Tag: Greg Lavelle
Dear Delaware GOP
With all of Trump’s shenanigans between religious tests for immigrants, the reformation of the National Security Council, and building the wall, you think we would have forgotten. Sorry, Delaware Republicans, we’ve learned how to multi-task.
Game of Thrones, Episode One: Rules of the Game and the Governor.
The rumblings have started. The game of musical chairs begins as potential candidates start eyeing a particular chair and then nervously eye each other while the music plays.
So in working through this, let’s make some assumptions:
1. Governor Markell will not be a candidate for any of these upcoming races. This is because I assume, no matter who wins the Presidential election, Markell will be in the Cabinet. He is the perfect Democrat a Republican President would chose for Secretary of Education or Secretary of Commerce, and I can see President Hillary Clinton likewise tapping him for Commerce, Education or Treasury.
2. Treasurer Ken Simpler is not running for Governor, but for reelection in 2018.
3. In the same vein, and much to my personal chagrin, Attorney General Matt Denn will not be running for Governor either, but will run for reelection in 2018. For you see, Mr. Denn is the most progressive statewide official and has been since his arrival as Insurance Commissioner back in 2004. But, and this goes for Simpler too, two years on the job is not enough of a platform to run for a new one. Beau Biden recognized this back in 2010, back when he had been on the job of AG for 4 years, but spent 18 months of that in Iraq. And it is a shame too, since that was likely his last chance at higher office. But I digress. For Denn, and I am sure he is aware of this, a run for Governor so soon after a switch of office to AG from LG, coupled with his history of jumping from IC to LG after one term, an uncomfortable reputation might emerge.
4. Insurance Commissioner Stewart and Auditor Wagner will not leave their respective jobs voluntarily until they die. They will not retire. And they cannot be defeated in a primary. For Wagner, having an elected statewide Republican is still a rare enough thing that I am not sure another Republican can be found to challenge him. For Stewart, the only way she can be defeated is if you limit her primary challengers to 1. If she has more than 1 primary challenger, her 32% inexplicable base support in the party will allow her to win. But that will never happen because Tom Gordon and Dennis Williams will step again with their City-County-Stewart unholy tripartite alliance and save him with one or more primary challengers.
5. Beau Biden will not run for any office in 2016. His announcement that he was foregoing a 2014 reelection race and would instead run for Governor in 2016 was a smokescreen, a place-holding statement to preserve his political capital and position in the Party and politics should his health and/or prognosis improve. It was a wise, smart move on that front. But it is not our reality. Beau Biden is not running for Governor, or any office. And I am not going to pretend that he is. If he starts making public appearances, if he starts speaking at these public appearances, and if he releases information as to his health scare, treatment and prognosis, then I will take him seriously as a potential candidate.
6. Tom Carper has a one more election cycle in him before he turns into Bill Roth and someone Carpers him. And I say that wanting Carper to retire to the Florida beach with Castle with every fiber of my being.
So, having said all that, let’s look at who are the candidates for Governor first, because the candidates for this highest office will determine, in a trickle down that actually works, the candidates for the other offices.
Election 2014: Delaware’s Most Vulnerable Incumbents
I’m El Somnambulo, and I’m a listaholic.
Admit it: So are you.
Bearing in mind that incumbents need viable challengers in order to be vulnerable, here is a list of those with at least reason to be worried:
State Auditor Tom Wagner: A do-nothing R in an increasingly D state. Here’s the problem. If a do-nothing R is replaced by a do-nothing D, does it really make any difference? No doubt it does to Tom Wagner. But not to Patrick Harker or Lonnie George. Which is my point. And the problem.
State Treasurer Chip Flowers: While the R’s talk hopefully, and, IMHO, delusionally, about defeating him, I suspect that any real challenge would come from the Democrats. We’ll likely know in 6 months or so whether there will be a party-backed challenger. We might as well get used to Flowers being a polarizing figure by choice. Which would be fine if it was principle, not ego, driving that train.
State Senator Greg Lavelle (4th SD): Got 50.8% against Michael Katz. Probably less vulnerable this time, but he’s got two more years of anti-gay and pro-gun votes on his record. Will a credible challenger emerge?
I know that people expect me to have Ernesto Lopez on this list, but I don’t see him as particularly vulnerable. Feel free to make a case.
More inside….
Delaware Political Weekly: Oct. 13-19, 2012
The political world in western Sussex returns to normal. While there will likely be some confusion on the R side, Eric Bodenweiser’s full withdrawal from the 19th Senate District race virtually guarantees that Brian Pettyjohn will keep this crimson red senate seat in the R column come November. Bodenweiser’s name will not appear on the ballot. While voters indeed will have to write in Pettyjohn’s name, the DOE will make it as easy as possible for people to do so, and I don’t think it will be close. Don’t blame Jane Hovington. She stepped up and took one for the team, whatever that team might be in western Sussex. Which begs this thought: You’ve got a moribund Democratic Party in western Sussex. You’ve got a growing Latino and minority population base that has next to no voice in the official party structure there. A party structure that is almost gone. I see a great opportunity to build a new and more inclusive Democratic Party in western Sussex. With grassroots leadership from these growing populations. It’s not as if there’s gonna be a revival of the good ol’ boys Democrats there. There’s a political vacuum. Fill it, amigos.
Question of the Day
Why is The News Journal lazy? Specifically, why when there is a state story that may be considered a scandal do they always turn to Greg Lavelle for a quote? Is Charlie Copeland that busy that they can’t alternate weeks?
General Assembly Post-Game Wrap-Up/Pre-Game Show-Wed., May 5, 2010
Allow me to be the first to extend my congratulations to Monsignor Lavelle and Rep. Kovach. Yesterday, they earned the distinction of being the only ones opposing legislation to enable victims of abuse by healthcare providers (Read: Br. Bradley) to file civil suits any time after the incident(s) occurred. Dave Wilson and Dan Short went […]
Lavelle: Good News, Bad News
The good news: Republican State Representative Greg Lavelle will not throw his hat in for Mike Castle’s vacant Congressional seat, reports The Community News. “I recognize, and others in the GOP who are considering a run for the office must also recognize, that organizing a genuine and effective campaign, including the challenges of raising more […]
My Take On the Carney vs. Fill-In-the-Blank Congressional Race
Yesterday, the News-Journal’s Ginger Gibson wrote that the upcoming race to fill Metamucil Mike’s Oxford loafers would “guarantee(s) the first real contest in decades” for Delaware’s lone and lonely congressional seat. University of Delaware political science professor Joe Pika, who really should know better, said: “It’s likely to be a true campaign for the first […]
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