The Polling Report [10.26.12]
I was traveling back from Connecticut yesterday and was preparing for the Hurricane Frankenstorm Sandy Halloween Apocalypse today, so here is your polling report with polls from the last two days. We have a lot of North Carolina polls today, and they are all over the place, but the average of them all puts the state is SLIM ROMNEY territory, but it is only a lead of 1.5 points. Florida too is in the Romney slim category, but also only a lead of 1.5 points. The rest of the swing states are in the Obama column. Indeed, Greg Sargent ran through the latest running polling averages (which, once again, we don’t do here at the DL Polling Report) and finds President Obama leading in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa while Mitt Romney leads in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. The race is essentially tied in Colorado and New Hampshire.
“For the sake of argument, let’s give the tied states to Romney. Here’s the basic state of things: If you give Romney all the states where he is leading or tied in the averages — Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire — he is still short of 270. Meanwhile, if you give Obama just the states where he leads in the averages, he wins reelection.”
Here is our map:
NATIONAL POLLS
AP/GfK: Romney 47, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 44 (RV)
Gallup Tracking: Romney 50, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 47 (RV)
PPP Tracking: Obama 49, Romney 48
UPI/CVoter: Obama 48, Romney 47
ABC/WaPo Tracking: Romney 49, Obama 48
IBD/TIPP Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 45
Ipsos/Reuters Tracking: Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)
Rasmussen Tracking: Romney 50, Obama 47
STATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA (PPIC): Obama 53, Romney 41–STRONG OBAMA
COLORADO (Grove Insight for Project New America–D): Obama 46, Romney 43
COLORADO (Keating Research): Obama 48, Romney 45
COLORADO (NBC News/Marist): Obama 48, Romney 48 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 47 (RV)
COLORADO (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47
COLORADO (Purple Strategies): Obama 47, Romney 46
The average is Obama 48, Romney 46, or SLIM OBAMA
FLORIDA (Grove Insight for Project New America and USAction–D): Obama 47, Romney 45
FLORIDA (Sunshine State News): Romney 51, Obama 46
The average is Romney 48, Obama 46.5, or SLIM ROMNEY
INDIANA (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Romney 55, Obama 41–STRONG ROMNEY
IOWA (PPP for HCAN): Obama 49, Romney 47
IOWA (Gravis–R): Obama 50, Romney 46
The average is Obama 49.5, Romney 46.5, or SLIM OBAMA.
MINNESOTA (St. Cloud University): Obama 53, Romney 45–LEAN OBAMA
NEVADA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 50, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 45 (RV)
NEVADA (Gravis–R): Obama 50, Romney 49
The average is Obama 50.33, Romney 47, or SLIM OBAMA.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (New England College): Obama 49, Romney 46–SLIM OBAMA
NEW MEXICO (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 43–LEAN OBAMA
NEW YORK (Siena): Obama 59, Romney 35–STRONG OBAMA
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama 48, Romney 48
NORTH CAROLINA (Gravis–R): Romney 53, Obama 45
NORTH CAROLINA (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction–D): Obama 47, Romney 44
NORTH CAROLINA (National Research for Civitas–R): Romney 48, Obama 47
The average is Romney 48.25, Obama 46.75, or a SLIM ROMNEY lead.
