Open Thread

We haven’t had a polling report in a while, but suddenly we have all a slew of polling info just released this week. Come inside for the polling goodness…

I wrote this last night about the fact that Ernie Lopez, Gerald Hocker and Greg Lavelle ending their statewide political futures with their votes against marriage equality yesterday and about the chances that Cathy Cloutier, on the other hand, had elevated her statewide future based on her yes vote:

The problem, though, is the Republican Party. When I say that the next Republican Governor of Delaware will support marriage equality, I say that because no one who doesn’t support marriage equality will ever win a statewide race going forward. They will barely crack 40% of the vote. So for a Republican to win, he or she will have to be for marriage equality. BUT… For the foreseeable future (at least until 2016), the Republican Party’s base is violently against marriage equality, and no Republican candidate can win the primary or get the nod at the state convention without being against marriage equality. Maybe the victory today will speed the death of the rabid bigots at the heart of the state GOP, and I hope it does. But assuming it doesn’t, the GOP is caught in a horrible catch-22: it can only nominate anti-gay candidates, and it can only win with pro-equality candidates.

And this, in response to how losing could be so addictive to our state GOP:

How can losing be so addictive? Easy. It allows these social conservatives to play a role they love so well: that of the victim. They love whining about how oppressed they are. And nothing proves their oppression more than defeat after defeat after defeat at the ballot box and in roll call votes in the General Assembly. And nothing brings in the dollars of retired old bigots more than hate and fear and victimhood.

Jonathan Bernstein agrees with me, or I guess I agree with him (depending on who wrote what first) in his latest article in the Washington Monthly.....

"All of these things we've said about what the president could do, should do, might have, could have, but the central thing to keep in mind is his opponents -- you talk about taking them out to dinner, making nice with them -- these people, politically, want to cut his heart out and throw his liver to the dogs." -- Dan Rather, in an interview on the Chris Matthews Show. Today is Election Day in South Carolina's First Congressional District, made necessary by the elevation of Representative Tim Scott to the U.S. Senate upon the resignation of Senator Jim DeMint. Disgraced former Governor Mark Sanford is the Republican nominee, and given the demographics and partisan breakdown of the district, he is or should be the runaway frontrunner. But he is not. Two weeks ago, he was down by 10 points to the Democratic nominee, Elizabeth Colbert Busch, the sister of comedian Stephen Colbert. In a poll yesterday, Sanford had recovered to lead by 1 point, so the election is a toss up. Even if Colbert Busch loses, argues The Fix's Chris Cillizza and Sean Sullivan, the outcome might benefit Democrats in part because Sanford would be a high-profile reminder of "the narrative that Republicans have a woman problem," especially considering Sanford is due in Court on trespassing charges tomorrow after he allegedly trespassed on his ex wife's property and broke into her home several weeks ago.

At this weekend's NRA convention you could buy 'Obama' mannequins designed for use as target practice which actually bleed when shot. It is things like that which makes me have almost no sympathy for families like the Sparks family in Kentucky, the family that had a five year old son shoot and kill his 2 year sister with his "My First Rifle." That family may be suffering horribly, but in my opinion they deserve that suffering for their irrespondibility and negligence. I know the two things are not directly connected, and I don't know the particular political views of Mr. and Mrs. Sparks as it relates to the NRA v. Obama, but still. Irresponsibility and selling and marketing guns to children has been a direct result of the NRA's efforts to fight any and all regulations. So when children of gun lovers actually die, it is very difficult to feel sympathy for the parents.

And WTF is up with Tom Gordon's CAO?

Grimaldi, who is County Executive Tom Gordon’s chief administrative officer, got in a shoving match during a Delaware Police Athletic League meeting in late 2011 or early 2012, witnesses said. And he was charged with offensive touching after a 2010 altercation that Grimaldi said was his reaction to an attack, court records show.

Having a government gig apparently means never having to be accountable, I guess.

[...]If your "way of life" involves handing deadly weapons to five-year olds, your way of life is completely screwed up and you should change it immediately because it is stupid and wrong. (And, again, also, too: goddammit, "learning to use and respect a gun" means at least knowing that the fking thing is loaded when it's sitting in the corner of the parlor like it's a damn umbrella stand or something, and we should talk about that part, too.) It is not in any way "normal" to hand a kindergartner a firearm. If a mother from the inner-city of, say, Philadelphia did that, and the kid subsequently shot his sister to death, Fox News never would stop yelling about the crisis in African American communities and the Culture Of Death, and rap music, too. If your culture is telling you that children who have only recently emerged from toddlerhood should have their own guns, then your culture is deadly and dangerous and that should concern you, too. If your culture demands that, in the face of a general national outrage over the killing of other children, your politics work to loosen the gun laws you have, as they apparently did in Kentucky, then your culture is making your politics stupid and wrong and you should change them, too.[...]

Michael Tomasky: "How stupid does the Senate background-check vote look now, I ask the pundits and others who thought it was dumb politics for Obama and the Democrats to push for a vote that they obviously knew they were going to lose. I'd say not very stupid at all. The nosedive taken in the polls by a number of senators who voted against the bill, most of them in red states, makes public sentiment here crystal clear. And now, for the first time since arguably right after the Reagan assassination attempt--a damn long time, in other words--legislators in Washington are feeling political heat on guns that isn't coming from the NRA. This bill will come back to the Senate, maybe before the August recess, and it already seems possible and maybe even likely to have 60 votes next time."

McKay Coppins notes that with teabagging criticism of the immigration reform effort "grow[ing] louder, many Republican operatives, donors, and consultants are bracing for an outcome that would be even worse, politically, than the demise of the bill: A fierce, national, right-wing backlash that drowns out the GOP's friendlier voices, dominates Telemundo and Univision, and dashes any hopes the party had of making inroads to the Hispanic electorate by 2016." I personally think we are going to get both nightmare outcomes for the GOP. The demise of the bill will be accomplished by having the right act all explicitly racist, anti-immigrant and insane.

In Pennsylvania, a new Quinnipiac poll has such horrible numbers for the Republican Governor that I am now worried that he will bag a reelection campaign all together, in favor of a Republican that might have a chance. Gov. Tom Corbett trails all three major Democratic challengers.

This was a deadly weekend for the City of Wilmington, with 4 shooting incidents in about 24 hours. Mayor Dennis Williams did not return Adam Taylor's calls for his article this weekend, but one of the WPD's PIOs spoke to WDEL this AM on the subject:

There have been several retirements among Senate Democrats this year. Rockefeller, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, and now Max Baucus of Montana. Many Beltway pundits tell us that means the Democratic majority in the Senate is thus in danger. That may be the case in West Virginia, where Rockefeller is likely to be replaced by Republican Shelly Moore Capito. But in Montana and South Dakota, these retirements have likely increased the Democrats' odds of holding onto these seats.