THE SENATE

As you can see, it is impossible for the GOP to win back the Senate. They need to pick up 5 seats, and the only toss up race I foresee is one they will be defending, Cathy Cloutier in the 5th. They may be able to make the 7th, 8th, and 15th Senate Districts competitive (where I have categorized the races as “Lean Democratic”). But to win the Senate, they would not only have to win those three districts, but also pull shocking and miraculous victories over Karen Peterson and Bruce Ennis to get to a pick-up of five seats they would need to capture the majority, all the while holding onto to the competitive 5th Senate District. I simply do not see it happening. I think it is possible, perhaps likely, that the Republicans will knock off one of the three “Lean D” districts, with Patty Blevins being the most obvious choice since Fred Cullis decided to withdraw from his quixotic race for the US Congress to focus his energies on Patty. Or it could be longtime incumbent Nancy Cook in Kent County. But that pickup will be offset from what I see as the long awaited defeat of Cathy Cloutier in the 5th.

So, if I were a betting man, I would once again, predict that the Senate, like the House, will remain exactly the same, with there being 15 Democrats and 6 Republicans.

(5) CATHY CLOUTIER—Toss-up. The Beast who Slumbers has written extensively about Cathy Cloutier and her status as the most endangered Republican in the Senate. He has also met with her opponent this time around, Christopher Counihan. You can read his post resulting from that interview here. Here is an excerpt:

I met with Counihan last week at Brew Ha Ha, and came away with the distinct sense that the race is now his to lose. Counihan has […] been working on the campaign for several months, has put together a very strong campaign team and, most importantly of all, will make a very positive impression with voters. […] He has a PhD. and teaches international relations at the University of Delaware. In addition to his business background, outlined at his website, he has also taught at St. Joe’s, Immaculata College, and West Chester University. He will be in a position to wage an aggressive door-to-door campaign, and says that he loves to do so. […] He is very involved with the Claymont Community Center and the Claymont Renaissance, and is working on a very exciting project that could prove to be invaluable to Claymont’s economic recovery.

The key question in this race is who will get the support of organized labor? In 2006, Cloutier begged them to support her again, and they did, and she barely slipped past an unknown candidate in Pat Morrison. Will Labor do that again? If they support Counihan, he wins going away. If they support the Republican Cloutier, it is quite possible Cloutier will squeeze by yet again, but it is just as possible that Counihan will win without their help, and then he owes them nothing.

(7) PATTY BLEVINS—Lean Democratic. Fred Cullis is the Majority Leader’s opponent this time around. She won with 73% in 2006. Fred Cullis might want to consider changing his website domain name, as it still says Cullis for Delaware, a remnant from his Congressional race. But I guess Cullis for the Seventh doesn’t sound as good. Cullis’ name recognition is probably higher than most of Blevins’ past opponents, but does that translate into making this race competitive? And do our progressive frustrations with Blevins equate to her constituents’ frustration with her, and is Cullis an acceptable replacement for her in their eyes? Those unanswered questions are why I classify this as a Lean Democratic race.

(8) DAVID SOKOLA—Lean Democratic. I classify this as a Lean Democratic race only because Sokola won in 2006 with “only” 57% of the vote. For a Senator who has been in office since 1990, that seems low to me, but then again, that was a vast improvement over the 51% he received in 2002. So I may be just talking out of my ass, but I just feel like this race might be competitive. I cannot tell if his challenger, Republican Louis Saindon, is a credible candidate who can make this race competitive. Bulo calls Saindon “one of those cookie cutters from another Rethug front organization–Leadership Delaware.”

(9) KAREN PETERSON—Safe Democratic. The Progressive champion, who was unopposed in 2006, is being challenged by Robert S. Johnston, who resigned his position as President of the Exton, PA Chamber of Commerce to take on this race. Johnston does live in Newark, he just works in Pennsylvania, which is fine since I do too. Here is an interesting tidbit: Johnston’s wife, Karen, is a Democrat. I wonder who she will be voting for. LOL.

(14) BRUCE ENNIS—Safe Democratic. Ennis seems well suited for his district, but this will be his first race for reelection. His opponent, John Moritz, is a Townsend resident and the President of Delta Engineering Corp., an aeronautical engineering firm.

(15) NANCY COOK—Lean Democratic. I classify this as a Lean Democratic district due to the conservative nature of the district, Cook’s longevity in the seat (i.e. voters may be looking for a change), and this being a Republican year. If the GOP had a credible challenger, this would probably be a competitive toss up race. Is Republican David Lawson a credible challenger? He is a retired Delaware State Police lieutenant and current owner of the “Shooter’s Choice” gun store in Dover. He is a certified firearms instructor, teaching the course that applicants for a concealed-carry permit must pass.