OHIO (American Research Group): Obama 49, Romney 47
OHIO (CNN/ORC): Obama 50, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 44 (RV)
OHIO (Purple Strategies): Obama 46, Romney 44
The average is Obama 49, Romney 45.25, or SLIM OBAMA
OKLAHOMA (Sooner Poll): Romney 58, Obama 33–STRONG ROMNEY
PENNSYLVANIA (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama 49, Romney 43–LEAN OBAMA
VIRGINIA (Fox News): Romney 47, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 46, Obama 45 (RV)
VIRGINIA (PPP for HCAN): Obama 51, Romney 46
VIRGINIA (Purple Strategies): Obama 47, Romney 47
The average is Obama 47 Romney 46.5, or SLIM OBAMA
WISCONSIN (PPP for HCAN): Obama 51, Romney 45
WISCONSIN (Grove Insight for USAction/Project New America–D): Obama 48, Romney 43
The average is Obama 49.5, Romney 44, or LEAN OBAMA
SENATE POLLS
CALIFORNIA (USC/Los Angeles Times): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 55, Elizabeth Emken (R) 38–STRONG DEM
CONNECTICUT (Gotham Research Group for the Murphy campaign): Chris Murphy (D) 47, Linda McMahon (R) 41–LEAN DEM
INDIANA (Anzalone-Liszt for the DSCC): Joe Donnelly (D) 47, Richard Mourdock (R) 40
INDIANA (McLaughlin and Associates for the Mourdock campaign): Joe Donnelly (D) 44, Richard Mourdock (R) 44, Andy Horning (L) 6
The average is Donnelly 45.5, Mourdock 42, or SLIM DEM
MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen): Elizabeth Warren (D) 52, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 47–LEAN DEM
NEW MEXICO (PPP): Martin Heinrich (D) 52, Heather Wilson (R) 44–LEAN DEM
NEVADA (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 48, Shelley Berkley (D) 45 (LV); Heller 46, Berkley 46 (RV)–SLIM GOP
NEW YORK (Siena): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 67, Wendy Long (R) 24–STRONG DEM
NORTH DAKOTA (Mellman Group for the Heitkamp campaign): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 48, Rick Berg (R) 44–LEAN DEM
PENNSYLVANIA (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 52, Tom Smith (R) 40–STRONG DEM
GOVERNOR POLLS
NEW HAMPSHIRE (New England College): Maggie Hassan (D) 45, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 45
INDIANA (Benenson Strategy Group for the Gregg campaign): Mike Pence (R) 46, John Gregg (D) 40, Rupert Boneham (L) 6
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 50, Walter Dalton (D) 37, Barbara Howe (L) 5
NORTH DAKOTA (Essman/Research): Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) 59, Ryan Taylor (D) 28
Very good, much more realistic
Keep deluding yourself. Your map is a hilarious farce. How confused you will be when Romney becomes President. Liberals just dont get that saying stuff over and over and over just doesnt make it true. I suspect the lies that have been told about the Benghazi attack will start hitting the polls real soon. Interesting video I watched today with even Kirsten Powers hammering the administration.
Patrick-
Are you privy to some info unavailable to the rest of us? If not , you might want to STFU. Have a nice day.
@P “Keep deluding yourself. Your map is a hilarious farce.”
You can get 2:1 odds on your beliefs at several betting sites…. So many deluded bettors. Such a bargain for you!!
Enjoy.
I like how polls = lies, except when they show Republicans leading. Benghazi was a screw up that cost 4 American lives. Iraq was a screw up that cost several thousand American lives and we still reelected the guy.
You gotta wonder why they’re even polling some of these states like CA, NY and OK.
AQC – Most of the time it’s aimed at some other candidate, but knowing where that candidate stands compared to Obama is useful, too.
“Liberals just dont get that saying stuff over and over and over just doesnt make it true.”
But when conservatives say stuff over and over and over, it DOES make it true.
LOL, Patrick. Everything I say here is based on evidence, and that evidence is polling. Everything you have said here has been pulled directly from your ass.
So Rusty is now accepting of the fact that Obama is winning right now and is likely to win reelection. Interesting.
This might belong in the Open Thread, but apparently the math-deficient wingnut unskewer of polls thinks that Nate Silver’s work is invalid because Nate is “thin and effeminate”.
Which seems to be the conservative response to math and science they can’t wrap their minds around — that somehow the proficient people are gay or something.
As if being gay is a bad thing.
Another positive polling day for Obama.
Obama has had positive momentum ever since Oct 13 (his low point in this campaign).
NYTimes (Nate Silver) has him back up to a 3:1 favorite.
Yes, LE. The polls that came out today will be in tomorrow’s Polling Report, which will be published at 7 pm. But here is a sneak peak: Obama moves to 332 Electoral Votes.