Landslides and Coattails

Barack Obama seems very likely to be elected president tomorrow, barring some unforeseen calamity such as the Rapture.    My mother still doesn’t believe it, and she won’t until she sees it with her own eyes.  As an aside, the economic turmoil has finally affected my family, as it has many of yours and no doubt will affect countless others, in that my mom was laid off her job on Saturday.   Her fears of finding a job as a 56 year old woman are real.    Tomorrow may indeed bring some much needed hope to her and millions of others who have suffered during the last eight years.   But, despite all the polls showing Obama ahead, she has never quite believed that we will win.  “The Republicans will stop at nothing to steal this election, they have before.”    No amount of me telling her that their efforts to steal this election this year have largely failed will dissuade her from that notion.   It does not matter that the U.S. Supreme Court have shut down the GOP’s voter suppression tactics in Ohio.   It does not matter the Democrats control the Secretary of State offices in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and other states.    She has always said we need to win this election by a landslide so that they can’t steal it.

And it looks like that is what is about to happen.   What is a landslide?    There are two kinds.

The reelections of Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 were what I call GIGANTIC WIPEOUT LANDSLIDES (and the capital letters are necessary when referring to them).  In 1972, Nixon won 61% of the vote and 520 electoral votes.   In 1984, Reagan won 59% of the vote and 525 electoral votes.   Lyndon Johnson also won a huge landslide victory over Barry Goldwater in 1964, winning 61% of the vote and 486 electoral votes.    Barack Obama will not be enjoying a victory such as that tomorrow.  For in all those elections, the victor won nearly all the states.   That won’t, and I dare say, can’t, happen now.   Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Texas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, and 4 electoral votes out of Nebraska all are guaranteed to vote for John McCain tomorrow.

So that eliminates the possibility of an upper 400’s to 500 electoral vote count landslide.   And John McCain’s wins in those states will prevent Obama from reaching the 60% popular vote plateau.

But Obama can win what I call a major landslide.   Major landslides are where both the electoral and popular vote counts are decisive and significant margins.  Think of 1952, 1980 and 1988.   In 1952, Eisenhower won 55% of the vote and 442 electoral votes.  In 1980, Reagan won a 9 point victory in the popular vote, garnering 50% of the vote nationwide, but Anderson’s third party candidate allowed him to win an electoral college gigantic landslide of 489 electoral votes.   Without Anderson, Reagan’s popular vote would have been higher and electoral vote lower, mirroring Eisenhower’s major landslide in 1956.  In 1988, George H.W. Bush won the popular vote with 53% and 426 electoral votes.    A major landside usually produces electoral vote margins below 450, but above 300.   And the winner of a major landslide usually garners between 52 and 58% of the popular vote.

That is what Obama can win tomorrow.   I project that he will garner 406 electoral votes, and 55% of the popular vote.   I posted a map yesterday.    Now, the question is what kind of coattails will this landslide produce. In many parts of the country, down-ticket candidates will have the wind at their backs tomorrow. Obama not only leads the polls in their states, but also has a better ground game. I’m convinced that in these conditions, Democrats will win some shocking upsets.

I think Delaware could be one of those states.   The latest SUSA poll of Delaware reveals both Obama and Markell winning 62% of the vote.   Such a win at the top of the ticket may well propel Karen Weldin Stewart to a close victory over John Brady.   It will land Matt Denn in the Lt. Governorship.   And it may affect our General Assembly races.   For example, I think the Obama-Markell landslide in Delaware will elect Dr. Mike Katz tomorrow.    What other races in the General Assembly will Obama’s coattails bring over to the Dems?