THE HOUSE

As you can see, the Democrats have 16 safe seats, and are damn close to a majority with those safe seats. Add in the lean districts, and you have 18. The Democrats would have to win just three more seats out of the nine toss ups to keep their majority. Thus, you can see how the Republican’s challenge is so daunting, even before Cathcart, Carey, Thornburg and Oberle called it quits. If I were a betting man, I would predict that the GOP will pick up the 10th and the 18th, defeating Dennis E. Williams and Mike Barbieri, respectively. But those two pickups will be offset by the Democratic pickups of Cathcart’s former seat in District 9, and Oberle’s former seat in the 24th. I think Kovach will hold on in the 6th, and Jacques or Maravelias will retain the 27th. The Republicans will win the open seat in the 29th, which is a retention for them and not a pickup. I expect one of the Kent County Three (Walls, Scott, Bennett) to fall, so that will be a Republican pickup. But that will be offset by Russ McCabe winning the open seat in the 36th.

So after all of this, as it stands now, I predict the House will stay exactly the same, 24 Democrats and 17 Republicans.

(2) HAZEL PLANT—Safe Democratic. The Republicans have not fielded a candidate. But this is a contested election as Rep. Plant has not one but two primary opponents. Wilmington City Council President Pro Tempore Stephanie Bolden and Darius Brown. The circumstances of Bolden’s entrance in the race are interesting, to say the least. She says she entered the race to prevent Hazel’s son from filing for the seat at the last second without any party opposition, which was probably the plan, given Hazel’s recent health issues. But now that Mickey Plant is not running, the question is will Bolden stay in? Well, she is still in. As for Darius Brown, he is a former staffer to Sen. Ted Kaufman.

(3) HELENE KEELEY—Safe Democratic. As in the 2nd, the GOP is not fielding a candidate yet, but bail bondsman Bob Bovell is again challenging Keeley. He lost in 2006, so I am not sure how much of a challenge he will put up this time. Bulo’s take: She still has a bit of the ‘deer in the headlights’ to her, but she is sincere, well-liked by both constituents and the House staff, and she does work real hard for her constituents.

(4) GERALD BRADY—Safe Democratic. Brady faces young Republican corporate lawyer Rick Carroll. Carroll faces a daunting demographic challenge, as the number of Democrats in the district has doubled since 2005. Bulo’s take: Brady is electorally popular. He has an idiot savant-like knowledge about virtually every family’s genealogy in the city. He can’t remember what he said two minutes ago, but he can expound on generations of different families’ histories. He also works the senior high rises to perfection, and has mastered the art of harmlessly flirting with the little old ladies. Two years ago, he demolished blog fave Tyler Nixon, garnering 73.4% of the vote. Look for more of the same this time.

(6) TOM KOVACH—Tossup. Kovach won a low turnout December 2008 special election, when Democrats were hungover from a landslide victory at all levels of government the prior month. The Republican Kovach slipped by Democrat Mike Migliore with 51%, or by 73 votes. Now he faces Brandywine School Board President Debra Heffernan. This will be a very competitive race as the 6th District is a strong Democratic district, in which 46% of the voters are Democrats, while only 29% are Republicans.

(7) BRYON SHORT—Lean Democratic. Short won reelection with 59% of the vote in 2008. Now he faces Republican Judith Travis, who garnered recognition for her Stockings for Soldiers campaign. Travis seems to be the right kind of candidate to give Short a competitive race, but with the district trending Democratic, I consider it a lean D district for now. But we should keep a watch on this one.

(8) QUINTON JOHNSON—Lean Democratic. While Johnson won in this heavily Democratic district in 2008 with 57%, he is still a first termer, so until he until he gets a few more victories under his belt, I cannot consider him safe. Johnson faces a primary challenge from Valerie Jones Rabb. There is an interesting backstory there, as Jones-Rabb ran against Johnson’s wife, Julie Johnson, for a seat on the Appoquinimink School Board back in May and lost. Is revenge a motivation here? Who knows, but Jones-Rabb does not pose much of a threat to Johnson. After the primary, Johnson will face Kate Rokosz, an unknown it would appear. So the only way this race becomes a toss up is if Johnson loses the primary to Valerie Jones-Rabb.

