but since she had to steer clear of making any political statements while Secretary of State, Hillary has been silent on the issue since the 2008 campaign. In my opinion, if she were just a private citizen enjoying her retirement, I don't think such a video would be released.

John Dickerson's Slate post, "Is Obama Setting a Trap for Republicans?" probes white house strategy in the budget negotiations. Sure, the president would like a grand bargain on the budget, and he has to try for one, knowing full-well that the Republicans could string him along for a while, then sink the negotiations at any time. In that event, Obama has the cover he needs to hang tough and reveal, once again, that the Republicans can't govern because they won't compromise -- not a bad meme for 2014.

Roll Call points out that Paul Ryan is required by law and all that is holy to get down on his knees and praise President Obama and his policies, for without him and them, his budget plan would be nothing.

Ryan’s budget eliminates the deficit in 2023 not because of large new spending cuts relative to his past budgets, but because he’s keeping hundreds of billions of dollars a year of President Barack Obama’s own budget policies in place. Ryan’s claim to a balanced budget rests entirely on the 2010 health care law, known in GOP circles as “Obamacare.” Ryan’s budget keeps the tax revenue from the health care law, as well as its $700 billion-plus Medicare trims and other cuts. Ryan included those Medicare cuts in his previous budget blueprints but campaigned against them when he joined Mitt Romney’s GOP presidential ticket last year. Ryan’s budget also would not balance without the $600 billion-plus increase in taxes extracted by the president in the fiscal cliff deal. What Ryan would repeal is the $1.8 trillion in new spending on the health care law, which primarily subsidizes the purchase of private insurance. That includes $263 billion in spending on the law in 2023 alone.

This art installation went live last week on the San Francisco Bay Bridge between San Francisco and Oakland. This is supposed to remain up for 2 years, but I think it should be permanent.

Ever wanted to know what it was like to fall off a mountain? Here you go:

Today's edition in restoring your faith in humanity: The man who secretly filmed Mitt Romney's 47% fundraiser speech to the 1% will be interviewed tonight on MSNBC by Ed Shultz. Why did he do it? Well, it turns out that simple manners, and respect and concern for the staff goes a long way.

Prior to his political fame, the filmmaker worked as a bartender for a high-end catering company. Before that company was hired for the Romney event, it catered a dinner at which Bill Clinton spoke. The bartender/Romney-ruiner told the Huffington Post that after the speech, Clinton went to the kitchen to thank the staff, posing for photographs and signing autographs. So when the bartender heard about the Romney event, he decided to bring his camera with him, just in case the candidate met with the staff like Clinton did. But because he's Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate didn't greet or thank any of the staff working the event, and rushed out shortly after his speech, though not before bartender secretly filmed it, noting that Romney told the dinner guests it was off the record but not the staff working the event.

More facts for the Fact Averse: Peter Beinart is now convinced that “Jeb Bush will never seriously challenge for the presidency—because to seriously challenge for the presidency, a Republican will have to pointedly distance himself from Jeb’s older brother”:

No Republican will enjoy credibility as a deficit hawk unless he or she acknowledges that George W. Bush squandered the budget surplus he inherited. No Republican will be able to promise foreign-policy competence unless he or she acknowledges the Bush administration’s disastrous mismanagement in Afghanistan and Iraq. It won’t be enough for a candidate merely to keep his or her distance from W. John McCain and Mitt Romney tried that, and they failed because the Obama campaign hung Bush around their neck every chance it got. To seriously compete, the next Republican candidate for president will have to preempt that Democratic line of attack by repudiating key aspects of Bush’s legacy. Jeb Bush would find that excruciatingly hard even if he wanted to. And as his interviews Sunday make clear, he doesn’t event want to try.