Open Thread

For the first time, the Gallup daily tracking poll shows Mitt Romney breaking through his previous ceiling of support. Romney now leads the Republican presidential field with 31%, followed by…

A new Public Policy Polling survey in South Carolina has Mitt Romney leading, but not as big of a lead as with other recent polls. Romney leads with 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 23%, Rick Santorum at 19%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1%. Now, keep in mind that South Carolina is the LAST chance for any of these horrible alternatives to Romney to pull off a win. If Romney wins South Carolina, the nomination is his.

So Romney is heading for a blow out win in New Hampshire, although one poll show a Huntsman surge. But it is probably an outlier, and even in that poll, Romney still leads with 37. After New Hampshire, Huntsman drops out. The conservative remains divided until South Carolina between Perry, Gingrich, Perry and Santorum. Which is why Romney is leading in South Carolina, aided by a polling boost from a "win" in Iowa. If Romney wins there, it's all over. And conservatives will be left a candidate they absolutely hate.

We finally have an Obama conspiracy theory that makes sense.

And I'm spent. Let me tell you my last 12 hours.

Nate Silver gives Romney a 42 percent chance of winning the Iowa caucuses, followed by Ron Paul at 34 percent and Rick Santorum at 20 per cent. The final Des Moines Register poll, which has an impressive track record, indicates a 2 point lead for Romney over Paul. Ezra Klein also sees a Romney win. Howard Dean and Ed Schultz predict a Santorum upset.

Will New Hampshire get closer like Iowa once the election draws nearier (it is in 1 week)? Right now, it doesn't look likely, as a new Suffolk University poll has Mitt Romney with a commanding lead at 41%, followed by Ron Paul at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 11%, and Jon Huntsman at 9%. Another 8% is split by Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum and 16% are still undecided.

I hope you all are enjoying your New Year's holiday. Let's hope that 2012 is wonderful year full of happiness and success. So let's get started on that with the first open thread of the New Year. Ever hear of a murmuration? Well, you've heard of a murder of crows, right? A murmuration is a grouping of Starlings, and as this video inside shows, their movements are almost otherworldly. It looks like special effects. Meanwhile, Nate Silver has an awesome interactive infotastic Iowa Almanac for 2012. And what would a Santorum or Paul win in Iowa mean for Mitt Romney?

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) told Fox News that Republicans face a tough choice on President Obama's jobs bill: "If we vote for this plan, we'll own the economy with the president, and he desperately needs someone else to blame it on. If we vote against it, he's going to try to say Congress blocked his ability to create jobs." Sounds about right.

Phillies win as Cole Hamels pitches 8 shutout innings and the Cubdom lets out a collective shriek. Cal Thomas recently wrote: This mess has afforded conservative Republicans an opportunity to ask…