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Wednesday Open Thread [4.15.15]
![Wednesday Open Thread [4.15.15]](http://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/DL.Open_.Thread.White_-240x180.png "Wednesday Open Thread [4.15.15]")
Jason is always fond of London’s odd gambling market, which you can find a bookie to bet on everything it appears. And the reason he is fond of it is because, to him, it is a true indicator of polling intention, because people are betting their real money on whether a certain candidate can win. And sure, you can put money down on an outlier candidate with high odds, but that candidate better have a realistic shot for the nomination and the Presidency. For example, if you put money on Ben Carson, you are a fool.
Hillary is by far and away the odds on favorite. Some outfits have her as an 11/10 favorite, or 5/4, or 6/5, or even money at 1/1.
Jeb Bush is next in line as a 7/2 favorite, or 4/1, or 5/1. Marco Rubio’s odds fall in a range between 7/1 and 11/. Scott Walker’s odds similarly range from 7/1 to 12/1 (though most have him in the double digits behind Rubio.
DL Approval Ratings: Auditor Doesn’t Do His Job, and He Gets Low Ratings. Imagine that.
64% of Delaware Liberal readers disapprove of Auditor Tom Wagner (R). 51% strongly disapprove of him. Only 28% approve. That he continues to get reelected will be one of the unanswerable mysteries of life. Kinda like how the Charcoal Pit is considered a good place to eat.
Here is the remaining schedule:
Wednesday — Treasurer Ken Simpler (R)
Thursday — Insurance Commissioner Karen Weldin Stewart (D)
Friday — New Castle County Executive Tom Gordon (D)
Treasurer Simpler’s results should be interesting. He’s hasn’t really done much yet to approve or disapprove of, and he is not said anything overtly annoying or overly Republican yet.
Tuesday Open Thread [4.14.15]
![Tuesday Open Thread [4.14.15]](http://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/DL.Open_.Thread.Blue_-240x180.png "Tuesday Open Thread [4.14.15]")
Nate Cohn: “Mr. Rubio’s struggle to break through is a powerful reminder that winning a presidential primary is not just about skill as a politician. It’s about positioning, and Mr. Rubio, at the moment, is in a much worse position than many assessments of his political talent would suggest. In basketball terms, he’s boxed out.”
“His central problem is that Jeb Bush has found considerable support from the party’s mainstream conservative and moderate donors in the so-called invisible primary — the behind-the-scenes competition for elite support that often decides the nomination… Mr. Bush’s pre-emptive bid to build elite support has denied Mr. Rubio the opportunity to consolidate the center-right wing of the party. Perhaps this wouldn’t be a big problem if Mr. Rubio were a favorite of the conservatives skeptical of Mr. Bush’s candidacy, but the field is full of candidates who are equally good or better fits for many conservative voters.”
He’s not running for President. He is running for Vice President.
DL Approval Ratings: No one lives in the Middle but Tom Carper
45% strongly disapprove of Senator Tom Carper’s job performance. An additional 21% somewhat disapprove. Only 31% approve in any way, somewhat or strongly, of the Senator. These are not unexpected numbers. When you play both sides of the aisle, both sides of the aisle will grow to dislike you. The middle ground the Senator seeks to never move from (but if he has to he will move right) is not the place you live at in politics. It’s the place you come to to compromise with those on other side. If you start out in the middle ground, then you have no where to go but to the right.
This is why liberals strongly dislike Tom Carper. And it will probably never change.
How many of them are there?
It’s the early 1980’s. You are a Sci-Fi fan. That means you loved the Star Wars and Star Trek movies. Remember V? As in V: The Original Miniseries and V: The Final Battle and then V: The Series that lasted for one season. It was a show about human-looking aliens arriving on Earth, allegedly in peace. They had a bargain for the Earth: they would cure cancer and give humans their technology in exchange for allowing them to use some of Earth’s natural resources to manufacture a chemical that would save their home planet’s environment. Or Something.
But they did not come in peace. They came here to harvest us for food, and to take all of the Earth’s water. Oh yes, and they were not humans. They were not even mammals. They were lizards. There is a scene, shown in the promo above, where two shuttle craft land at an industrial plant, and out come untold hundreds of Visitors. A plant worker asks “How many of them are there?”
That’s how I feel about Republicans running for President.
The DNC had some ‘Game of Thrones’ fun last night.
Last night the fifth season of Game of Thrones premiered on HBO. So the DNC decided to have a little fun and portray each of the Republican candidates as a family House in the fantasy series. Some of these are quite good.
Monday Open Thread [4.13.15]
![Monday Open Thread [4.13.15]](http://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Hillary.2-240x180.png "Monday Open Thread [4.13.15]")
[T]he kickoff told us quite a bit about the kind of campaign Clinton intends to run, and the key differences from her previous candidacy. There’s also increased clarity Clinton’s rationale: “Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion.” As one-sentence summaries go, that’s not a bad pitch. But as yesterday’s developments unfolded, I found myself thinking about history.
The historical angles Benen thought of for Hillary’s candidacy: 1) The opportunity for the first woman president; 2) an instant intra-party frontrunner without precedent; 3) Clinton brings a unique resume to voters (she would be the first president to be both a cabinet secretary and a statewide officer since 1856); 4) Parties usually struggle to win three in a row (Since 1952, it has only been done once, twice if you consider 2000 a win for the Democrats that got stolen, which I do).
DL Approval Ratings: Coons Rides High
A senior elected official said to me at an event over the weekend that these Delaware Liberal polls are hurting the state of Delaware. He says staffers obsess over them, and that is distracting to the pressing state business that these staffers or employees must take of. This person said, somewhere a Social Security check is not being cut because there is a poll about John Carney.
So I apologize to the people of Delaware, but the polls must go on. To be honest, I was surprised how positive this poll was for Senator Coons, given his recent vacillation over the Iran Deal. To be clear, Senator, to side with the Republicans over the Iran Deal makes you one. You either are in the Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran caucus, or you are not. And voting for the Corker Bill means you want war, not a deal that will prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
Regardless, 59% approve of Senator Coons’ job performance, 23% strongly. 38% disapprove.
Monday Daily Delawhere [4.13.15]
Fort Delaware, on Pea Patch Island in the Delaware River, near Delaware City.
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