Another Day, Another Polling Report [9.20.12]

Polling Firms have been quite busy this week. The big poll yesterday was the Pew Poll showing an 8 point national lead for the President. In the Senate races, multiple polls in three races now show former Governor Tim Kaine, Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Tammy Baldwin breaking out to significant leads in their respective races after being tied or behind forever. It looks like Obama voters in all three races are coming home to the Democratic candidate in each race, showing that the President might have some serious coattails, and if he has that, then the chances are the Dems will pick up the 25 seats they need and more to retake the House of Representatives and hold the Senate.

But first, more on that Pew poll:

Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.

Not only does Obama enjoy a substantial lead in the horserace, he tops Romney on a number of key dimensions. His support is stronger than his rival’s, and is positive rather than negative. Mitt Romney’s backers are more ardent than they were pre-convention, but are still not as enthusiastic as Obama’s. Roughly half of Romney’s supporters say they are voting against Obama rather than for the Republican nominee. With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992, candidates lacking mostly positive backing have lost in November.

Bill Clinton won 370 electoral votes in 1992, and 379 in 1996. As you can see, the President is likely on a similar course to reelection:

Before we get to today’s polling, here are two more pieces of information. First, according to a new poll, Obama holds a solid lead over Romney among small business owners:

Nearly half of small business owners (47 percent) plan to vote for a second term for the president, compared to 39 percent who plan to vote for Mitt Romney, according to a new poll conducted by the George Washington University School of Political Management and Thumbtack.com. Even more importantly, perhaps, the president is perceived as more supportive of small companies by the most coveted group of voters — independents.

Second, the full reveal of Mitt Romney’s sinister character in the 47% secret video has caused massive damage to his campaign among voters. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 43% of voters viewed Mitt Romney less favorably after an excerpt of the now famous hidden camera video was shown to them online. In addition, 59% said they felt Romney unfairly dismissed almost half of Americans as victims. A Gallup poll also finds Americans had a more negative than positive immediate reaction Romney’s comments with 36% saying they make them less likely to vote for him, 20% saying the remarks make them more likely to vote for him, and 43% say the comments won’t make a difference.

NATIONAL POLLS
NATIONAL–AP/GfK: Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 40 (RV)
NATIONAL–Gallup Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 45
NATIONAL–Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 48, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 38 (RV)
NATIONAL–Pew: Obama 51, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (RV)
NATIONAL–Rasmussen Tracking w/Leaners: Obama 48, Romney 48
NATIONAL–YouGov: Obama 49, Romney 44

STATE POLLS
OHIO–Fox News: Obama 49, Romney 42
CALIFORNIA–Field Poll: Obama 58, Romney 34
FLORIDA–Fox News: Obama 49, Romney 44
GEORGIA–InsiderAdvantage–R: Romney 56, Obama 35
MAINE–Maine Peoples Resource Center: Obama 54, Romney 37
MAINE–PPP: Obama 55, Romney 39
MASSACHUSETTS–MassINC for WMUR: Obama 59, Romney 31
MICHIGAN–CNN/ORC: Obama 52, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 42 (RV)

SENATE POLLS
FLORIDA–Fox News: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 49, Connie Mack IV (R) 35
MAINE–Maine Peoples Resource Center: Angus King (I) 44, Charlie Summers (R) 28, Cynthia Dill (D) 15
MAINE–PPP: Angus King (I) 43, Charlie Summers (R) 35, Cynthia Dill (D) 14
MASSACHUSETTS–MassINC for WBUR: Elizabeth Warren (D) 47, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 42
OHIO–Fox News: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 40
TEXAS–Frederick Polls for the Sadler campaign: Ted Cruz (R) 49, Paul Sadler (D) 32, John Jay Myers (L) 6
VIRGINIA–CBS/Quinnipiac: Tim Kaine (D) 51, George Allen (R) 44
VIRGINIA–Fox News: Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 43
VIRGINIA–Washington Post: Tim Kaine (D) 51, George Allen (R) 43
WISCONSIN–CBS/Quinnipiac: Tammy Baldwin (D) 47, Tommy Thompson (R) 47
WISCONSIN–Marquette Law School: Tammy Baldwin (D) 50, Tommy Thompson (R) 41 (LV); Tammy Baldwin (D) 49, Tommy Thompson (R) 41 (RV)