(9) OPEN—Lean Democratic. This must have been a kick in the gut for the Republicans. All the party faithful are all hyped up about taking back the House after two years in the minority, and then their leader, Dick Cathcart, ups and quits on them. Hahahaha. As I said above, the GOP has to gain four seats for the majority, and they cannot afford to defend competitive open seats where they would not be the favorite but for the incumbent being a Republican. That is what we have here. This district has been trending Democratic over the last two election cycles. Rebecca Walker is back again after losing to Cathcart in 2008 and 2006. This time she faces Richard Griffiths. Whomever wins is the favorite in the fall against the Republican. The current registration is: 8548 D’s; 6515 R’s; and 4714 I’s. Obama trounced McCain in District 9, 8377-5833. On the GOP side, Cathcart has endorsed John Marino, a state police officer. Anthony Mirto, a small businessman, baseball coach, veteran and all around family man, is also running. I would expect Marino to have the edge due to the endorsement.

(10) DENNIS E. WILLIAMS—Tossup. The other Dennis Williams barely won with 50.4% over longtime Representative Bob Valihura in 2008, helped no doubt by the presence of President Obama on the ballot. In 2010, this “Naamans Road District” is the Republicans’ best pickup opportunity this fall. While Valihura is not running again, Robert Rhodunda, an Administration Manager of the Actuarial Department of the American Life Insurance Company and a former Treasurer of the Council of Civic Organizations of Brandywine Hundred. So Rhodunda appears to have a good resume for a candidate in the Brandywine Hundred (hey, if it worked for Lavelle). Williams does have token primary opposition from a guy named Kenneth Dargis.

(14) PETER SCHWARTZKOPF—Safe Democratic. The Majority Leader faces Teabagger candidate Christopher Weeks, a Eric Bodenweiser disciple and stalking horse. My sources say that Weeks and Eric Bodenweiser teamed up to launch the anti-Schwartzkopf website http://onlywhenpigsfly.org/, although Bodenweiser has denied it, and Weeks had no comment. Normally, I would say in a Republican year any Democrat in Sussex County would be in trouble, but Schwartzkopf represents a district probably has all the Democrats in Sussex County in it. I will defer to my Sussex County brethren, but I see no signs that Weeks is a threat to Pete.

(15) VALERIE LONGHURST—Safe Democratic. Longhurst was unopposed in 2008, but this time she is challenged by Republican James Van Houten, a retired career Army veteran who also worked for the Department of Veteran Affairs.

(18) MICHAEL BARBIERI—Tossup. Barbieri defeated Republican Speaker Terry Spence on his second attempt in 2008, and the defeated Speaker is back for revenge. Registration wise, this district is 53% Democratic, so Barbieri should have the edge, but the question is how much he helped by the Obama turnout in 2008. I say a lot, and thus this district is competitive and a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP. In fact, it is a must win for them if they are to take back the House.

(20) NICK MANOLAKOS—Safe Republican. Manolakos was unopposed last time (and yes, the Blue Enigma Party doesn’t count). This time he faces Democrat Francis Swift, Jr., but Manolakos is safe.

(22) JOSEPH MIRO— Miro won reelection with 66% of the vote in 2008. This year, he is challenged by David Ellis. I rank this race as a Lean Republican because I am intrigued by and impressed with Ellis, whose campaign is off to a great start. Miro has the advantage now, but I am keeping an eye on this race as a sleeper.

(23) TERRY SCHOOLEY—Safe Democratic. Schooley won with 75% last time. Her opponent this time is Bill Stritzinger, a developer who tried to turn the Newark Country Club into a high-density project. A metaphor for his campaign: he has a website, but it is not working.

(24) OPEN —Toss-up. When Oberle retired, this became a rare pick up opportunity for the Democrats in a Republican year. This district is much like the 18th in party registration, with the Democrats having a 2 to 1 advantage over Republicans and Independents. On the Democratic side, we have a very impressive candidate in Kay Wilde Gallogly. She is opposed by a DeLuca protégé, Ed Osienski, who has donated to Bill Oberle in the past. The winner faces off against special education teacher Abraham Jones in the general election.

(25) JOHN KOWALKO —Safe Democratic. Progressive Champion John Kowalko won reelection with 73% of the vote in 2008. He is challenged this time by Gordon Winegar III. Who?

(26) JOHN VIOLA—Safe Democratic. Viola won with 80% of the vote last time. This time he is opposed by Hans-Erik Janco. Again, who?

(27) EARL JAQUES—Tossup. Jaques lost to Lofink by 60 votes in 2006, and then beat him by 46 votes in 2008. Lofink has decided against a third rematch. But Jaques is getting a McGlinchey engineered labor challenge as revenge for knocking off Lofink. James Maravelias, the Business Agent of Laborers’ Local 199, is running against Jaques for really no good policy reason, as Jaques has been a reliable Democratic vote this session. The winner faces off against Republican Jay Galloway. The way I read this race, if Maravelias wins the primary, he is a stone cold lock in the general. If Jaques wins, I would expect McGlinchey and his labor minions to support Galloway, making the race a toss up.

(28) BILL CARSON—Safe Democratic. Carson was unopposed last time, but this year he gets a Republican challenger named Karen Minner, a volunteer coordinator at the Delaware Hospital for the Chronically Ill. I think it will be a long time before anyone named Minner wins anything in this state again.

(29) OPEN—Lean Republican. Thornburg is retiring. She says it is because she is to be the Administrator of the Delaware Farm Bureau. I think it is because she barely won reelection with 50.2% of the vote, after a recount of absentee ballots gave her the victory. The district demographics favor the Democrats, but this is a conservative district and I would expect, out of the four GOP retirements, that the GOP would be favored to retain this seat. Republicans Lincoln Willis, of Lincoln Willis Chevrolet in Middletown, and George Phillips are running. The winner of that primary will face off against James McCutchan, a teacher with the Delaware Division For the Visually Impaired.

(31) DARRYL SCOTT—Toss up. Scott forcibly retired double dipper Nancy Wagner in 2008, winning with 53% of the vote. Wagner is not running again. Instead we get former wrestler and current attorney Ron Poliquin and attorney Ron Smith running in the GOP primary. It looks like this is a very competitive GOP primary, which could help Scott should it be divisive or hurt him if it makes the Republican winner well known to the voters. I must digress. Please visit Ron Poliquin’s website. Have your speakers up before you. You will laugh. And is it me, or do you all get the urge to shout “Da plane! Da plane!” And once more for laughs:

(32) BRAD BENNETT—Toss-up. With all our rookies, you have to say that their first race for reelection is a competitive one, especially if they represent a competitive or conservative district. Celia Cohen says the Republicans like their chances with attorney Beth Miller.

(33) ROBERT WALLS—Toss-up. Walls was first elected in 2006, and he was reelected with 54%. The GOP has a primary between Jack Peterman and Steve Rust to determine who faces Walls. In a GOP year in a conservative district, you have to view this race as competitive.

(34) DONALD BLAKEY—Safe Republican. Blakely won with 61% last time, and this time he is challenged by Democrat Jill Fuchs and Independent Teabagger Mike Tedescho. I must say, I am wondering how to pronounce Jill’s name without it sounding like how I think it should like. LOL. Ok, Jill is originally from Brooklyn Heights, New York, having moved to Delaware seven years ago. She is currently serving as president of the Barclay Farms Homeowners Civic Association and is a member of the Manufactured Home Installation Board, which governs installers and inspectors of manufactured homes in the State of Delaware. She is also the Kent County Chair of the Delaware Manufactured Home Owners Association. I am curious to see how this race plays out. If the teabaggers are any impact at all downstate, Tedesco should do well. Perhaps not well enough to win, but maybe well enough to split the conservative Republican vote, and allow Fuchs to win? I doubt the latter, but it is possible. Still, until this race develops a little more, I have to think Blakey is safe.

(35) DAVE WILSON—Lean Republican. We got a great progressive candidate in Jim Westhoff, but I don’t think he will break through in a tough year. Wilson got 61% in 2008 in a good Democratic year, so in a good Republican year, I expect him to be favored. Still, a lot can be said for actual campaigning, so we will keep an eye on this race. Either way, I want Westhoff to run again in two years should he lose.

(36) OPEN—Toss-up. A toss up this far down in conservative Sussex? Why yes, because we have a great well known Democrat in Russ McCabe running. He will face off against Republican Harvey Kenton, who is deep in the development community’s pockets, which is not a good thing downstate, or really anywhere.

(37) RUTH BRIGGS KINGLean Republican. The incumbent, Ruth Briggs King, won the seat in the domino-effect aftermath of Thurman Adams’ death, which led to the election of Rep. Joe Booth to the Senate, which opened up the 37th for a special election that Briggs King won with 53%. The Democrat, Ron Robinson, ran a good campaign, and I was hoping he would seek a rematch in a higher turnout election, but alas, he did not file. Instead, we have Democrat Frank Shade, who was president for many years of the Pumpkin Chunkin Association, so that gives name recognition in the community at least. .

(41) JOHN ATKINSSafe Atkins. Ah, John Atkins. We all know this Republican turned Democrat’s story. No need to rehash it. The good people of the 41st just appear to love this guy as their representative. So I guess they deserve either. The Republican that Atkins outsed in 2008, Gregory Hastings, is back again, to be destroyed by Atkins yet again. The question is not whether Atkins will lose reelection. The question is if the GOP is in the majority after the election, or if they are one seat away from it, which caucus will Atkins join?